This week’s race: Kobalt 400
Traditional Name: Las Vegas 400
Other Notable Names: Shelby 427, UAW - Daimler Chrysler 400, CarsDirect.com 400
The big news out of Las Vegas this week was that this track will host two races in 2018. Speedway Motorsports Incorporated will move their fall New Hampshire Motor Speedway event to Las Vegas Motor Speedway and the statistical data will build at a greater clip.
For now, with only one race per season, fantasy players make whatever inferences they can from the three races in the past three years. Of course, Vegas is not alone. Last week’s race on the similarly-configured Atlanta Motor Speedway as well as a number of other doglegged and double-doglegged tracks provide a lot of data.
10 best drivers at Las Vegas
Over the past three races, these drivers have the best average finish on this track, (current configuration only).1. Brad Keselowski
Last three races average finish at Atlanta: 3.00
Career avg. finish: 16.8 in 8 attempts
Keselowski struggled through four seasons without a single top-25 at Vegas. He was awarded the pole by NASCAR’s rule book in 2013 and finished that race third. Since then, he has swept the top 10 and accumulated two wins.
2. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Last three races average finish at Atlanta: 4.67
Career avg. finish: 13.7 in 17 attempts
Junior has not yet won at Vegas, but he has come close on three occasions. He finished second in 2003, 2008 (his first year with Hendrick Motorsports), and 2014. Since climbing behind the wheel of the No. 88, he has finished in the top 10 in all but one race.
3. Joey Logano|
Last three races average finish at Atlanta: 5.33
Career avg. finish: 10.8 in 8 attempts
In his first four races on this track with Joe Gibbs Racing, Logano earned one top-10. In his last four efforts with Penske Racing he has finished worse than 10th only once. Last year he gave up the lead to his teammate late in the Kobalt 400 and now he’s focused on retribution.
4. Kyle Busch
Last three races average finish at Atlanta: 7.50 (2 starts)
Career avg. finish: 13.5 in 12 attempts
Busch has been occasionally great on this track with five top-fives in 12 starts that included a victory in 2009. He has earned even more fantasy points recently with a pair of fourths in his last three starts that came from as far back as 23rd on the grid. Those place-differential points add up.
5. Ryan Newman
Last three races average finish at Atlanta: 7.67
Career avg. finish: 16.1 in 16 attempts
Newman finished 13th in last year’s Kobalt 400 and that has hurt his average a little. He was seventh in 2014 and third in 2015, and that pattern of two strong runs followed by a struggle has repeated itself three times during his career. He could be due another solid run this week.
6. Martin Truex Jr.
Last three races average finish at Atlanta: 9.00
Career avg. finish: 14.3 in 11 attempts
Truex makes the list based on consistency coupled with one strong finish in the past three years. He enters the weekend with a seven-race streak of top-20s highlighted by his runner-up finish in 2015. He is one of the stronger drivers on this track type and cannot be disregarded.
7. Paul Menard
Last three races average finish at Atlanta: 10.00
Career avg. finish: 16.5 in 10 attempts
One thing is almost certain: Menard will finish better than he qualified this week. In 10 previous starts at Vegas, he has improved from his qualification run eight times and finished exactly where he started once.
8. Kasey Kahne
Last three races average finish at Atlanta: 11.67
Career avg. finish: 13.5 in 13 attempts
If one expands the criteria just a little, Kahne would have a much better number. He finished second in 2013, which gives him a four-year average of 9.25 and anytime a driver can crack the 10th-place mark, they are desirable.
9. Denny Hamlin
Last three races average finish at Atlanta: 12.00
Career avg. finish: 12.8 in 11 attempts
Hamlin takes a top-10 position based on a single strong run in 2015. He scored his second career top-15 in that race, but it is surrounded by a pair of results outside the top-10. For a driver of Hamlin’s caliber and cost, that is simply not very good.
10. Ryan Blaney
Last three races average finish at Atlanta: 12.50
Career avg. finish: 12.5 in 2 attempts
With only two Vegas attempts, it is difficult to know what Blaney will do this week. His sixth-place finish in last year’s Kobalt 400 was certainly encouraging, however.
Rank | Driver | 3 Yr. Avg. Finish | Attempts |
1. | 3.00 | 3 | |
2. | 4.67 | 3 | |
3. | 5.33 | 3 | |
4. | 7.50 | 2 | |
5. | 7.67 | 3 | |
6. | 9.00 | 3 | |
7. | 10.00 | 3 | |
8. | 11.67 | 3 | |
9. | 12.00 | 3 | |
10. | 12.50 | 2 | |
|
|
|
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11. | 12.67 | 3 | |
12. | 13.67 | 3 | |
13. | 14.00 | 3 | |
14. | 16.33 | 3 | |
15. | 16.67 | 3 | |
16. | 17.50 | 2 | |
17. | 18.67 | 3 | |
18. | 20.33 | 3 | |
19. | 21.67 | 3 | |
20. | 22.00 | 3 | |
21. | 22.67 | 3 | |
22. | 23.00 | 3 | |
23. | 25.00 | 3 | |
24. | 28.67 | 3 | |
25. | 34.00 | 3 | |
26. | 35.67 | 3 | |
27. | 36.00 | 3 | |
28. | 37.50 | 2 | |
29. | 39.00 | 2 | |
Drivers with Only One Start | |||
| 26.00 | 1 | |
| 33.00 | 1 | |
| 38.00 | 1 | |
| 38.00 | 1 | |
Exercise Caution
Most caution flags: 14, 2009 Shelby 427Fewest caution flags: 2 (2 times), 2000 CarsDirect.com 400, 1998 Las Vegas 400
Average number of caution flags per race: 6.8
Average in 2017: 7.00
Final Caution, last five races:
March 2016: 226 of 267: 4-car accident in turn 2 (Carl Edwards, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, and Kurt Busch)
March 2015: 195 of 267: 1-car accident in turn 2 (Carl Edwards)
March 2014: 222 of 267: debris
March 2013: 237 of 267: fluid
March 2012: 261 of 267: debris
Most caution laps: 66, 2009 Shelby 427
Fewest caution laps: 9, 1998 Las Vegas 400
Average number of caution laps per race: 32.6
Average in 2017: 36.0
Leading the way
Most leaders: 16, 2007 UAW - Daimler Chrysler 400Fewest leaders: 7, 2000 CarsDirect.com 400
Average number of leaders: 10.9
Average in 2017: 11.5
Most lead changes: 28, 2007 UAW - Daimler Chrysler 400
Fewest lead changes: 13, 2000 CarsDirect.com 400
Average number of lead changes: 20.4
Average in 2017: 23.0
Victory Lane
Last five winners at Las Vegas (starting position):March 2016: Brad Keselowski (4)
March 2015: Kevin Harvick (18)
March 2014: Brad Keselowski (2)
March 2013: Matt Kenseth (18)
March 2012: Tony Stewart (7)
Worst starting position for race winner: 25th, Matt Kenseth UAW - DaimlerChrysler 400
A race at Las Vegas has been won by the pole sitter 1 time and from the front row 3 times in 19 races.
Recent races won from the pole:
Kyle Busch, 2009 Shelby 427
Outside pole:
2014, Brad Keselowski Kobalt 400
2008, Carl Edwards UAW-Dodge 400
Active winners at Las Vegas:
Jimmie Johnson: 4
Matt Kenseth: 3
Carl Edwards: 2
Brad Keselowski: 2
Kevin Harvick: 1
First time winners at Las Vegas:
None, Jeff Burton scored his sixth win in the 1999 Las Vegas 400
All-time Winners at Las Vegas:
Top 10
Jimmie Johnson: 4
Matt Kenseth: 3
Carl Edwards: 2
Jeff Burton: 2
Brad Keselowski: 2
Kyle Busch: 1
Tony Stewart: 1
Sterling Marlin: 1
Mark Martin: 1
Kevin Harvick: 1
Jeff Gordon: 1
All-time winners
Similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks (Atlanta, Charlotte, Texas, Las Vegas, Kansas, Chicagoland, and Kentucky)
Top 10
Jimmie Johnson: 30
Jeff Gordon: 24
Dale Earnhardt: 23
David Pearson: 18
Bobby Allison: 16
Cale Yarborough: 15
Tony Stewart: 15
Darrell Waltrip: 14
Richard Petty: 14
Bill Elliott: 13
Carl Edwards: 13
Matt Kenseth: 13
Running at the End
The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Las Vegas race they started:Kevin Harvick (16)
Jimmie Johnson (15)
Jamie McMurray (14)
Clint Bowyer (11)
Denny Hamlin (11)
Martin Truex Jr. (11)
Brad Keselowski (8)
Joey Logano (8)
AJ Allmendinger (7)
Trevor Bayne (6)
Derrike Cope (5)
Reed Sorenson (5)
Austin Dillon (4)
Danica Patrick (4)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (4)
Kyle Larson (3)
Ryan Blaney (2)
Chris Buescher (1)
Matt DiBenedetto (1)
Jeffrey Earnhardt (1)
Cole Whitt had been running at the end of his first two starts, but he retired early in 2016 with a vibration
Great Starts
Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:Kasey Kahne: second (2004)
Jimmie Johnson: sixth (2002)
Kevin Harvick: eighth (2001)
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 10th (2000)
Denny Hamlin: 10th (2006)
Kasey Kahne won the pole in his first Vegas start (2004)
Current Streaks
At Las VegasDale Earnhardt Jr., six top-10s
Brad Keselowski, four top-10s
Joey Logano, three top-10s
Kevin Harvick, two top-10s
On Similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks (Atlanta, Charlotte, Texas, Las Vegas, Kansas, Chicagoland, and Kentucky)
Matt Kenseth, eight top-10s
Kasey Kahne, five top-10s
Kevin Harvick, three top-10s
Joey Logano, three top-fives
Martin Truex Jr., two top-10s
Chase Elliott, two top-10s
In 2016-2017
Joey Logano, eight top-10s
Kyle Busch, two top-10s
Kasey Kahne, two top-10s
