This week’s race: Quaker State 400 by Advance Auto Parts
Traditional Name: Kentucky 400
Other Notable Names: None
Kentucky Speedway waited several years before getting their first NASCAR Sprint Cup race. In the meantime, they hosted quite a few XFINITY and Camping World Truck Series events as well as some IndyCar races, which slowly wore down the track.
With only five Cup events in the books, it was time to repave.
Repaving gave the track an opportunity to reconfigure the banking as well, so Kentucky added three degrees to turns one and two, which makes this track unbalanced and creates some interesting obstacles for drivers.
The old statistics may or may not be relevant, but luckily this course belongs to the list of similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks and fantasy players can get a reality check by how racers run on Atlanta Motor Speedway, Charlotte Motor Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway, and Chicagoland Speedway.
10 best drivers at Kentucky
Over the past three races, these drivers have the best average finish on this track.1. Kyle Busch
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 2.67
Career avg. finish: 3.8 in 5 attempts
Kentucky is Busch’s best track in terms of career average finish, but that may ultimately mean nothing at all given this track’s recent reconfiguration. He is not particularly strong on repaves, but he has shown signs of life in practice.
2. Matt Kenseth
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 3.33
Career avg. finish: 4.6 in 5 attempts
So far so good, Kenseth has a perfect record of top-10s on this track with a worst result of only seventh. His victory in 2013 came in his first attempt with Joe Gibbs Racing and he has swept the top five in the past three races. This is a good track for the organization regardless of the reconfiguration.
3. Joey Logano
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 5.00
Career avg. finish: 10.2 in 5 attempts
Logano began to turn things around at Kentucky the first year he moved into the Penske Racing No. 22. Often change is good for everyone involved; despite Joe Gibbs Racing posting solid results on this track, Logano could manage a best of only 14th in his first two starts.
4. Kevin Harvick
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 8.33
Career avg. finish: 10.4 in 5 attempts
Harvick finished outside the top 15 for only the second time in 2016 at Daytona International Speedway last week. This is a good place for him to come and rekindle his momentum, but a top-five could be a difficult proposition since his best effort on this course was a seventh in 2014.
5. Jimmie Johnson (tied with Ku Busch)
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 9.33
Career avg. finish: 7.4 in 5 attempts
Johnson continues to make mistakes in races, which means that neither his career averages or practice speeds can be trusted. For the record, he is one of three drivers this weekend with a perfect record of top-10s on this track along with Kenseth and Ky Busch.
5. Kurt Busch (tied with Johnson)
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 9.33
Career avg. finish: 11.2 in 5 attempts
Busch has an interesting record at Kentucky: he has finished in the top 10 in every other race. Unfortunately all of those came in odd numbered years and a quick look at the calendar will show that 2016 ends in an even digit.
7. Ryan Newman
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 12.33
Career avg. finish: 15.0 in 5 attempts
Newman got off to a great start in 2011 with a fourth-place finish, but he would score only one more top-10 in the next four races. That came as a third in 2014 and seriously impacts his three-year average. Last year, he could only manage a 20th, however.
8. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 12.67
Career avg. finish: 14.4 in 5 attempts
Like Ku Busch, Earnhardt has scored strong runs in every other Kentucky race he started. The good news is that Junior’s strong runs have come in the even numbered years. That suggests he should be strong this week.
9. Brad Keselowski
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 13.33
Career avg. finish: 9.6 in 5 attempts
Kez’s three-year average is negatively impacted by crash damage he sustained in 2013. That 33rd-place finish will age out of this formula next year, and in all likelihood he will become one of the top picks in 2017. The new configuration makes it hard to predict outright, but with two wins under his belt, Keselowski is liable to score at least another Kentucky top-10.
10. Carl Edwards
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 14.00
Career avg. finish: 13.4 in 5 attempts
On tracks that host only one race per year, a single strong run can often get a driver into the top 10—if it is strong enough. Edwards’ fourth-place finish last year helped give him the 10th-best average, which is actually fortunate because he should be one of the favorites—but with only two top-15s to his credit, he is likely to fly under the radar screen, but the new configuration should benefit this driver who likes to race difficult setups.
Rank | Driver | Avg. Finish | Attempts |
1. | 2.67 | 3 | |
2. | 3.33 | 3 | |
3. | 5.00 | 3 | |
4. | 8.33 | 3 | |
5. | 9.33 | 3 | |
5. | 9.33 | 3 | |
7. | 12.33 | 3 | |
8. | 12.67 | 3 | |
9. | 13.33 | 3 | |
10. | 14.00 | 3 | |
|
|
|
|
11. | 14.33 | 3 | |
12. | 15.00 | 3 | |
13. | 15.33 | 3 | |
14. | 17.67 | 3 | |
14. | 17.67 | 3 | |
16. | 20.00 | 3 | |
17. | 20.33 | 3 | |
18. | 21.33 | 3 | |
18. | 21.33 | 3 | |
20. | 21.67 | 3 | |
21. | 22.00 | 3 | |
22. | 23.33 | 3 | |
23. | 24.00 | 2 | |
24. | 25.00 | 3 | |
25. | 26.00 | 3 | |
26. | 26.67 | 3 | |
27. | 29.00 | 3 | |
28. | 31.50 | 2 | |
29. | 32.00 | 3 | |
30. | 32.50 | 2 | |
31. | 37.00 | 3 | |
32. | 37.50 | 2 | |
Drivers with Only One Start | |||
| 13.00 | 1 | |
| 38.00 | 1 | |
| 41.00 | 1 | |
| 42.00 | 1 | |
Exercise Caution
Most caution flags: 11, 2015 Quaker State 400 by Advance Auto PartsFewest caution flags: 4, 2012 Quaker State 400
Average number of caution flags per race: 7.4
In 2016: 7.2
Final Caution, last five races:
July 2015: Lap 221 of 267: 1-car accident in turn 2: (Kyle Larson)
June 2014: Lap 215 of 267: 1-car accident in turn 1: (Aric Almirola)
June 2013: Lap 248 of 217: 1-car spin in turn 2: (Jimmie Johnson)
June 2012: Lap 210 of 267: 2-car accident in turn 2: (Ryan Newman and Regan Smith)
July 2011: Lap 263 of 267: 1-car accident in turn 2: (Clint Bowyer)
Most caution laps: 49, 2015 Quaker State 400 by Advance Auto Parts
Fewest caution laps: 24, 2012 Quaker State 400
Average number of caution laps per race: 36.2
In 2016: 37.7
Leading the way
Most leaders: 12, 2011 Quaker State 400Fewest leaders: 3, 2014 Quaker State 400 by Advance Auto Parts
Average number of leaders: 7.0
In 2016: 9.1
Most lead changes: 20, 2011 Quaker State 400
Fewest lead changes: 11, 2013 Quaker State 400 by Advance Auto Parts
Average number of lead changes: 14.6
In 2016: 18.8
Victory Lane
Last five winners (starting position):July 2015: Kyle Busch (ninth)
June 2014: Brad Keselowski (first)
June 2013: Matt Kenseth (16th)
June 2012: Brad Keselowski (eighth)
July 2011: Kyle Busch (first)
Worst starting position for race winner: 16th, Matt Kenseth: 2013 Quaker State 400
A race at Kentucky has been won by the pole sitter 2 times and from the front row 2 times in 5 races.
Active winners at Kentucky:
Brad Keselowski: 2
Kyle Busch: 2
Matt Kenseth: 1
Top 10 on all similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks all time:
Jimmie Johnson: 25
Jeff Gordon: 16
Dale Earnhardt: 14
Tony Stewart: 12
Matt Kenseth: 11
Richard Petty: 11
Bobby Allison: 11
Mark Martin: 10
Cale Yarborough: 10
Carl Edwards: 9
Kyle Busch: 9
Darrell Waltrip: 9
Recent races won from the pole:
Brad Keselowski, 2014 Quaker State 400
Kyle Busch, 2011 Quaker State 400*
* Lineup set by NASCAR’s rule book
First time winners at Kentucky:
None: Brad Keselowski, 2012 Quaker State 400 earned his seventh win in this race.
Running at the End
The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Kentucky race they started:AJ Allmendinger (5)
Greg Biffle (5)
Kurt Busch (5)
Kyle Busch (5)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (5)
Carl Edwards (5)
Kevin Harvick (5)
Jimmie Johnson (5)
Kasey Kahne (5)
Matt Kenseth (5)
Brad Keselowski (5)
Joey Logano (5)
Casey Mears (5)
Paul Menard (5)
David Ragan (5)
Tony Stewart (5)
Martin Truex Jr. (5)
Austin Dillon (3)
Danica Patrick (3)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (3)
Michael Annett (2)
Reed Sorenson (2)
Cole Whitt (2)
Trevor Bayne (1)
Clint Bowyer crashed out of the first race he started in 2011, but has been running at the end of the last four.
Jamie McMurray crashed out of the first race he started in 2011, but has been running at the end of the last four.
Great Starts
Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:Kyle Busch: first (2011*)
Jimmie Johnson: third (2011*)
Ryan Newman: fourth (2011*)
Carl Edwards: fifth (2011*)
Matt Kenseth: sixth (2011*)
Brad Keselowski: seventh (2011*)
David Ragan: eighth (2011*)
Kurt Busch: ninth (2011*)
Kyle Busch was awarded the pole in his first start, by NASCAR’s rule book.
Kyle Larson qualified sixth on time in his first start in 2014.
* inaugural race at track
Current Streaks
At Kentucky
Kyle Busch, five top-10s
Jimmie Johnson, five top-10s
Matt Kenseth, five top-10s
Kevin Harvick, three top-10s
Joey Logano, three top-10s
Brad Keselowski, two top-10s
Jeff Gordon ended his career with a perfect record of five top-10s
On similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks (Kentucky, Atlanta, Charlotte, Texas, Las Vegas, Kansas, and Chicagoland)
Kurt Busch, 12 top-10s
Kevin Harvick, six top-10s
Chase Elliott, three top-10
Matt Kenseth, two top-10s
Brad Keselowski, two top-10s
Ryan Newman, two top-10s
In 2016
Joey Logano, five top-10s
Kyle Busch, two top-10s
Daytona is often a streak killer. Kurt Busch saw a streak of 10 top-10s end, Kevin Harvick snapped a four-race streak, Carl Edwards lost a three-race streak, and Tony Stewart’s budding mark of two consecutive all ended to accidents or spins. Notably, Logano ascends to the top of this list after the Coke Zero 400 because he spun Ku Busch out of third.
