This week’s race: Bojangles’ Southern 500
Traditional Name: Southern 500
Other Notable Names: Mountain Dew Southern 500, Pepsi Southern 500
Often fantasy owners can look to other tracks for help setting their roster, but the only track like Darlington Raceway is Darlington Raceway.
With its unique shape this is a difficult course to master. Compounding that issue is the fact that Darlington has hosted only one race per year since 2004 and only 11 drivers in this week’s field were around to double-down then.
If fantasy owners think limited track time is not an obstacle to handicapping, simply look back one year. Only one driver who scored a top 5 in 2014 finished in the top 10 last year. Kevin Harvick won the 2014 race as was fifth in 2015. Two others swept the top 10, but most of the remaining strong runners last year struggled one season prior. The 2015 Southern 500 average finishing position of last year’s top-10 finishers was 17.4.
Look for drivers with strong recent records at Darlington, but one should note that is not the only benchmark this week.
10 best drivers at Darlington
Over the past three races, these drivers have the best average finish on this track.1. Kevin Harvick
Last three races average finish at Darlington: 3.67
Career avg. finish: 16.4 in 19 attempts
NASCAR is filled with little ironies. In terms of career average finishes, Darlington is Harvick’s third-worst track behind Atlanta Motor Speedway and North Carolina Motor Speedway. When that NC track hosted NASCAR events, it was a good comparative for Darlington because of the rough surface. Obviously Harvick figured something out about Darlington in recent years.
2. Kyle Busch
Last three races average finish at Darlington: 6.33
Career avg. finish: 13.0 in 11 attempts
Busch is another example of irony. Prone to driving too hard on occasion, he has managed to keep his car clean and finish 11th or better in his last six Darlington attempts. Only one of these was a top-five, but his 2008 Dodge Challenger 500 victory offsets that.
3. Carl Edwards
Last three races average finish at Darlington: 7.00
Career avg. finish: 11.6 in 12 attempts
Edwards’ last five Darlington attempts are bookended by great results. He finished second in 2011 and won last year. He wasn’t all that bad in between either with two sevenths and a 13th to his credit. Edwards has finish on the lead lap in all but two of his starts on this track.
4. Denny Hamlin
Last three races average finish at Darlington: 8.00
Career avg. finish: 6.5 in 10 attempts
Hamlin has not only been strong at Darlington recently, he has never seriously struggled. In fact, his worst finish came in the past three attempts and a 19th in 2014 has not moved the needle much. That is because it is surrounded by top-three results on either side. In 10 starts, Hamlin has amassed eight top-10s.
5. Jimmie Johnson (tied with Gordon and Kenseth)
Last three races average finish at Darlington: 8.67
Career avg. finish: 9.1 in 17 attempts
Several drivers with normally great records struggled last year. Johnson entered the 2015 edition of this race with three consecutive top-fives that included a victory in 2012. His career average finish of better-than 10th says that he has always excelled on this course.
5. Jeff Gordon (tied with Johnson and Kenseth)
Last three races average finish at Darlington: 8.67
Career avg. finish: 11.5 in 35 attempts
Gordon now has four more chances to get a 476th career top-10 at the Cup level. That might be hard to accomplish this week because Darlington is a difficult track to navigate even for drivers without some rust on them. Gordon’s last three attempts on this track have been consistently sliding down the order and he finished 16th last year.
5. Matt Kenseth (tied with Johnson and Gordon)
Last three races average finish at Darlington: 8.67
Career avg. finish: 16.3 in 22 attempts
Like Johnson, Kenseth has a victory in the past three years to spike his average. His came in the 2013 edition of the Southern 500. Also like the No. 48, Kenseth experienced trouble last year and finished 21st. Both drivers should rebound nicely this week.
8. Kyle Larson
Last three races average finish at Darlington: 9.00
Career avg. finish: 9.0 in 2 attempts
Darlington is not supposed to be kind to rookies, so when a driver scores a top-10 in their inaugural attempt it is notable. In two starts, Larson has been perfect in that regard and coming off last week’s Michigan win he should be able to keep the streak alive.
9. Ryan Newman
Last three races average finish at Darlington: 11.00
Career avg. finish: 12.2 in 17 attempts
Newman is probably going to need more than a top-15 to get back into Chase contention. In his last three attempts at Darlington, he finished 10th twice and 13th once. Still, that is a much better result than he had in 2012 when he lost a lap to crash damage and finished 23rd.
10. Greg Biffle
Last three races average finish at Darlington: 12.00
Career avg. finish: 13.6 in 15 attempts
Along with Johnson and Gordon—both of whom are also profiled in the top 10 this week, Biffle is the only other active driver with multiple top-10s. Unfortunately those came back in 2005/2006 and he has only one top-10 in his last four attempts.
Rank | Driver | Avg. Fin | Attempts |
1. | 3.67 | 3 | |
2. | 6.33 | 3 | |
3. | 7.00 | 3 | |
4. | 8.00 | 3 | |
5. | 8.67 | 3 | |
5. | 8.67 | 3 | |
5. | 8.67 | 3 | |
8. | 9.00 | 2 | |
9. | 11.00 | 3 | |
10. | 12.00 | 3 | |
| |||
11. | 13.00 | 3 | |
12. | 13.33 | 3 | |
13. | 15.33 | 3 | |
14. | 16.00 | 3 | |
15. | 16.50 | 2 | |
16. | 17.00 | 3 | |
16. | 17.00 | 3 | |
18. | 18.33 | 3 | |
19. | 19.00 | 2 | |
20. | 20.33 | 3 | |
21. | 22.00 | 3 | |
22. | 25.00 | 3 | |
23. | 25.33 | 3 | |
24. | 26.50 | 2 | |
25. | 28.00 | 3 | |
25. | 28.00 | 2 | |
27. | 28.67 | 3 | |
28. | 30.67 | 3 | |
29. | 34.33 | 3 | |
30. | 37.00 | 3 | |
31. | 40.50 | 2 | |
31. | 40.50 | 2 | |
Drivers with Only One Start | |||
| 24.00 | 1 | |
| 25.00 | 1 | |
| 30.00 | 1 | |
| 31.00 | 1 | |
| 35.00 | 1 | |
| 39.00 | 1 | |
| 41.00 | 1 | |
| 42.00 | 1 | |
Exercise Caution
Most caution flags: 18, 2016 Bojangles’ Southern 500Fewest caution flags: 0, 1963 Southern 500
Average number of caution flags per race: 7.2
In 2016: 7.3
Final Caution, last five races:
September 2015: 356 of 367: 1-car spin in turn 1 (Jeb Burton)
April 2014: 372 of 374 to set up second green-white-checkered: 2-car accident on backstretch (Kurt Busch and Clint Bowyer)
May 2013: 335 of 367: 1-car accident in turn 2 (Kasey Kahne)
May 2012: 362 of 368 to set up green-white-checkered: 2-car accident in turn 2 (Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman)
May 2011: 365 of 370 to set up green-white-checkered: 3-car accident on frontstretch (Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Clint Bowyer)
Most caution laps: 101, 1974 Southern 500
Fewest caution laps: 0, 1963 Southern 500
Average number of caution laps per race: 45.9
In 2016: 39.9
Leading the way
Most leaders: 17, 1982 Southern 500Fewest leaders: 2, 1964 Rebel 300
Average number of leaders: 8.4
In 2016: 8.7
Most lead changes: 41, 1982 Southern 500
Fewest lead changes: 4, 1950 Southern 500
Average number of lead changes: 18.7
In 2016: 17.0
Victory Lane
Last five winners at Darlington (starting position):September 2015: Carl Edwards (13)
April 2014: Kevin Harvick (1)
May 2013: Matt Kenseth (7)
May 2012: Jimmie Johnson (2)
May 2011: Regan Smith (23)
Worst starting position for race winner: 43rd, Johnny Mantz – 1950 Southern 500 in a field of 75. Since then Ward Bruton (2001) and Bobby Labonte (2000) won from the 37th position.
A race at Darlington has been won by the pole sitter 20 times and from the front row 37 times in 112 races.
Recent races won from the pole:
Kevin Harvick: 2014 Bojangles’ Southern 500
Dale Jarrett: 1997 TranSouth Financial 400
Dale Earnhardt Sr.: 1993 TranSouth Financial 500
Dale Earnhardt Sr.: 1990 Heinz Southern 500
Active winners at Darlington:
Jeff Gordon: 7
Jimmie Johnson: 3
Greg Biffle: 2
Kyle Busch: 1
Denny Hamlin: 1
Kevin Harvick: 1
Matt Kenseth: 1
Carl Edwards: 1
Top-10 All-time Winners:
David Pearson: 10
Dale Earnhardt, Sr.: 9
Jeff Gordon: 7
Darrell Waltrip: 5
Cale Yarborough: 5
Bobby Allison: 5
Bill Elliott: 5
Harry Gant: 4
Buck Baker: 3
Dale Jarrett: 3
Jimmie Johnson: 3
Richard Petty: 3
Herb Thomas: 3
First time winners at Darlington:
2011: Kurt Busch, Southern 500
1988: Lake Speed, TranSouth 500
1980: Southern 500, Terry Labonte
1962: Southern 500, Larry Frank
1961: Southern 500, Nelson Stacy
1950: Southern 500, Johnny Mantz
Running at the End
The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Darlington race they started:Kyle Busch (11)
Denny Hamlin (10)
Martin Truex Jr. (10)
Paul Menard (9)
Brad Keselowski (7)
Regan Smith (6)
Landon Cassill (5)
Aric Almirola (4)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (3)
Austin Dillon (2)
Kyle Larson (2)
Trevor Bayne (1)
Ryan Blaney (1)
Jeb Burton (1)
Matt DiBenedetto (1)
Matt Kenseth crashed and failed to finish in his first race in 1999, but he has been running at the end of 21 races since.
Danica Patrick had been running at the end of three consecutive races, but crashed out last year.
Great Starts
Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:Ryan Newman: fifth (2002)
Jimmie Johnson: sixth (2002)
Tony Stewart: sixth (1999)
Brad Keselowski: seventh (2009)
Carl Edwards: seventh (2004)
Kyle Larson: eighth (2015)
Joey Logano: ninth (2009)
Denny Hamlin: 10th (2006)
Kasey Kahne won the pole in his first attempt in spring 2004.
Current Streaks
At DarlingtonKyle Busch, four top-10s
Kevin Harvick, three top-fives
Kyle Larson, two top-10s
Darlington has no active comparative track
In 2016
Denny Hamlin, six top-10s
Joey Logano, three top-10s
Jamie McMurray, three eighth-place finishes
Kevin Harvick, two top-fives
Carl Edwards, two top-10s
Jimmie Johnson, two top-10s
