Opening Day! We have fourteen games on the full day slate. DraftKings slices and dices it up into a wide variety of contests while FanDuel is promoting one monolithic battle. Since it’s still March, cool weather around the league can affect home run potential. Fortunately, we’re getting in ahead of the “April showers” today. Only the White Sox-Royals game has precipitation in the forecast, and that’s only a 50 percent risk.
When looking at “bargains” on FanDuel, we’ll typically focus on hitters who are $3,200 or lower. For DraftKings, the threshold is around $3,800. In general, we’ll only highlight players at the top end of that scale if they have star potential.
Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.
Editor’s Note: Stay ahead of the competition from wire to wire with rankings, customizable projections, trade evaluator, exclusive columns and more in our Season Pass. And start using optimized lineups on Yahoo!, DraftKings and FanDuel with our DFS Toolkit!
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Onto the bargain plays...
FANDUEL & DRAFTKINGS BARGAINS
1 – Brad Keller – SP – Kansas City Royals (FanDuel $6,200 / DraftKings $4,800)
Keller is the top pitching bargain on both sites. The former Rule 5 pick improved his slider in the second half of 2018 on the way to more strikeouts. With a high ground ball rate and stingy quality of fly ball contact allowed, Keller should ably handle the homer-or-bust White Sox offense. Kauffman Stadium helps.
2 – Francisco Cervelli – C – Pittsburgh Pirates (DraftKings $3,400)
FanDuel offers a 1B/C slot. Let’s be honest, you’ll almost always pick a first baseman. You still need a catcher on DraftKings, and Cervelli seems like the best intersection of price and performance. The OBP-forward backstop is expected to bat fifth in the lineup. He’s visiting Great American Ballpark, a venue known for its hitter friendly tendencies. Luis Castillo had a rough spring, leading me to wonder if he’s a new Kevin Gausman.
3 – Greg Bird – 1B – New York Yankees (FanDuel $2,300 / DraftKings $3,600)
It’s always nice to land bargain left-handed sluggers at Yankee Stadium. It’s even nicer when those bargains are facing scrubby-dub-dub Andrew Cashner. The Orioles “ace” is, in a word, terrible. Baltimore’s bullpen is quite shaky too. With Aaron Hicks on the shelf, the Yankees have the flexibility to start both Bird and Luke Voit.
4 – Adam Frazier – 2B – Pittsburgh Pirates (FanDuel $2,600 / DraftKings $3,200)
The Pirates leadoff hitter is an obvious top target in Cincinnati. Castillo has noted difficulties against left-handed hitters, allowing a massive .373 wOBA last season. Frazier’s contact-oriented approach nullifies Castillo’s biggest advantage – a high swinging strike rate. Home runs aren’t likely but can never be ruled out in Cincy.
5 – Brandon Drury – 3B – Toronto Blue Jays (FanDuel $2,100 / DraftKings $3,000)
Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann is one of the weaker pitchers available to target. As a word of warning, his command and control profile can produce surprisingly solid early season results. The Blue Jays have worked with Drury on his plate discipline. He is now adept at working counts and has non-trivial power. He’s expected to serve as the Opening Day leadoff hitter while keeping third base warm for a certain uber prospect.
6 – Elvis Andrus – SS – Texas Rangers (FanDuel $2,800 / DraftKings $3,300)
Prior to an injury-marred 2018 campaign, Andrus was considered a steady, high floor DFS target. He’s expected to bat third for a relatively decent Rangers offense opposite southpaw Jon Lester. For Andrus, with health comes speed. Lester matchups always tease stolen base potential. His place in the lineup could lead to some run production too.
7 – Jesse Winker – OF – Cincinnati Reds (FanDuel $2,700 / DraftKings $3,300)
Winker has a far tougher matchup than the Pirates I’ve mentioned. Jameson Taillon took off last season after introducing a new and improved slider. He’s now considered one of the better pitchers in the league. Prior to hitting the disabled list with a shoulder injury, Winker was in the midst of a breakout campaign, blending a high-OBP approach with burgeoning 20 home run power. This matchup isn’t designed to accentuate Winker’s strengths, but he’s still priced to move.
ALSO CONSIDER
Eric Lauer (vs. SFG) is priced and projected similarly to Keller, and he’s arguably facing an easier opponent. The Giants lineup lacks any semblance of threat. Case in point: washed up Brandon Crawford is expected to bat cleanup. Lauer isn’t a stud by any measure, but he does post consistently playable numbers.
Jose Berrios (vs. CLE) draws an utterly broken Indians offense. He costs more than the other bargains, yet he’s still an obvious bargain play on the basis of facing a lineup with multiple Triple-A quality hitters. Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are out. Even Jason Kipnis is on the shelf. That leaves Carlos Santana as the lone successful hitter on the roster.
Although his matchup against Justin Verlander is difficult, get used to dusting off Austin Meadows (vs. HOU) against right-handed pitchers. He’s tabbed as the leadoff hitter.
Garrett Cooper (vs. COL) has a warm-weather venue (unfortunately, it’s pitcher friendly) and a mid-lineup role. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland needs every bit of command to perform at the level he established last season. There’s a chance, however remote, that he’ll catch way too much plate in his 2019 debut.
