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This article outlines the best daily fantasy MLB plays of the day at every position. We take a comprehensive look to uncover these core recommendations, factoring respective salaries into the analysis.
Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.
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PITCHER
Top Play: Zack Wheeler – Phillies (vs Braves)
Without Ronald Acuna, the Braves feature a moderately strikeout prone, slightly below average offense. Wheeler will likely deliver the most innings tonight and also has the best (but still unlikely) shot at a complete game. His strikeout projection is on par with other top arms like Gerrit Cole, Freddy Peralta, and Lucas Giolito.
Pivot: Joe Musgrove – Padres (at Marlins)
The Marlins feature one of the most strikeout prone lineups in the league. Of the most whifftastic teams, only the Marlins and Cubs have seen their strikeout rate increase over the last months. The others like Detroit and Seattle have whittled away at their greatest flaw. It’s been a long time since Musgrove dominated early in the season. It’s quite possible he’s been negatively affected by the new grip aid regime. Even so, he has a chance to dance with the aces tonight despite a mid-tier price tag. He’s only a little riskier than Wheeler for a similar median and upside projection.
Also Consider: Gerrit Cole, Freddy Peralta, Lucas Giolito, Frankie Montas, Eduardo Rodriguez, Alex Cobb, Yusei Kikuchi, Zach Plesac, J.A. Happ
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CATCHER
Top Play: Salvador Perez – Royals (vs Wily Peralta)
Although Peralta has a new toy (a splitter) which has helped to revive his career, it’s still a mistake to look at him as anything more than a pitch-to-contact ground ball guy who doesn’t do anything to avoid hard contact. Perez is a bane to such pitchers. He leads all catchers in both home run and generic hit potential. As always, his role in the Royals offense is a bonus.
Pivot: Ryan Jeffers – Twins (vs Alex Cobb)
Mitch Garver is on paternity leave so this should be Jeffers’ game. Cobb has proven to be a difficult matchup for everyone this season. His strikeout rate is at a career-high, and he isn’t allowing home runs. He has a long history of homeritis which could rear its head at any time. Jeffers hits best against pitches down in the zone. He has about a one-in-five shot at a home run.
Also Consider: Gary Sanchez, Will Smith, J.T. Realmuto, Eric Haase, Max Stassi, Sean Murphy, Tyler Stephenson, Luis Torrens, Cal Raleigh
FIRST BASE
Top Play: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Blue Jays (at Tylor Megill)
CitiField is perhaps the worst venue for power outcomes this season. Even so, Vladito has healthy across-the-board potential (besides stolen bases). While Megill has pitched well in five starts, he’s reaching the point where scouting reports should be catching up to him. Toronto’s is also the first above average offense he’ll face. Megill has some homer-prone characteristics although the jury remains out on whether he will allow a slightly or very elevated home run rate. Shohei Ohtani is a spicier play, but Guerrero is the better value.
Pivot: Ryan Zimmerman – Nationals (at Jorge Lopez)
Regular readers will know one of the most important attributes I hunt for in a matchup is opposing batted ball tendencies. Zimmerman and Lopez are both ground ball guys, a situation which favors the pitcher. However, Zimmerman costs next to nothing, has an above average projection, and will bat either fourth or fifth – likely as the designated hitter. Lopez rarely finishes five innings so Zim will have some chances against relievers, some of whom are fly ball pitchers.
Also Consider: Shohei Ohtani, Pete Alonso, Rhys Hoskins, Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Gittens, LaMonte Wade
SECOND BASE
Top Play: Jose Altuve – Astros (vs Kolby Allard)
This is a typical Altuve recommendation. He has better than a one-in-five chance to homer thanks in part to power-friendly Minute Maid Park. Altuve is among the likeliest to deliver a hit of any kind today and thus also rates as one of the best multi-hit targets. Allard relies on cutters and changeups to keep hitters off balance. While this isn’t an ideal matchup for Altuve, several of the Rangers relievers are exploitable. Allard also has a history of short, volatile outings.
Pivot: Ozzie Albies – Braves (at Wheeler)
Some of the best pivots pit good, underpriced players against the top pitchers of the day. At his price, if Albies delivers a hit with a run or RBI, you’ll break even. If he homers or otherwise has a big game, you’ll not benefit directly, you’ll also have an in-built advantage against everybody who uses Wheeler this evening. Citizens Bank Park could help provide a little nudge in Albies’ favor.
Also Consider: Chris Taylor, Jonathan Schoop, Jorge Polanco, Jonathan India, Brandon Lowe, Jake Cronenworth
THIRD BASE
Top Play: Nolan Arenado – Cardinals (at Tyler Mahle)
Mahle is a good pitcher, but he has one glaring weakness – his home stadium. This season, he’s allowed 2.41 HR/9 at home and 0.45 HR/9 on the road. This is roughly in line with his career trends (2.16 HR/9 at home, 0.91 HR/9 on the road). Arenado isn’t exactly thriving in his first season away from Coors Field, but he does still have extreme pulled, fly ball rates. He has a one-in-three shot at a home run.
Pivot: Eugenio Suarez – Reds (vs Wade LeBlanc)
Although we haven’t directly discussed any Reds yet, the Cincy stack should be given strong consideration. LeBlanc is poorly suited to Great American Ballpark. As a soft-tossing, pitch-to-contact southpaw with an under 40-percent ground ball rate, he depends on miss-hit fly balls to survive outings. At GABP, even miss-hits can soar several rows into the seats. Suarez’s biggest weakness is strikeouts which should be ameliorated by LeBlanc.
Also Consider: Justin Turner, Jose Ramirez, Manny Machado, Rafael Devers, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Josh Harrison, Hunter Dozier, Jeimer Candelario
SHORTSTOP
Top Play: Trea Turner – Nationals (at Lopez)
This is a coin flip between Turner and Fernando Tatis Jr. Both star shortstops face exploitable foes. Both matchups also aren’t quite ideal. For Turner, he skews to ground ball contact, putting a slight damper on his home run potential against a ground-balling starter. Tatis Jr. has to overcome a pitcher friendly venue. Turner is the slightly better value for a similar projection, hence why he was chosen as the top play.
Pivot: Gleyber Torres – Yankees (at Rodriguez)
As I’ve been saying for months, the home runs will eventually fly for Torres. While he’s not the guy who hit 39 dingers in 2019, his batted ball profile should easily support a 25-or-more homer pace. Sure enough, he’s homered three times in his last five games, doubling his season total in the process. Rodriguez is a neutral matchup. The main draw is Torres’ price tag which is discounted a good 20 percent.
Also Consider: Fernando Tatis Jr., Chris Taylor, Willy Adames, Carlos Correa, Bo Bichette, Tim Anderson, Taylor Walls, Zack Short
OUTFIELD
Top Plays: Juan Soto – Nationals (at Lopez)
Jesse Winker – Reds (vs LeBlanc)
Outfield seems like a place to save money. Soto (and Shohei Ohtani) stand out as the only slam dunk high ceiling plays. As such, expect them to be chalky. Like the other Nationals profiled in this column, Soto’s ground ball traits aren’t a perfect match against Lopez. However, he’s so locked in since the All-Star Break that it could be worth overlooking this shortcoming. Winker could slip through the cracks due to a lefty-vs-lefty matchup. While Winker has scuffled a bit at times without the platoon advantage, LeBlanc actually has reverse splits due to his changeup-forward approach.
Pivots: Justin Upton – Angels (at Happ)
Max Kepler – Twins (vs Cobb)
Upton was on fire when he landed on the IL about a month ago. With any luck, he can pick up where he left off. A pairing against a mid-tier, inconsistent southpaw might be just what he needs. Upton has a long history of superior walk and home run rates with the platoon advantage. Kepler is swinging his whammie stick since Independence Day. He has six home runs over his last 60 plate appearances. Cobb doesn’t have notable handedness splits though he is susceptible to fly ball hitters.
Also Consider: Shohei Ohtani, Aristides Aquino, Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Andrew McCutchen, Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, Randy Arozarena, Franmil Reyes, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker, Jorge Soler, Joey Gallo, Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Harrison, Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, Ryan McKenna, Ben Gamel
