The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
In one of my points leagues, Dylan Carlson was dropped in early July and I quickly added him to my roster. Ever since, he’s hit five home runs with a respectable batting average. In another one my leagues -- this one being a category league -- Alek Manoah was dropped after his 3.1 innings pitched, four earned run outings on June 2nd vs the Marlins. And again, ever since adding him, he’s been a very helpful addition to that roster. My point? The waiver wire never sleeps. If you’ve been reading my introductions for these waiver wire pieces, you’d know that this is a point I’ve been emphasizing all season. I managed to grab these players because I remained active on the wire. The waiver wire will always be here to help you and your championship chances.
More than this, almost every league has at least one team that has given up at this point. With team’s starting to understand that they’re out of contention -- in redraft, dynasty, and keeper formats -- there’s going to be less competition for the hottest waiver wire options down the stretch. If you’re still competing, take advantage of this; the time to stop being proactive isn’t now, keep your foot on the gas. In this week’s waiver wire piece, I’ll once again be highlighting several players who I believe could help you over these final few weeks. Let’s get into it![[ad:athena]]
Points League Options
(Players rostered in under 50% of ESPN leagues)
Luis Urias 3B/2B/SS, Brewers (41% rostered)
Dating back to his days as a prospect, Urias has always known how to make contact at a high rate. In December 2013, he was signed as an international free agent by the Padres. He ended up playing his entire minor league career in the Padres’ system, and he performed admirably. Over 2,501 minor league at-bats -- a lengthy minor league career -- Urias earned a .308/.397/.433 slash line with 36 home runs and 42 stolen bases. When he was originally signed, power wasn’t thought of as one of his strengths. However, 19 of his 36 career home runs came over his final 295 minor league at-bats playing in Triple-A. As he gained more experience, his game power improved, and now the same thing is happening at the major league level.
Over his first 372 MLB at-bats, he hit just six home runs (21 extra base hits). So far in 2021 (353 at-bats), he’s hit 16 home runs (39 extra base hits). What’s changed? His quality of contact has considerably improved. Through 272 batted ball events, he’s sporting a career high 111.5 max exit velocity, 9.6% barrel rate, and 40.4% hard hit rate. More than this, his 41.1% ground ball rate is a career low and his 21.1% line drive rate is a career high. In all, his profile now looks like that of a hitter who should be hitting home runs at a solid clip, and that’s exactly what he’s been doing. Per ESPN fantasy, over the last 30 days, he’s accumulated more fantasy points than Paul Goldschmidt, J.T. Realmuto, Kris Bryant, and more; except this isn’t all that surprising when you consider the improvements he’s made. At this point in the season, Urias should be owned in most points leagues.
Jed Lowrie 2B, Athletics (39% rostered)
I’ve said it before and I will continue to say it until the end of time: boring is useful. Jed Lowrie has 4,370 career MLB at-bats. He was drafted by the Red Sox in 2005 and he’s currently playing in his age-37 season. Through 12 seasons, he’s hit double digit home runs in five of them. Three of those five double digit home run seasons have come since 2017, including 2021. In other words, it’s fair to conclude that as his career has progressed, he’s put more of an emphasis on hitting home runs. And for this reason, he’s become a more viable points league asset as he’s aged.
On the season (379 at-bats), he’s earned a .253/.329/.409 slash line with 13 home runs. To back this production, Lowrie currently has a career high 109.9 max exit velocity, 9.8% barrel rate, and a 47.6% hard hit rate. He’s had thousands of career batted ball events and at age-37, he has hit the hardest ball of his career. Baseball is unpredictable. Baseball is beautiful. Nothing in Lowrie’s profile raises any clear red flags and he should continue to be a productive -- albeit unspectacular -- points league option for the rest of 2021.
Tanner Houck SP, Red Sox (19% rostered)
“The right-handed Chris Sale” is what I like to call him, as do many others. And when you watch him pitch -- while also knowing who Chris Sale is -- this comparison makes a lot of sense. Both throw from a distinct low-three quarters arm slot and both throw a slider that’s very effective due to their arm slots. Be that as it may, where they differ is clear, as one is one of the best pitchers of his time, and the other is a 25-year-old looking to make a name for himself in the majors.
Through 47.2 career major league innings pitched, Houck has a 2.08 ERA (3.12 SIERA) and a 65/16 K/BB (25.9% K-BB). He’s struck out six or more batters in seven of his nine career starts and it’s clear that striking out batters at a high rate will always be a part of his game. Still, his overall upside remains capped due to the lack of a consistently effective offspeed offering. Chris Sale, for example, utilizes a changeup. If Sale lacked an effective changeup, he would likely never be the pitcher we’ve come to know and love. I’m not saying that an effective offspeed offering will help Houck become an ace, but I’m also not saying it won’t.
Houck is armed with a splitter that he’s not using nearly as much as he should. The pitch in and of itself has above average movement when compared to splitter’s that are similar to Houck’s. Additionally, his release points on his pitches are consistent, which helps him successfully tunnel his pitches. With increased splitter usage, his entire arsenal could become more effective, as he would be giving batters a fourth pitch to worry about. Beyond that, it would allow him to truly compete third time through the order and subsequently, he’d pitch deeper into games on a regular basis. As a whole, Houck is a very talented arm who should help provide points for your fantasy rosters down the stretch. Don’t expect him to pitch too deep into any of his remaining games, but he’s worthy of a start every time he takes the mound.
Lewis Brinson OF, Marlins (32% rostered)
At one point in time, Brinson’s upside was universally tantalizing. In fact, coming into the 2017 season, MLB Pipeline ranked him as the 13th best prospect in all of baseball, ahead of Austin Meadows, Bo Bichette, and others. Looking back now, it’s easy to mock this ranking, but at the time, it made sense. Coming into 2017, Brinson’s game power, ability to draw walks at a high rate, ability to hit for average, and speed were all on full display. The only real knock against him at that point -- and to this day -- was his tendency to strikeout at a too high rate. His strikeout rate did gradually improve as he gained more minor league experience, but it’s clear that this habit has followed him into the majors.
Over his first 963 major league plate appearances, Brinson has a 29.3% strikeout rate. Why? He’s truly struggled against breaking pitches and the chart below helps us visualize these struggles:
| xwOBA | Average Exit Velocity | Whiff Rate | |
| 2017 | .233 | 86.4 mph | 54.8% |
| 2018 | .211 | 85.4 mph | 46.2% |
| 2019 | .201 | 80.9 mph | 43.4% |
| 2020 | .251 | 84.6 mph | 39.0% |
| 2021 | .259 | 91.2 mph | 37.2% |
As we can see, he’s struggled against breaking pitches his entire career. But at the same time, his production against breaking pitches has been trending in the right direction. If Brinson can continue to improve against breaking pitches, there’s real reason to be optimistic about his future outlook. His ability to hit for average is still in question, but Brinson’s power upside seems more reliable than ever.
Alex Colome RP, Twins (47% rostered)
I typically don’t recommend adding pitchers who have been performing inconsistently all season, but Colome is an exception. He’s not an add because of his skillset or talent, he’s an add because of his current situation. For the time being, Colome is the go-to man in the 9th in Minnesota. Hansel Robles was the team leader in saves before he was traded to the Red Sox on July 30th. His departure immediately opened up a high leverage spot in the Twins’ bullpen. In addition to this, Taylor Rogers is still dealing with a middle finger injury that could linger for the rest of 2021. Colome is now the most experienced late-inning arm in that bullpen, so he’ll likely continue to see most of the save opportunities for the Twins down the stretch.
Unfortunately, he’s been performing at a mediocre level in his age-32 season. Over 43.2 innings pitched, he has a 4.12 ERA (4.21 SIERA), 38/18 K/BB, and a 53.7% ground ball rate. He’s always been a guy who doesn’t strike out many batters while inducing ground balls at a high rate. Being this type of pitcher means your command and control have to be consistent or your performance will be erratic. Well, Colome’s four-seam fastball command hasn’t been sharp this year and the pitch’s average velocity is sitting at a career low 93.9 mph. Spotty command and decreased velocity have resulted in the pitch getting hit hard all season (career high 94.7 mph average exit velocity). With all this being said, he is currently on a 6.1 innings pitched scoreless streak dating back to July 31st. Given Colome’s job security and experience in the later innings, you could do worse if you need help in your relief pitching spot. Just don’t expect him to be a fully reliable option for the rest of the season.
Elieser Hernandez SP, Marlins (18% rostered)
Back in May 2012, the righty was signed as an international free agent by the Astros. He remained in their farm system from 2012-2017 and earned a 3.32 ERA (3.36 FIP) and 384/112 K/BB (17.0% K-BB) over 385.1 innings pitched. At the time, he was known as a pitcher who routinely attacked the zone with a three pitch mix: his four-seam fastball, changeup, and slider. Fast-forward to 2021 and he’s been virtually the same pitcher over his first 181.0 major league innings pitched -- for the most part. His zone rate is sitting at 46.2%, but he’s been primarily a fastball/slider pitcher.
Now, I’ve personally come to believe that having strong control can be a blessing and a curse. Strong control helps pitchers limit walks, which forces the batter to swing the bat, meaning they’ll either make contact or they won’t. The issues begin to arise when this good control is mixed with spotty command. The pitcher is out there throwing strikes, but inconsistent command is resulting in them putting pitches right in a batter’s wheelhouses and getting punished for it. I believe this somewhat describes what Hernandez has dealt with so far in the majors.
His ability to regularly attack the zone is legitimate, but sometimes his location is off and he gets hurt, particularly by the long ball. The 26-year-old has a career 49.7% fly ball rate and 31.5% ground ball rate. Seems like these percentages are next to the wrong batted ball type, but unfortunately, Hernandez is indeed a fly ball pitcher. Both his slider and his four-seamer have allowed fly balls at a rate greater than 44% over the course of his career. But his changeup has allowed just a 34.8% fly ball rate, while inducing ground balls 48.5% of the time. Increasing his changeup usage while also commanding the pitch well could help him induce more ground balls. On top of this, it would give batters another pitch to worry about, which could help him pitch deeper into games.
Hernandez has only thrown 7.1 innings pitched this year, as he’s been dealing with a quad injury for most of the season. On August 12th, he made the third start of his minor league rehab assignment in Double-A and over five innings, he allowed just two hits while striking out 10. When healthy, his strong control mixed with his nasty slider should allow him to continue to rack up strikeouts at a decent clip. Whether he begins to incorporate his changeup more into his arsenal remains to be seen, but if you’re competing, you need to make sure Hernandez isn’t sitting on your waiver wire.
Editor’s Note: Drafting is only half the battle! Get an edge on your competition with our MLB Season Tools - available in our EDGE+ Roto tier for $3.99/mo. (annually) or $9.99/mo. (monthly) - that are packed with rankings, projections, a trade evaluator, start/sit tools and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code SAVE10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
Deep Points League Options
(Players rostered in under 10% of ESPN leagues)
Carlos Hernandez SP/RP, Royals (6% rostered)
The moment I notice that a fairly young pitcher has a high-spin, high-velocity fastball, I get excited. I don’t care if it’s their only pitch, I don’t care if they can’t command it, anyone who’s armed with a fastball that can reach the high-90s while spinning at an above average rate has my attention. I’m not buying into their future outlook as a major leaguer or as a useful fantasy asset, but my interest is piqued. Yes, I’m looking at you, Carlos Hernandez.
The 24-year-old right-hander is armed with a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. He has a legit five pitch mix. So far in 2021, each of his pitches has a 9.4% usage rate, as he’s clearly trying to employ a more balanced attack against hitters. Each of his slider and curveball have whiff rates above 34%, meaning that Hernandez may very well possess multiple plus secondary pitches along with his plus hard pitches.
This all points to a pitcher who should be owned almost everywhere, so what’s ultimately holding him back? His hard pitch command can be spotty, so when he misses his location, he gets hit hard. Fortunately, he’s been routinely locating his curveball and slider down in the zone, which helps explain their high whiff rates. There are holes in his game, but his raw stuff is too good to ignore. Hernandez needs to be owned in more than 6% of ESPN leagues.
Connor Joe 1B/OF, Rockies (7% rostered)
Another late-blooming rookie, another feel good story. As a former 39th round draft pick in the 2014 MLB Draft, Joe has never had much hype surrounding his name. In the minor leagues, he had a rather lengthy career playing in the Pirates, Braves, Dodgers, and Rockies’ systems. Over 1,800 total at-bats, he earned a .273/.378/.432 slash line with a 13.2% walk rate, 17.3% strikeout rate, 51 home runs, and nine stolen bases. He ended up making his MLB debut in 2019 with the Giants and so far in 2021, the 28-years-old is slashing .277/.351/.471 with six home runs over 119 at-bats.
His playing time has been sporadic all season and for good reason, as there’s no reason for the Rockies to view him as an everyday player just yet. However, this seems to be slowly changing, as he’s been playing regularly over the last few games. There’s no easy road to the majors when you’re a 39th round draft pick, so seeing Joe make the most of his opportunities is fun to witness. If you need a cheap source of power over these final few weeks in deep points leagues, Joe is a fine target.
