As stolen bases continue to rise league wide, I will be here every Wednesday to help you track important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.
Last week, I highlighted the Mets and Rays weekend series as one to watch because the Mets are prolific at catching base stealers while the Rays are a very aggressive base stealing team. They attempted four stolen bases over three games and were caught three times.
Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard over the past seven days.
There are not many big numbers here this week.
Stealing a few bases has helped save Ke’Bryan Hayes’ relative fantasy value in spite of another step back at the plate.
Evan Carter has been hot since returning from injury and his aggressiveness on the bases is a good sign that his back feels healthy.
Now, here is the overall stolen base leaderboard on the season.
Oneil Cruz and José Caballero have been jockeying atop this board for a few weeks now.
Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to surge as he laughs in the face of potential regression.
Brice Turang has slowly crawled his way back onto this leaderboard and has a .377 on-base percentage this month. So, more stolen bases could be on the way.
Next, here are some players that we’d hoped would be more aggressive or efficient on the base paths.
It’s disappointing to see Kristian Campbell barely stealing bases this season after swiping 24 through 115 games in the minors last season.
Jackson Holliday is putting his head down refusing to stop attempting stolen bases despite his incredible inefficiency.
It’s remarkable that Maikel Garcia and Xavier Edwards have attempted nearly as many or more stolen bases as a handful of players on the full-season leaderboard yet have been caught as much as they have.
Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
It was a very, very slow week for stolen bases across the league. No team stood out as far as being a clear target to run on and there wasn’t enough volume to spot a new trend developing.
So, let’s review the three best teams to target when seeking stolen bases so far this season.
The Marlins have allowed 20 more stolen bases than any other club. Sandy Alcantara has been the primary culprit with 22 bases stolen while he’s been on the mound, which is more than any other pitcher. Also, none have been caught. He and Edward Cabrera are tied for worst in Baseball Savant’s Net Bases Prevented metric.
Their catching trio of Nick Fortes, Liam Hicks, and Agustín Ramírez haven’t helped matters either. Ramírez has been so bad behind the plate that he’s been relegated to a nearly full-time designated hitter, catching just one time in the Marlins’ last seven games.
The Astros are the second-best team to target in the run game. Oddly, Framber Valdez has struggled holding runners on this season. He’s allowed the third most stolen bases for any left-handed pitcher to this point.
Yet, their relievers are the ones making it the easiest on opposing base stealers. Five of the seven active members of their bullpen have graded out negatively in net bases prevented
To make matters worse, their catching tandem of Yanier Diaz and Victor Caratini are much more known for their offensive abilities.
Lastly, the Rockies are the third-best team to run against. Germán Márquez and Carson Palmquist are the most susceptible members of their rotation while Tyler Kinley has allowed the third-most stolen bases of any primary reliever.
Where are the Steals?
As I’ve mentioned a few times, not many bases were stolen over the past seven days. Actually, it was a shockingly low number.
The 99 total stolen bases across the league last week were the fewest in any single week this season. For reference, 142 were stolen last week. The week before that it was 123, which was the previous low. Then, you’d have to go back another three weeks before that number dipped below 130 again.
This feels like a strange anomaly, but check back next week to see if these numbers tick back up to what’s become normal levels of stolen bases.
