This article lays out my favorite ways to take advantage of positional correlations in DFS scoring through stacking. Factors that go into this strategy include the implied team total, the talent of the players, the opposing defense (especially any funneling tendencies), and the likely popularity of the players.
Safe Stacks
Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay game stack: Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, Tyler Lockett, Mike Evans
We can only hope that this game lives up to the hype. Vegas has a 2-point total on it, with the Seahawks being modest home favorites. There’s really nothing bad to say about Wilson this season; he leads the league in touchdown passes, has only one interception (and has thrown the fewest interceptable balls per game, 0.2) and has the highest passer rating (115.5) among starters. He’s expensive, but facing such a great matchup he’s way worth it. The value of the Seahawks depends to some extent on how well the Bucs play here. If Jameis Winston can get Mike Evans and Chris Godwin moving the ball down the field without turning it over, we’re in good shape, but if not, this quickly turns into a ball-control game plan with heavy doses of Carson. Therefore, to make this stack game-script-proof, I’m including Carson and Lockett with Wilson. I loved DK Metcalf at his price last week, and he came through, but touchdowns aren’t exactly reliable and his salary has now soared, so he doesn’t make this cut. A good game stack includes the opponent’s player most likely to turn it into a shootout. It’s tough to choose between Evans and Godwin as both have high projections this week and have produced similarly on the season. With as popular as this stack will be this week, use it more than once, swapping the Bucs receivers out for each other or try both (you will run out of money quickly though; consider using the Redskins D/ST to help in that case).
Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr.
Though the Raiders are the small home favorite in this potentially high scoring game, I prefer Stafford and company for cash games. Stafford is having a terrific season; his 16 passing touchdowns are tied for second in the league, just one behind Wilson’s 17. He gets the best main slate matchup, yet his salary is consistently fourth-highest. I’m not trying to figure out the Lions run game, assuming that the best chance they have to score will be through the air. Both Golladay and Jones have flashed in recent weeks, and I think it’s worth securing them both rather than trying to guess at whose turn it is this week. I considered including T.J. Hockenson here, but with other tight end options I like a whole lot more, can’t recommend him in the context of “safe”.
Contrarian Stacks
Green Bay Packers at LA Chargers game stack: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Mike Williams/Keenan Allen or Hunter Henry
There are a lot of ways to play this game. I think it will be good for DFS, but there are plenty of landmines to navigate, making it a riskier, tournament-appropriate target. For one thing, everyone’s on the injury report. I think Davante Adams and Aaron Jones will be good to go. I’m worried about Keenan Allen’s hamstring and curious if that is part of what’s been hindering his productivity the past few weeks. As of this writing, I’m leaning toward Mike Williams to anchor the Chargers side (also considering Hunter Henry). If Allen is active, he is basically the ultimate in risk/reward, with one of the highest fantasy point games for WRs this season under his belt (Week 3). I actually snuck Philip Rivers into the bargain article this week, given how cheap he is, noting that aside from two of the worst matchups in football, he hasn’t been that bad over the past four games. Still, Aaron Rodgers is the play in a game where his team is the road favorite after demonstrating his high floor and upside combination again this season. He has the third highest accuracy rating in the league (per FantasyData) and only Tom Brady has more red zone attempts than Rodgers. He’s tied with Stafford for second in the league with 16 touchdown passes, and is second in passing yards.
Oakland Raiders: Derek Carr, Tyrell Williams/Hunter Renfrow, Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller
While the total on this game is great and Oakland is actually favored, I think they are the riskier and therefore lower-owned group this weekend. Of course Waller will be popular, but that’s about as much Raiders exposure as most people are comfortable with. Jacobs has been dealing with a sore shoulder, which he played through last week in an uneventful fantasy game (9-10 fantasy points) albeit against a much stingier run defense than he’ll face in Week 9. Detroit is the third-most generous RB matchup, but they also come in sixth vs. QBs and 10th vs. WRs. It’s been a bit of a stretch to roster a Raiders WR, and I think Williams is still the safest bet but Renfrow, especially on DraftKings, isn’t as far behind as the salary difference would suggest. Carr is coming off a nice three-touchdown game, one of his best, but is still cheap enough, like all these guys, to be able to surround them with all the Dalvin Cook, Evans, Godwin, Christian McCaffrey, etc. types you want.
Mini Stacks
Royce Freeman/Phillip Lindsay and Denver D/ST:
Lots of people are thinking the Browns get right this weekend in Denver, but I am not one of them. The Denver defense ranks fifth in sacks, while Baker Mayfield ranks fifth in sacks taken, and also gives up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs and fewest to WRs. They allow just over 300 total yards per game and under 200 yards per game passing. Opponent rushers don’t fare much better. While I’m not sure what to expect from Brandon Allen, I do think the fact that he’s making his first start is a great indicator for a run-heavy game plan. You have to keep an eye on Lindsay’s wrist; if he is out, I am 100 percent in on Freeman. Even if both guys are active, Freeman has touchdowns in back to back games, is getting almost as much work as the more efficient Lindsay, and could be a nice option in the short passing game. [[ad:athena]]
Allen Robinson and Jordan Howard:
It’s definitely weird to pair these two as a mini-stack, but Philadelphia has been shredded by big opposing WR1s this season, and Howard is probably the Eagles’ best chance to penetrate a stout Bears Defense. Chicago has been tough overall, but that is mostly due to their above average pass defense; they’re actually allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs. My guess is that Miles Sanders will play this week, but Howard is getting a lot of valuable touches and is the best bet to score. Taking just one optimal skill player from each side of this game limits your exposure to the risk of a low-scoring game, as well as avoiding what could be poor QB play on both sides.
