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Divisional Round DFS lineup creation centers on which superstar you’re willing to build around, which high-volume mega-producer is going to outproduce the other high-volume mega-producers on this tiny slate of games.
That choice should largely hinge on which elite options are going to garner the most rostership in DFS tournaments this weekend. Fading the right high-end plays will require a fully-functioning galaxy brain in the Divisional Round.
Before we get into all that, let’s do ranks.
Divisional Round Ranks
Quarterback
1. Josh Allen
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Patrick Mahomes
4. Joe Burrow
5. Tom Brady
6. Matthew Stafford
7. Ryan Tannehill
8. Jimmy Garoppolo
Running Back
1. Derrick Henry (if active)
2. Elijah Mitchell
3. Cam Akers
4. Devin Singletary
5. Joe Mixon
6. Leonard Fournette (if active)
7. Aaron Jones
8. Jerick McKinnon
9. AJ Dillon
10. Gio Bernard
11. Ke’Shawn Vaughn
12. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
13. D’Onta Foreman
Wide Receiver
1. Davante Adams
2. Deebo Samuel
3. Cooper Kupp
4. Ja’Marr Chase
5. Mike Evans
6. Stefon Diggs
7. Tyreek Hill
8. Odell Beckham, Jr.
9. A.J. Brown
10. Tee Higgins
11. Julio Jones
12. Brandon Aiyuk
13. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (if active)
14. Tyler Johnson
15. Byron Pringle
16. Randall Cobb
17. Van Jefferson
18. Allen Lazard
19. Tyler Boyd
20. Gabriel Davis
21. Mecole Hardman
22. Emmanuel Sanders
23. Isaiah McKenzie
24. Breshad Perriman
25. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Tight End
1. Travis Kelce
2. Rob Gronkowski
3. Dawson Knox
4. George Kittle
5. Tyler Higbee
6. C.J. Uzomah
7. Cameron Brate
8. Josiah Deguara
9. Anthony Firkser
10. Marcedes Lewis
Defense
1. Bucs
2. Titans
3. Packers
4. Chiefs
5. 49ers
6. Bills
7. Rams
8. Bengals
Divisional Round Game Breakdowns
Tennessee Titans (-3.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Titans implied total: 25.25
Bengals implied total: 21.75
This game sets up nicely -- some would say spectacularly -- for how the Titans want to do things on offense. Tennessee’s offense, which hardly changed at all in Derrick Henry’s absence, has the league’s lowest pass rate over expectation. When leading this season, the Titans had a pass rate of just 45 percent, the seventh-lowest in the NFL.
The Bengals, meanwhile, can be had on the ground. Over the regular season’s final four weeks, Cincy allowed the 12th highest expected points added (EPA) per rushing attempt; no team gave up a higher rushing success rate than the Bengals in that stretch. Pro Football Focus’ tenth lowest graded rush defense, the Bengals will be without DT Larry Ogunjobi (foot) for the rest of the postseason. They could also be without DE Trey Hendrickson, who’s in the NFL’s concussion protocol following a Wild Card brain injury. It’s less than fantastic news for the league’s eighth most extreme run funnel defense over the regular season’s final month.
Every conceivable sign points to another run-heavy approach for Tennessee. If Henry can make his triumphant return from a foot injury -- head coach Mike Vrabel won’t commit one way or the other -- he probably won’t need a massive workload to shred a vulnerable Bengals run defense. The unlikely prospect that Henry will see his usual dominant share of the team’s carries and D’Onta Foreman’s impressive late-season showing makes the latter a sneaky option if one believes the Titans will have game script on their side here. The issue, of course, is that DFS sites have hedged on Foreman’s pricing in case Henry can’t suit up. And if Henry is out, expect Foreman to be the highest rostered running back on the slate.
The Titans operating their preferred offense would naturally leave exceedingly little volume for A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, and the rest of the team’s pass catchers. The same goes for Ryan Tannehill, who averaged 210.6 passing yards and 0.72 passing scores on 27.9 attempts in Tennessee wins this season. Differentiation in this game would come in the form of a Tannehill stack with at least one of his two main wideouts. A game script in which the Titans are forced out of their comfort zone by a high-flying Bengals passing attack would certainly qualify as weird, and we’re trying to get weird here.
Julio Jones, who may very well be washed beyond comprehension, most recently saw nine targets in the Titans’ Week 18 win over Houston. Julio -- whose hamstrings are reportedly intact for now -- rode a 30 percent target share and a 48 percent air yards share to a team-leading 15 expected receiving fantasy points against the Texans. His DraftKings price point ($4,700) is absurdly low. I’m not saying, I’m just saying.
Underdog’s Hayden Winks helped to dispel the notion -- held by yours truly as recently as last week -- that the Bengals could revert to the balanced offensive approach they used in the season’s first two and a half months. No more, per the numbers. Winks points out that the Bengals’ three highest neutral pass rates have come in the past three weeks. Zac Taylor, for all his glaring deficiencies, clearly understands that if his team is going to make a Super Bowl run, it’s going to come with a relentless aerial assault led by Joe Burrow and target magnet Ja’Marr Chase, not some “respectable” run-establishing unit that force feeds Joe Mixon.
With a 0.382 expected points added per dropback over their past four games -- which trails only Kansas City -- Burrow and company are running roughshod over any and all secondaries, giving them very little reason to stop attacking downfield. The Titans are admittedly a tough defense to figure out because they happen to be good against the run and the pass. Tennessee opponents, however, have dramatically shifted toward the pass in recent games; only the Ravens were a more extreme pass funnel defense than the Titans from Week 15 to Week 18.
Burrow and Chase -- and Tee Higgins, maybe -- should have their chance to connect on long balls in the Divisional Round. The Titans allowed the seventh-most receptions of more than 40 yards this season and the fifth-most completions of at least 20 yards. This Tennessee secondary, allowing 10.62 yards per completion -- eighth-highest in the NFL -- is susceptible to the deep shot.
C.J. Uzomah will probably be overplayed in DFS tournaments a week after his rock solid 64-yard, one-score performance against Vegas. His DFS price point is low enough so he won’t be an abject disaster, but the matchup here is rough. Tight ends had the league’s third-lowest target share (18.4 percent) against the Titans in the regular season. Uzomah’s route participation (75 percent since Week 12) makes him viable as a desperation punt play in what should be a massively pass-heavy game plan for the Bengals.
Game Stack Ideas
Burrow, Chase, Henry or Foreman (depending on Henry’s availability)
Burrow, Chase, Higgins, Henry or Foreman
Burrow, Chase, Henry, Jones
Tannehill, Brown or Jones, Chase or Higgins
Skinny Stack Ideas
Henry or Foreman, Chase or Higgins
One of Brown or Jones and Chase
Chase, Mixon, Henry
Chase, Mixon, Jones or Brown
Kansas City Chiefs (1.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
Chiefs implied total: 28
Bills implied total: 26.5
Galaxy brain turned on, this is the game on which to hedge for stacking purposes as DFS players will flock to the Bills-KC matchup in droves. If we want to be right alone or wrong alone in large-field DFS tournaments (we do) then going heavy on games with lower totals will accomplish just that.
The Chiefs offense is operating at a hyper-efficient level. They were third in the league in expected points added per play and fourth in offensive success rate over the season’s final four weeks. Last week they dismantled the Steelers as rudely as one might expect. Patrick Mahomes’ composite EPA per drop back and completion rate over expectation trails only Joe Burrow over the past three weeks. It seems Andy Reid has figured out the once-unbeatable cover-2 shell, thank every deity.
Kansas City, sporting the NFL’s highest pass rate over expectation and the third-highest neutral pass rate -- only Buffalo and Tampa are higher -- have little reason to abandon their pass-heavy ways in the Divisional Round. KC passed on 71 percent of their plays in Week 5 against Buffalo, a 34-20 loss in which the Bills entered the fourth quarter up by 18 points. All the major Chiefs fantasy options had terribly inefficient outings. Travis Kelce was targeted on a fairly low 20 percent of his pass routes against Buffalo (he’s been targeted on 24 percent of his routes on the year) while Tyreek Hill had a 25 percent target per route run (TPRR) share and Mecole Hardman weirdly led the team in TPRR and recorded nine catches for 76 yards. The Bills are a nightmare tight end matchup: Only the Patriots allowed fewer tight end catches this year and a mere three defenses gave up a lower tight end target share. But Buffalo plays as much cover-2 shell as any defense in the NFL, meaning Hill could be held in check, leaving Kelce to win his matchups throughout.
Hardman’s Week 5 involvement -- he ran a route on 71 percent of Mahomes’ drop backs -- could portend involvement from a tertiary KC pass catcher like Byron Pringle. It was Pringle, after all, who had the team’s highest route running rate outside Hill and Kelce during the season’s last four weeks. With Josh Gordon inactive for KC’s Wild Card game, Pringle and Demarcus Robinson each ran a route on 65.3 percent of Mahomes’ dropbacks. Both receivers are cheap ways to attack a potentially high-scoring game if your lineup is primarily composed of stacks from another Divisional Round game.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (shoulder) practiced Wednesday. He’s on track to play against Buffalo, as he was last week before being declared out Friday evening. This, for some inexplicable reason, casts major doubt on Jerick McKinnon’s RB1 role in the Kansas City offense a week after he torched the Steelers for 142 yards on 18 touches. McKinnon’s pass-catching prowess should make him the heavy favorite to absorb most (or all) of the targets in the KC backfield -- a potentially outsized factor in a Chiefs offense with the league’s highest pass rate over expectation.
There is the narrowest path to rushing volume for Kansas City in this one. Buffalo was the NFL’s most extreme run funnel defense in the regular season. Bills opponents had a 57.2 percent pass rate this season, 12th-lowest in the NFL. A fast start of the Chiefs could conceivably put them in position to establish it against Buffalo and keep the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands. We’ll label this as “technically possible.”
Allen, coming off what can be accurately described as a flawless performance against New England, has averaged 8.83 rushing attempts per game over his past six. That coincides with the team’s shift to a more balanced attack that has seen their first down pass rate remain high but their second and third-down pass rate fall. Against Kansas City in Week 5, Allen took off 11 times for 59 yards and a touchdown. Allen’s rushing potential -- against a Chiefs defense that has struggled to contain mobile QBs over the past two years -- makes him this week’s top quarterback option. That he’s priced just $300 more than Mahomes and $500 ahead of Aaron Rodgers means there’s no chance his rostership is reasonable in the Divisional Round, the way it was in the Wild Card round. Adjust accordingly.
Devin Singletary’s Divisional Round prospects aren’t nearly as appealing as they were in the Wild Card round when the Bills had a much easier path to the sort of positive game script that would generate ample rushing attempts for the Buffalo workhorse. For all the effort the Bills have made to balance their offense in the past couple of months, they haven’t shoehorned the strategy into game plans against pass-funnel defenses. And that’s what Kansas City is -- a defense that profiled as the league’s eighth-most extreme pass funnel on the year and the third-most extreme in the season’s final month. If Singletary’s 80.6 percent route participation in the Wild Card round holds up -- that’s 28 percent higher than his season-long rate -- he might not require double-digit carries to get there in PPR formats. He saw all four Bills running back targets against the Pats.
Buffalo scaling back Cole Beasley’s usage has generated more involvement for Dawson Knox and Isaiah McKenzie, who’s like Beasley if Beasley were good. Knox last week ran a route on a hefty 93.3 percent of Allen’s dropbacks -- a 20 percent jump over his season-long route rate. He caught all five of his targets for 89 yards and two touchdowns, as you may recall. Knox, who popped for 117 yards and a score against KC in Week 5 on a mere four targets, is a reasonably cost-effective way to benefit from a back-and-forth affair. Tight ends saw a decent 20.7 percent target share against the Chiefs this year.
McKenzie, meanwhile, ran a route on 41.3 percent of Allen’s dropbacks last week, catching all three of his targets. His explosiveness and involvement as a gadget player offers some large-field appeal this week. Beasley is unplayable after running a route on 27.5 percent of the team’s dropbacks against New England.
Game Stack Ideas
Mahomes, Kelce, Knox, Singletary
Mahomes, Kelce, Stefon Diggs
Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, Knox, Emmanuel Sanders or Gabriel Davis
Allen, Davis or Sanders, Knox, Kelce or Hill
Allen, Diggs, Singletary, Kelce
Skinny Stack Ideas
Kelce, Singletary, Knox
Kelce, Diggs, Sanders or Davis
Kelce or Hill, McKenzie, Singletary
Green Bay Packers (-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Packers implied total: 26.75
49ers implied total: 20.75
The Packers, much like the Cowboys in the Wild Card round, are vulnerable to Kyle Shanahan’s burning passion to establish the run. Only the horrific Detroit run defense allowed a higher expected points added per rush than Green Bay over the season’s last four weeks, and the Browns and Bengals were the only defenses to give up a higher rushing success rate. The Browns, in their narrow Christmas Day loss to the Packers, rushed for 184 yards on 21 carries (8.76 yards per carry).
Shanny will be intrigued by these trends.
Jimmy Garoppolo dealing with a thumb injury and a sprain in his throwing shoulder could further push Shanahan to go all-in with a run-heavy approach against a beatable Packers front seven. That means, of course, lots of Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel, who combined for 37 rushes (27 for Mitchell, 10 for Samuel) in last week’s Wild Card win. They could see even more rushing opportunity in the Divisional Round in a Niners offense with a 40 percent pass rate while leading this year. Green Bay opponents had the league’s fifth-highest pass rate during the regular season. Barring a catastrophic start for San Francisco, the run will be established.
One must make a determination on the likelihood of positive, run-heavy game script for the Niners before one decides on playing or fading George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. Kittle, who ran a route on 88.4 percent of Jimmy G’s drop back last week, saw a meager two targets. There’s vanishingly little logic in playing Kittle if you’re also playing Mitchell. The game script-proof Deebo is another story. It’s crystal clear the 49ers will ride Deebo as their offensive centerpiece for as long as it’ll work. The level of FOMO I experience when making a Divisional Round DFS lineup without Samuel is medically dangerous.
The 49ers rush defense -- as I mentioned in this space last week -- has been stellar, bordering on mindblowing. Since Week 15, they’ve allowed the league’s lowest expected points added per rush (including last week’s snuffing out of the Dallas rushing offense) and the fifth-lowest success rate. It’s tough to see how Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have much of a Divisional Round ceiling unless the Packers get out to a big first-half lead and can bleed to clock dry in the second half. Green Bay -- with the NFL’s fourth-highest pass rate over expectation -- has no reason to hammer their running backs into a brick wall. Let’s assume rational coaching here.
That likely leaves Aaron Rodgers and his pass catchers to do the heavy lifting against a Niners defense giving up the seventh-highest adjusted EPA per drop back, according to NBC Sports Edge’s Pat Kerrane. Teams have consistently attacked the 49ers via the pass since the start of December; only the Ravens, Titans, Jets, and Chiefs were more extreme pass funnel defenses from Week 15 to Week 18. Ample opportunity for Rodgers, Davante Adams, and the team’s other pass catchers shouldn’t hinge on game script, as Green Bay’s pass rate while leading this season was 56 percent, the fourth-highest in the NFL. Like most good teams, they never really stop passing.
Adams has threatened to end the Niners franchise in recent meetings with the red and gold. The Packers alpha wideout has 48 catches for 618 yards and five touchdowns in five career games against San Francisco. The 49ers have had no answer for Adams (no one does) and there’s not much reason to think Rodgers won’t target his favorite receiver with the stakes bowel-shakingly high. Adams most recently enjoyed a nice little 54.5 percent target share in his 12-catch, 132-yard, one-score performance against the 49ers in September. Stacking Adams with Deebo will decimate your DFS salary but the upside is outrageous.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, after missing Wednesday’s practice, is very much in doubt for the Divisional Round. A lot will hinge on his availability. Both Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb become mouth-waterlingly cheap secondary stacking options alongside Rodgers if MVS can’t go. Cobb, in Week 12 before he suffered a core muscle injury, was targeted on five of his 13 routes against the Rams, catching four balls for 95 yards and a score. He’s in play if MVS is sidelined.
Game Stack Ideas
Rodgers, Adams, Samuel or Mitchell
Rodgers, Adams, Samuel and Mitchell
Rodgers, Adams, Cobb, Samuel and Kittle
Skinny Stack Ideas
Adams, Samuel or Mitchell
Adams, Samuel and Kittle
Mitchell, Adams, Cobb or Lazard (if MVS is out)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) vs. LA Rams
Bucs implied total: 25.5
Rams implied total: 22.5
My esteemed NBC Sports Edge colleague Pat Kerrane was right. In Week 17, after the Rams had rolled with a shockingly run-heavy offense against the extreme pass-funnel Ravens defense, Kerrane positited Sean McVay was spooked by Matthew Stafford’s spine-crushing mistakes in the season’s final stretch.
The Rams have indeed trashed their previous pass-heavy approach for a running game that has indeed been established. Their 52 percent pass rate since Week 15 is the seventh-lowest in the NFL. That’s in contrast to their 59 percent pass rate in the season’s first 11 weeks. The stunningly productive return of Cam Akers from a preseason Achilles injury has only emboldened McVay to lean all the way into the run-first attack. You may recall the Rams posting a Wild Card pass rate of 33 percent in their humiliation of the Cardinals.
Akers -- who saw 60 percent of the Rams’ rushes last week -- will draw massive rostership this week. I take no pleasure in reporting this. His low DFS price point and his takeover of the LA backfield make him irresistible. Your decision on what to do with Akers on this short slate could be your undoing. I’m tilting. The one halfway decent argument against Akers as a must-play option is that Bucs opponents have their league’s highest pass rate. In LA’s fairly easy Week 3 win over Tampa, the Rams passed on 63 percent of their plays, with Sony Michel seeing 20 inefficient carries -- mostly in the second half. The question: How committed is Sean McVay to his philosophical offensive shift?
The Rams’ abandonment of their pass-first offense has produced three straight games in which Cooper Kupp has seen seven targets. That pales in comparison to his 11.87 targets per game in the season’s first 16 weeks. The concern doesn’t stop there: Kupp’s 20 percent targets per route run rate over the past three weeks is miles below his 34 percent TPRR rate on the year. Of course, he could easily see a dozen targets from Stafford if the Rams fall behind and have to abandon the dream of a balanced offense.
Tom Brady in the Bucs’ early-season loss to LA targeted his tight ends at a good clip. In a game that saw Rob Gronkowski leave with an injury, Tampa tight ends saw 13 targets, a 23.7 percent target share. Facing a Rams defense allowing a 20.9 percent tight end target share, Gronk could finally be in line for a ceiling game if the Bucs are forced to drop back at a heavy clip. Tampa had a 67 percent neutral pass rate against LA in Week 3. They took to the air before things got out of hand in the second half.
The fairly heavy targeting of Tampa’s tight ends can be explained by a quick-hitting approach against an aggressive LA defense that blitzed quite a bit (and Brady completed 75 percent of his throws). The Rams -- with the league’s tenth highest blitz rate (26.3 percent) -- sent extra pass rushers on more than 30 percent of the Bucs’ offensive snaps in Week 3. Brady averaged a minuscule 2.3 air yards per attempt against those LA blitzed. It would make all too much sense for the Rams to blitz Brady, who has been less stellar against the blitz this season, early and often in the Divisional Round. A game full of short passes from Brady could benefit slot WR Tyler Johnson, who posted an average depth of target last week of seven. Johnson was second among Tampa wideouts in pass routes against the Eagles. Such an approach would also be excellent for whoever is running routes out of the Tampa backfield.
Leonard Fournette’s availability will shake up DFS options for the Divisional Round. Another no-go for Lombardi Lenny -- whose status is up in the air as of this writing -- would turn Giovani Bernard into a high-floor PPR play. Bernard led the Tampa backfield in pass routes, targets, and receptions last week against the Eagles, and the only other time this year Bernard was fantasy relevant happened to be in Week 3 against these Rams when the wiley veteran reeled in nine of ten targets and scored a touchdown. That Ke’Shawn Vaughn would probably remain the Bucs’ preferred early-down back wouldn’t matter all that much if the Bucs can’t establish against a pretty stingy Rams rush defense.
Game Stack Ideas
Brady, Gronk or Evans, Kupp
Brady, Evans and Gronk, Kupp
Brady, Bernard (if Fournette is out), Gronk or Evans, Kupp
Brady, Evans and Gronk, Akers
Skinny Stack Ideas
Gronk or Evans and Kupp
Akers and Gronk and Evans
Akers and Gronk or Evans
Bernard, Evans or Gronk, Akers
