For the folks wondering if they’re in the right year, the answer is yes. The year is 2026, and we are once again being treated to another Patriots vs. Seahawks Super Bowl. The names have quite literally all changed, but the game remains the same, and a Lombardi Trophy is still on the line. The Patriots look to add an NFL record seventh Super Bowl title to their trophy case, while the Seahawks hope this meeting ends a little differently than the last time these two teams faced off in the big game.
Members of our Rotoworld crew are currently on the ground in San Francisco in preparation for Sunday’s game, but that didn’t stop them from taking a few minutes to tell us how each team could win and who they ultimately see winning it all when the final whistle blows.
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The Patriots win on Sunday if...
Patrick Daugherty: Drake Maye’s performance normalizes along with the weather as the Pats’ lock-down run defense renders the Seahawks’ suddenly undermanned backfield a liability. With the Seahawks unable to “establish it,” regular season turnover leader Sam Darnold reverts to type and makes more critical mistakes than timely throws.
Denny Carter: The Pats can win if they rattle Sam Darnold with disguised coverages and blitzes. While he has as much arm talent as (almost) any QB in the league, Darnold’s weak spot has always been identifying defensive looks when they are disguised before the snap. New England excels in this area and could be a major problem for Darnold in his first Super Bowl appearance. Limiting Seattle’s offense will hinge on this dynamic, I think.
Kyle Dvorchak: A great Drake Maye game will even the odds, but New England needs another player to step up to put them over the top. If that happens, my money is on one of TreVeyon Henderson or Stefon Diggs. Henderson has yet to rush for 30 yards in a playoff game. Diggs has been held under 20 yards twice. They haven’t done much of anything in the postseason. On the other hand, Diggs finished the regular season with the ninth-most catches for 20-plus yards. Henderson trailed only Jahmyr Gibbs in carries of 40-plus yards. One of these two players needs to be a hero for the Pats to win.
Rivers McCown: There are two things I think the Patriots need to happen to win this game. They have to be able to make Seattle’s offense one-dimensional, as the Rams did in the NFC Championship by holding Seattle running backs to 22 carries for 66 yards. The Patriots have had a really good run defense with the trio of Robert Spillane, Milton Williams, and Khyiris Tonga all healthy, and have stamped out the Broncos, Texans, and Chargers run games in the playoffs. And the trickier part is that Drake Maye has to hit some of his high-variance downfield shots. Devon Witherspoon is one of the best corners in the league, but I think Josh Jobe and Riq Woolen have been gettable with the right combination of playcall and scheme. The spotlight to me is firmly on Kayshon Boutte -- I don’t know if the Pats can win without him or Mack Hollins having a couple of big downfield plays.
Zachary Krueger: If Drake Maye can get back to MVP form despite facing yet another elite defense in the postseason. Maye’s struggles throughout the postseason can be partially attributed to poor weather conditions, but he still shoulders plenty of blame. Maye finished third in the league in carries (105) among QBs this season and fourth in rushing yards (450), and has, at times, been at his best in the playoffs when he takes off and runs. He has two runs of 20-plus yards this postseason, and rushed eight times for 43 yards in the second-half against the Broncos to help keep the chains moving. Seattle’s defense will give the Patriots fits, but if Maye stays sharp and uses his entire skill set under pressure, that should be enough to keep the offense on schedule and give them a chance.
The Seahawks win on Sunday if...
Daugherty: A shoulder-compromised Drake Maye flunks another tough defensive assignment while the Seahawks keep the chains moving on the ground. Playing with a lead and not forced into third-and-longs, Sam Darnold completes his comeback with a clean, efficient performance.
Carter: The Seahawks will win this game if they overwhelm the Patriots’ passing attack and keep a dinged-up Drake Maye in the pocket. Maye is fresh off an AFC title game in which he logged ten rushes for 65 yards against a Broncos defense that plays one of the NFL’s highest rates of man coverage, which often leads to more quarterback rushing attempts. The Seahawks in the regular season deployed man coverage on just 18 percent of their defensive snaps, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. They should be able to prevent Maye from making game-saving plays on the ground, as he did against Denver. QBs facing the Hawks this season have averaged just 3.5 rushes per game; only the Vikings, Rams, and Packers allowed fewer.
Dvorchak: Sam Darnold gets to work from a clean pocket. Darnold led the NFL in interceptions when pressured this year. Conversely, he led the league in yards per attempt from a clean pocket. The Patriots have the horses on defense to make this a grim reality for Darnold. They ranked sixth in the league in pressure rate this year.
McCown: They continue to limit Sam Darnold‘s turnovers. The Seahawks did not turn the ball over against the Rams or 49ers in the playoffs. But Darnold’s 14 regular-season interceptions were the third-most in the NFL, behind only Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa, and he tied for the NFL lead with 11 fumbles. Darnold can be schemed into turnovers through careful study -- Rams DC Chris Shula did a great job of this in both of their regular-season meetings -- and I suspect the Patriots will have some designer stuff in the game plan with an extra week to study him. I don’t know if the Patriots (or anybody) can stop Jaxon Smith-Njigba from getting his, which leads me to believe that Seattle is going to move the ball through the air. But the more the Seahawks have to put the ball in Darnold’s hands -- and I say this knowing that my score prediction below is me saying I believe Sam Darnold is good enough to win Super Bowl MVP -- the better chance the Patriots have of making something chaotic happen.
Krueger: If Sam Darnold can continue to limit bad plays while Seattle’s defense forces bad ones from the Patriots. Darnold threw third-most interceptions (14) of any QB in the league this season, and his 8.7 percent negative play rate (sacks+fumbles lost+interceptions ÷ total plays) was 12th-highest among all QBs (min. 300 plays. Interestingly, Drake Maye‘s 9.0 percent negative play rate ranked 11th-highest. Darnold’s negative play rate of 8.2 percent in the postseason is due solely to sacks, as he has yet to turn the ball over in the playoffs. While still not ideal, if he can continue to keep the ball in the Seahawks’ possession and turn in some explosive plays downfield with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots having enough to counter a mistake-free Seattle offense.
How do you see things playing out on Sunday?
Daugherty: The Patriots answer the bell, going toe-to-toe with the widely-favored Seahawks. However, they finally meet an opponent even better suited to a rock fight than themselves, coming up short in the “big play” department as Sam Darnold finds Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba in too many critical situations. New England covers, but Seattle hoists the Lombardi. 23-20.
Carter: Though a healthy New England defense could make things tough for Sam Darnold and the Seattle offense, I think the Seahawks have the offensive personnel to neutralize the Patriots. This starts with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who will be moved around the formation to avoid Christian Gonzalez. I like Seattle’s chances of putting up points early, and I struggle to see how a banged-up Drake Maye is going to move the ball against a defense allowing the league’s lowest overall EPA per play, the fourth-lowest drop-back EPA, and the lowest rushing EPA. I’ll take the Seahawks in a decisive 31-13 win.
Dvorchak: Darnold isn’t seeing ghosts these days. He is, however, still vulnerable to teams with elite pass-rush units. The Pats are a team that can get home against the quarterback and shut down the run game, a setup that could be particularly precarious for Darnold. On the other hand, Drake Maye’s legs could work as the ultimate counter to a Seattle defense that has played stellar football this year in most facets this year, with one of their lone weaknesses being running quarterbacks. I see a nailbiter game decided by a single Darnold mistake or one too many hero plays from Maye for Seattle to handle. Patriots win this one 31-24.
McCown: I think the Seahawks defense feasts, as it has all season. I think it’s easy to dismiss New England’s postseason offensive struggles with a simple “better opponents” comment, and to note that the Broncos game occurred in a blizzard. But the Texans were the only team with any claim to a better defense than Seattle this year, and they allowed 21 points to these Patriots (not counting a pick-six) despite a snowstorm of C.J. Stroud turnovers. There was a half of football before Stalingrad took hold in the AFC Championship game, and the Patriots scored seven points during that time, mostly because the defense forced a red zone turnover. They managed just 16 points against the Chargers’ new Ravens head coach, Jesse Minter’s defense. If the Patriots can control the ground game, I could see this being a close one, but I think we all want to believe that the Super Bowl will be close and fun, and it isn’t always that easy. Seahawks 27, Patriots 13.
Krueger: As somebody who loved Drake Maye coming out of college, his making the Super Bowl in just his second season feels somewhat validating. Should he hoist the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday, it would feel all the more validating, but I’m worried the Patriots’ run of luck against elite defenses might run out in this one. While Darnold reverting to a pumpkin could certainly throw a wrench into things, the Seahawks have enough on defense to make up for one or two gaffes. Since Week 14 and including the postseason, the Seahawks have allowed opponents to score just nine offensive touchdowns. The Rams are responsible for seven of those scores. The Patriots are already facing an uphill battle, and to make matters worse, Maye is dealing with a shoulder injury that he will obviously play through, but it’s hard to know how much it could affect him. I’ll take the Seahawks in a not-so-close game, 27-13.
