While the Patriots were busy running circles around the Jets in Week 16, a tweet popped up in my timeline. It came from Boston Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy, who said:
Tomato Can season of 2016 marches on. Yet another game in which we learn nothing about the Patriots.
— Dan Shaughnessy (@Dan_Shaughnessy) December 24, 2016
For those unfamiliar with the lingo, Shaughnessy enjoys referring to easy opponents as “tomato cans.” Punching bags and cakewalks would be acceptable synonyms. And to be fair, the Patriots have had plenty of those recently. Look at who they’ve played during their six-game winning streak: the 49ers, Jets (twice), Rams, Ravens and Broncos. None of those teams will be playing past Week 17.
Winning six in a row against anyone is tough but New England’s soft slate does raise some questions. Are the Patriots really as good as their 13-2 record suggests or is that number inflated by one of the league’s easiest schedules?
But I have a counterargument to that: does it matter? Look at their competition in the AFC. Raiders quarterback Derek Carr just broke his leg. Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill is out with a knee injury. The Texans recently benched Brock Osweiler for Tom Savage, who made his first career start in Week 16. The Patriots mopped the floor with Pittsburgh earlier this year while Kansas City lost to New England in Foxboro last January. The Patriots still have to show up, but all the injuries and uncertainty surrounding their opponents make them a great bet to run the table in the AFC. Plus, they have Tom Brady.
1. New England Patriots
Record: 13-2
Last Week: 1
Here is a list of the current starting quarterbacks for the six AFC playoff teams: Tom Brady, Matt McGloin, Matt Moore, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Savage and Alex Smith. Think that gives New England a slight advantage? Well you’re not alone. The Patriots are now 2-1 favorites to win Super Bowl XLI. A win against Miami in Week 17 will give New England its first 14-win season since 2010. That was the last time Tom Brady won MVP, an honor he should receive again in 2016.
Fantasy Tidbit: LeGarrette Blount’s 17 rushing touchdowns are the most of any player since 2011.
2. Dallas Cowboys
Record: 13-2
Last Week: 2
Raise your hand if you thought Dez Bryant would finish the year with more touchdown passes than Tony Romo. Okay now put your hand down, you liar. Bryant has been remarkably consistent, collecting at least 70 yards in six of his last seven games with six receiving touchdowns during that span. The Cowboys matched a franchise record with their 13th win of the season on Monday night. They’ll look to better that mark against the Eagles in Week 17.
Fantasy Tidbit: David Irving has three sacks and a forced fumble over his last two games.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 11-4
Last Week: 5
The Chiefs spent Christmas night pummeling the Broncos while clinching their second straight playoff berth. Tyreek Hill filled his weekly quota by scoring another long touchdown, giving him 11 for the season. That leads the team. Of course, the hard work isn’t over yet. The Chiefs can still clinch the No. 2 seed with a win and a Raiders loss in Week 17. But if the Chiefs lose and the Dolphins win, they’ll drop all the way to sixth.
Fantasy Tidbit: Kansas City’s tight ends combined for 17 catches, 197 yards and two touchdowns in Week 16.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 10-5
Last Week: 7
Antonio Brown has now reached the century mark in catches in four straight seasons. His four-yard touchdown in the closing seconds of Week 16 was a double-whammy. It knocked Baltimore out of the playoffs while handing Pittsburgh its second division title in the last three years. With the No. 3 seed locked up and no room to move up or down, expect the Steelers to rest their starters in Week 17.
Fantasy Tidbit: After going his first five games without a touchdown, Le’Veon Bell has now scored nine times over his last seven outings.
5. Atlanta Falcons
Record: 10-5
Last Week: 6
The Falcons have won their last three games by a combined 73 points. Sure those teams had a combined .267 winning percentage, but that’s still pretty remarkable. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have both scored double-digit touchdowns while Matt Ryan boasts the league’s highest quarterback rating at 115.5. After a four-year hiatus, the Falcons are finally headed back to the postseason.
Fantasy Tidbit: Julio Jones leads the league with 101 receiving yards per game this year.
6. Oakland Raiders
Record: 12-3
Last Week: 3
The Raiders can still earn home-field advantage—they’ll need a win coupled by a New England loss in Week 17—but does it even matter at this point? Losing Derek Carr for the rest of the year (barring a miraculous recovery) is a tough pill to swallow. Matt McGloin is one of the league’s better backups, but it’s hard to envision him beating the Patriots in January.
Fantasy Tidbit: Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and Latavius Murray didn’t score any of the Raiders’ five touchdowns in Week 16.
7. Seattle Seahawks
Record: 9-5-1
Last Week: 4
The Seahawks are limping into the playoffs. They’ve lost three of their last five including a nail-biter Saturday against the Cardinals. Russell Wilson threw for a season-high 350 yards in that game but the running game stalled after losing Thomas Rawls to yet another injury. Christine Michael leads the team in rushing yards this season. Seattle cut him over a month ago.
Fantasy Tidbit: Doug Baldwin set career-highs with 13 catches and 171 yards in Week 16.
8. Green Bay Packers
Record: 9-6
Last Week: 10
Aaron Rodgers has thrown 17 touchdowns with no interceptions over his last six games. Six have gone to Jordy Nelson, who leads the NFL with 14 receiving touchdowns. Nelson and Davante Adams are the only teammates with double-digit receiving touchdowns this season. The Packers will be playing for an NFC North title next week against the Lions. It would be their fifth division crown in the last six years.
Fantasy Tidbit: Aaron Rodgers has the fourth-most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback this year with four.
9. New York Giants
Record: 10-5
Last Week: 8
The Giants were on the field for 89 offensive snaps in Week 16. Somehow, they managed just 19 points while falling to an Eagles team that hadn’t won in over a month. At least the Giants are finally giving Paul Perkins more work. He’s led the team in carries three of the last four weeks while averaging a respectable 4.31 yards per rushing attempt.
Fantasy Tidbit: Odell Beckham’s 20 targets in Week 16 were a season-high in the NFL.
10. Miami Dolphins
Record: 10-5
Last Week: 13
There are only three certainties in life: death, taxes and Jay Ajayi rushing for 200 yards against Buffalo. Ajayi’s 1,213 rushing yards are the most by a Dolphin since 2003. Second-year DeVante Parker came through when the Fins needed him most, delivering 85 yards and a touchdown in last week’s playoff-clinching win over the Bills. That’s more yards than Parker had in his previous three games combined.
Fantasy Tidbit: Matt Moore has posted a 113.6 quarterback rating in two starts while filling in for Ryan Tannehill.
11. Detroit Lions
Record: 9-6
Last Week: 9
The Lions entered Week 16 with a league-worst five rushing touchdowns but broke out for three of them against the Cowboys on Monday night. Two were scored by Zach Zenner, who rushed for a career-high 67 yards on 12 carries. Detroit can clinch the division with a win over Green Bay on Sunday night. But if the Lions lose, their postseason fate will be decided by the Redskins.
Fantasy Tidbit: Detroit allowed a season-high 42 points in Week 16.
12. Washington Redskins
Record: 8-6-1
Last Week: 15
It was a tough week for Rob Kelley owners. Kelley led the team with 19 carries but never sniffed the end zone while teammates Mack Brown and Chris Thompson combined for three touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving). DeSean Jackson is on the cusp of his fifth 1,000-yard season. He’s gotten there by going over 100 yards in four of his last five games.
Fantasy Tidbit: Bashaud Breeland and Josh Norman combined for four interceptions in Saturday’s win over the Bears.
13. Baltimore Ravens
Record: 8-7
Last Week: 11
Will Sunday be Steve Smith Sr.’s final game in the NFL? It doesn’t have to be. The 37-year-old proved he can still play at a high level by nabbing seven catches for 79 yards and a touchdown in last week’s loss to Pittsburgh. With the playoffs out of reach, will the Ravens finally let Kenneth Dixon run loose? Dixon and Terrance West both saw 13 touches against the Steelers on Sunday.
Fantasy Tidbit: Dennis Pitta is third among tight ends in catches (75) but only 12th in receiving yards (638).
14. Houston Texans
Record: 9-6
Last Week: 17
Houston is headed to the playoffs for the fourth time in six seasons. Jadeveon Clowney continued his breakout season with another sack Saturday against Cincinnati. He holds PFF’s seventh-highest grade among 3-4 outside linebackers this year, putting him two spots below teammate Whitney Mercilus. Those two are a big reason why Houston has allowed the fewest yards per game in the NFL this year.
Fantasy Tidbit: Before sitting out with an ankle injury in Week 16, Lamar Miller hadn’t missed a game in four years.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 8-7
Last Week: 12
Mike Evans finally woke up in Week 16 (seven catches for 97 yards and a touchdown) but Tampa Bay’s playoffs chances took a big hit by losing to New Orleans. Doug Martin was a healthy scratch for that game. It takes courage to bench a $35 million running back, but Martin made Dirk Koetter’s decision for him by averaging an unacceptable 2.82 yards per carry over his previous six games.
Fantasy Tidbit: Evans’ 1,256 receiving yards are the most by a Buccaneer since Vincent Jackson led the team with 1,384 yards in 2012.
16. Denver Broncos
Record: 8-7
Last Week: 16
How bad was Week 16 for Denver? Put it this way: Dontari Poe threw for more touchdown passes than Trevor Siemian. The Broncos have scored a combined 23 points during their three-game losing streak. For comparison, the Chiefs had 21 points by the end of the first quarter on Sunday. For the first time since 2010, the playoffs won’t be going through Denver.
Fantasy Tidbit: The Broncos have yielded 31.5 points per game to Kansas City this year. Against everyone else, they’ve allowed just 17.5.
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17. New Orleans Saints
Record: 7-8
Last Week: 21
Mark Ingram is closing in on his first 1,000-yard rushing season. He’s matched a career-high with nine touchdowns this year (five rushing, four receiving) and ranks fifth in yards per carry (5.1). Imagine the kind of fantasy year he could have had if Sean Payton weren’t obsessed with Tim Hightower. 142 yards in Week 17 would give Pro Bowl snub Drew Brees his fifth career 5,000-yard passing season.
Fantasy Tidbit: Michael Thomas (981 yards) could be the first Saints rookie to reach 1,000 yards receiving since Marques Colston in 2006.
18. Tennessee Titans
Record: 8-7
Last Week: 14
The Titans laid a big old egg against Jacksonville in Week 16, costing them a chance to win the AFC South. Even if the Titans had snuck in, they wouldn’t have made it far without Marcus Mariota, who is facing a 4-5 month recovery after breaking his fibula. DeMarco Murray has had an incredible bounce-back year but seems to be wearing down. He’s averaged 3.69 yards per carry with only one rushing touchdown over his last five games.
Fantasy Tidbit: Rishard Matthews scored his eighth receiving touchdown in Week 16. That’s as many touchdowns as he had in his first four seasons combined.
19. Indianapolis Colts
Record: 7-8
Last Week: 18
It’s been another mediocre year in Indianapolis as the Colts continue to waste Andrew Luck’s prime. Speaking of guys who are in their prime, T.Y. Hilton has already set new career-highs in targets (144), catches (85) and receiving yards (1,353). He leads the league in the latter category. A beat-up offensive line hasn’t helped but the Colts have only themselves to blame for allowing the sixth-most yards in the NFL.
Fantasy Tidbit: Donte Moncrief has scored a touchdown in six of his last seven games but has only averaged 33.4 yards during that span.
20. Arizona Cardinals
Record: 6-8-1
Last Week: 24
So who’s going No. 1 in fantasy drafts next summer—Zeke, Le’Veon or David Johnson? The case for Johnson is simple—he scores the most touchdowns. Johnson has visited the end zone an incredible 33 times (24 rushing, eight receiving, one return) in 31 career games. He’s also topped 100 yards from scrimmage in every game this season, which has never been done before. It’s hard to believe there were six running backs drafted ahead of Johnson in 2015.
Fantasy Tidbit: J.J. Nelson extended his touchdown streak to four games with an 80-yard score against Seattle in Week 16.
21. Buffalo Bills
Record: 7-8
Last Week: 19
Management sent the Ryan brothers packing after Saturday’s gut-wrenching loss to Miami. That game featured countless blunders including a failed attempt to ice kicker Andrew Franks late in the fourth quarter. In the span of a few months, Anthony Lynn has gone from running backs coach to offensive coordinator to interim head coach. I’d expect that interim label to go away pretty quickly.
Fantasy Tidbit: Sammy Watkins cruised to a season-high 154 yards in Week 16.
22. Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 6-9
Last Week: 26
The Eagles took care of business in Week 16, knocking off the Giants for their first win in over a month. Nelson Agholor came through with a team-high 47 yards while ending a 12-game touchdown drought. The 47 yards were his most since Week 1. Darren Sproles also scored in Week 16, running in a 25-yard touchdown on the team’s opening drive. That extended his touchdown streak to three games.
Fantasy Tidbit: Jordan Matthews has averaged 55 yards with no touchdowns over his last seven games.
23. Minnesota Vikings
Record: 7-8
Last Week: 22
What a collapse. After starting 5-0, the Vikings have fallen out of the NFC playoff race by dropping eight of their last 10. Adrian Peterson’s return lasted one week, the defensive backs (chiefly Terence Newman) aren’t following Mike Zimmer’s game plan and Stefon Diggs appears to have gone into witness protection. At least Sam Bradford threw for a career-high 382 passing yards on Saturday with 202 going to breakout star Adam Thielen.
Fantasy Tidbit: Thielen’s 71-yard touchdown in Week 16 was the longest catch of his career. It was also the Vikings’ longest play from scrimmage in 2016.
24. Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 5-9-1
Last Week: 23
Brandon LaFell is finishing the year with style. He hung a season-high 130 yards on Houston in Week 16 and has now topped 90 yards receiving in three of his last four games. LaFell’s workload has gone way up with Tyler Eifert (back) and A.J. Green (hamstring) both sidelined. Rex Burkhead led the backfield with 16 touches on Saturday but only managed 67 yards from scrimmage while the Bengals lost for the fifth time in seven games.
Fantasy Tidbit: Jeremy Hill’s eight rushing yards on Saturday were his fewest since Week 5 of 2014.
25. Carolina Panthers
Record: 6-9
Last Week: 20
2016 has been a difficult year for the Panthers but that hasn’t stopped Greg Olsen from flexing his fantasy muscles. Olsen has enjoyed one of the greatest stretches of any tight end in history, eclipsing 1,000 yards receiving in three straight seasons. Even Rob Gronkowski has never done that. The Falcons proved to be Carolina’s kryptonite this year, outscoring the Panthers 81-49 in their two meetings.
Fantasy Tidbit: Cam Newton has averaged 25.2 rushing yards per game this season. He averaged 39.8 in 2015.
26. San Diego Chargers
Record: 5-10
Last Week: 25
What is there to say at this point? The Chargers lost to the Browns. There’s no coming back from that. Mike McCoy might be coaching for his job against the Chiefs in Week 17. Antonio Gates has something to play for too. He’s one away from tying Tony Gonzalez’s all-time record for touchdowns by a tight end. Philip Rivers seems to be on board with this pursuit. He targeted Gates a season-high 13 times against Cleveland.
Fantasy Tidbit: Travis Benjamin’s 75 yards against the Browns were his most since Week 5 when he gashed Oakland for a season-high 117 yards.
27. Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 3-12
Last Week: 30
When the stakes are highest, Blake Bortles shrinks like a frightened turtle. But when the Jags are playing for nothing, that’s when Bortles shines. Bortles kicked off the Doug Marrone Era with a 325-yard gem against Tennessee in Week 17. Marrone said the key to Allen Robinson’s success in that game was “moving him around more.” This revolutionary technique is often called coaching. Gus Bradley is Googling that word as we speak.
Fantasy Tidbit: Robinson’s 147 yards in Week 16 were more than he had in his previous five games combined.
28. Chicago Bears
Record: 3-12
Last Week: 27
Matt Barkley has thrown for 300 yards in two straight games. That’s encouraging. Now from the not-so encouraging department: he’s been intercepted eight times in that span. Alshon Jeffery and Jay Cutler are unlikely to return next season but the offense should be in good hands with Cameron Meredith and Jordan Howard. Meredith has averaged 94.5 yards over his last four games while Howard owns the league’s fourth-highest yards per carry (5.1).
Fantasy Tidbit: Jeffery has averaged 90.5 receiving yards in two games since coming back from a four-game PED suspension.
29. New York Jets
Record: 4-11
Last Week: 28
It’s hard to pinpoint when the Jets stopped being competitive but the group they sent to Foxboro in Week 16 barely looked like a professional football team. The Jets’ leading receiver finished with two catches. That’s as many catches as Malcolm Butler had interceptions. Ryan Fitzpatrick will have one last chance to play himself out of the league Sunday versus Buffalo. Remember when the Jets drafted Christian Hackenberg? Where’s the redo button on that?
Fantasy Tidbit: Brandon Marshall has averaged 30 yards during his four-game touchdown drought.
30. San Francisco 49ers
Record: 2-13
Last Week: 31
It’s a shame that Carlos Hyde won’t reach 1,000 yards rushing, but at least the Niners had a perfect 2-0 record against Los Angeles this year. Colin Kaepernick came up big in Saturday’s victory, leading a fourth-quarter comeback with two touchdowns (one rushing, one receiving) and a two-point conversion. The Niners’ 13-game losing streak was the longest in franchise history.
Fantasy Tidbit: Shaun Draughn set season-highs in touches (16) and yards from scrimmage (65) in Saturday’s win.
31. Los Angeles Rams
Record: 4-11
Last Week: 29
At least with Jeff Fisher, each Rams loss came with some kind of hilarious blooper. Now the Rams aren’t even interesting when they lose. Jared Goff completed only 11 passes Saturday as the Rams blew a 14-point fourth quarter lead to a 49ers team that hadn’t won in three months. 2016 can’t end soon enough for the Rams, who have now lost six straight at home and are 0-6 with Goff under center.
Fantasy Tidbit: Tavon Austin rushed for his first touchdown of the season in Week 16. Austin scored four rushing touchdowns during the 2015 campaign.
32. Cleveland Browns
Record: 1-14
Last Week: 32
The Browns ended a 17-game losing streak with Saturday’s win over San Diego. Isaiah Crowell scored two touchdowns in the victory while erasing a six-game touchdown drought. Not only were the Browns able to avoid the embarrassment of a winless season, but they also held onto the No. 1 pick by virtue of San Francisco’s win over Los Angeles. They’re still last in the Power Rankings, but this was one of the Browns’ better weeks.
Fantasy Tidbit: Robert Griffin III has been sacked 18 times in four games this year. He was sacked seven times for a loss of 37 yards in Week 16.
Biggest Rise: Cardinals, Eagles, Saints
4
Biggest Fall: Panthers
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