One of the things that offseason fantasy analysis naturally invokes is looking backwards and forwards through the lens of bulk production. Focusing on bulk stats leads to saying things such as “Jordan Matthews was the WR16 in 2015” and promotes things such as “this player’s future projections would’ve made him the RB9 last season” without proper context. Nearly every player’s bulk production tells a different story on a weekly level, where fantasy wins are decided and stacked.
The other thing that happens when focusing on bulk output that has already occurred and fixating on future bulk projections is that you can start to develop tunnel vison for a player’s outcome over the course of the summer. Projections should be used in a fashion as a guideline to the most probable outcome, but never in a linearly without fault because projections are inherently fragile due to the nature of the NFL. Through the course of injuries and inept play, the landscape when Week 17 ends will undoubtedly be different than the one we set sail on in August drafts. We know this, yet we still often ignore it.
Here are some players that I’ve been targeting so far this summer to fill out my rosters that I believe are priced in at what I deem their highest probable outcome already, but offer underlying upside that can make them a value. The key here is that those floors are also desirable at their cost.
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I believe Ameer Abdullah has a major ceiling that can smash his cost if Theo Riddick were to go down, but I’m not confident that his most probable outcome isn’t just fantasy purgatory since he has no true grasp on the receiving or goal line work in the starting offensive outlook. If his base usage holds true to last season – even if similar to his usage over the final seven weeks- then he’s barely pushing flex play status.
Also, because I’m talking probable floors that are usable here, I’m going to avoid those players that truly gain massive elevation strictly due to injury and focus on players that you can use right out of the box in some capacity still. Guys such as Jerick McKinnon, Wendell Smallwood, either Dallas backup running back, and others I’m sure you’re screaming as you read stand to potentially greatly effect leagues if what’s ahead of them on the depth chart breaks their way, but don’t necessarily have a lot of standalone juice prior to those events occurring.
Just to add more caveats, I’m also going to leave off rookies with no known floor and am going to focus on players going in the 5th round and beyond here as opposed to the start of the draft where all players are treated more for their potential ceiling output firsthand. Also keep in mind that ADP this time of the year is very fluid, so keep tabs on the movement of these players over the final month of the summer. Now that we’ve met all of the prerequisites, let’s get to it.
Giovani Bernard: Aggregate PPR ADP of RB25 (65th overall)
Probability Priced In: Bernard has never finished outside of the top-20 in overall scoring in any of his first three seasons, regardless of scoring format. In terms of points per game, he’s ranked 17th (13.8), 12th (14.5) and 28th (11.3) to date and was 17th in receptions per game (3.1) amongst running backs last year. Over the past two years, Bernard has been a top-30 scorer in 19 of his 29 games played. Bernard’s main hindrance from crashing through his ceiling in fantasy is being unable to find the end zone and he’s scored just six times over his past 22 games played. Over that same span, Bernard has just seven rushing attempts from the 5-yard line and in compared to 27 for Jeremy Hill.
Upside: Bernard has upside to outkick his price point through multiple avenues. First, an injury to Hill or if Hill is as ineffective as he was last season opens the door for much more work for Bernard. But there’s fundamental upside that may exist even without either occurring. With the losses of Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert’s ankle injury putting his start to the season in jeopardy, Bernard is not only the most familiar receiver for Andy Dalton outside of A.J. Green locked in to start the season, but also may be asked more to compensate in that area if Brandon LaFell and/or Tyler Boyd aren’t productive. Couple that with the fact that the Bengals could throw more this season if they aren’t able to maintain the lofty offensive efficiency they carried last season. In 2015, Cincinnati as 10th in yards per drive (32.4 yards), 5th in points per drive (2.1) and 4th in red zone opportunities per game (3.6). The Bengals trailed for just 25.5 percent of their offensive plays last season, the 4th fewest in the league, but in those situations, they passed 73.4 percent of the time, the second highest rate in the league. I already touched on Hill’s potentially limited range of outcomes, but he does carry a similar price point and his ceiling outcome is basically the inverse play of everything laid out here.
DeVante Parker: Aggregate PPR ADP of WR33 (66th overall)
Probability Priced In: I expected to dislike Parker earlier in the summer when it appeared as if he’d carry a top-24 cost as I have reservations about the Dolphins passing outlook given a projectable unfavorable road schedule wise this upcoming season, something that both Mike Clay has written about and Warren Sharp has as well. But Parker’s price has cooled off as we’ve progressed and settled in more rationally as a lower end WR3 on your roster. Over the final six weeks of 2015, Parker’s PPR weekly finishes were WR20, WR28, WR85, WR40, WR24 and WR12. Over that six game span, Parker had just 61 fewer yards than his teammate, Jarvis Landry on 29 fewer targets as he closed the season with 87, 93 and 106 receiving yards over his final three games.
Upside: Parker did all of that damage while seeing just 19 percent of the Miami targets over that span and catching just 51 percent of those looks, both marks that have room to swell naturally through his own progression in his second season. The Miami offense will have a different look under Adam Gase this season, so Parker could see his usage turn towards bigger X types in Demaryius Thomas and Alshon Jeffery, but a Jarvis Landry injury also puts Parker in position to tally even more opportunity. Landry ranked 10th in the NFL in targets per game last season (10.4) and while he could see less volume in this offense, any absence would elevate Parker even further.
Marvin Jones: Aggregate PPR ADP of WR37 (82nd overall)
Probability Priced In: Jones received more money than any other free agent on the market this offseason by signing with the Lions, but the 26-year old Jones has never even reached 900 receiving yards in a season going all the way back to college. Despite failing to post gaudy yardage, Jones has still turned in two top-36 scoring seasons in each of his past two seasons played while seeing just 5.0 and 6.4 targets per game in those years, but ranked 34th and 45th in points per game.
Upside: While the 10 touchdowns Jones scored in 2013 may inevitably be the apex of scoring prowess for his career, there’s much more room for his target totals to inflate. Calvin Johnson and Lance Moore are both gone from the Detroit roster and accumulated 192 targets between themselves. While Golden Tate stands to take a sprinkling of those on top of his 128 targets from a year ago, and Detroit brought in soon to be 36-year old Anquan Boldin for depth on a one year deal, there’s no reason to believe that Jones won’t see a new career-high in targets naturally as Detroit had the highest passing rate in the league last season at 65.7 percent overall and ranked 5th in passing rate (58.7 percent) while leading on the scoreboard. By all accounts, this will be a pass first offense and if Golden Tate were ever to be hampered or lost, Jones would see an already expected rise in targets grow, even with the addition of Boldin.
Charles Sims: Aggregate PPR ADP of RB32 (85th overall)
Probability Priced In: After a disastrously inefficient rookie season in which Sims battled an ankle injury and averaged just 2.8 yards per carry, he bounced back as being one of the most efficient running backs per touch last season. Although he benefitted from facing more nickel and dime defensive packages, Mike Clay notes that Sims still ranked 6th in adjusted yards per carry when accounted for defensive packages last season as Sims nearly doubled his rookie season yards per attempt. Accounting for multiple top backs getting injured, Sims still ranked 30th of all backs in yards from scrimmage per game (68.1 yards) and 30th in points per game (11.3), right where his current price lies.
Upside: If Doug Martin where to miss anytime, Sims would stand to gain more of a bellcow role than almost all of the other “pass catching back” fantasy options. Sims and Martin combined for 29.9 touches per game with two thirds of those going to Martin. Dirk Koetter has always involved his back heavily into his offensive game plans in both rushing capacities, so Sims would instantly become a weekly RB1 in PPR leagues based on volume coupled with receiving upside alone. While I don’t prefer him apples to apples, Sims is being drafted over 30 picks later than Duke Johnson, a player that may not be overly dissimilar in terms of usage and one that he already bested in yards from scrimmage per game and trumped in top-24 scoring weeks a season ago seven to five even while Browns ran 102 more pass plays than Tampa Bay last season.
Ladarius Green: Aggregate PPR ADP of TE9 (87th overall)
Probability Priced In: Green is coming off of offseason ankle surgery, so we haven’t seen his ADP catch fire like it could still late in the summer. Last year a 33-year old Heath Miller had 81 targets in 15 games, which is 67 percent of Green’s career 122 target total. Even if Green only accumulated the same share of targets over as Miller for 16 games, 85 targets at Green’s career output per target would put him at 54 receptions for 757 yards and seven touchdowns, right at the average seasonal TE10 output over the past years.
Upside: A baseline of Miller’s targets puts Green right at his price point, but there are a few avenues for Green to see more targets than that outside of just being a younger, better model. Green is trading Philip Rivers, who has ranked in the bottom third in average depth of target (aDOT) in three of the past four seasons per Pro Football Focus for Ben Roethlisberger, who has ranked 4th and 6th the past two seasons. Miller seen 6.3 more targets per game without Le’Veon Bell active last season, giving Green the opening month to a significant mark on the offense. Green could also benefit from Martavis Bryant’s suspension if Darrius Heyward-Bey or Sammie Coates don’t seize the opportunity of Bryant’s departure, especially in the red zone. Miller also had 13 red zone looks in 2015 and has averaged 14.5 over the past four seasons, while Green has 15 career red zone targets.
Rashad Jennings: Aggregate PPR ADP of RB38 (97th overall)
Probability Priced In: Jennings is now 31-years old, never has reached 200 rushing attempts in any season of his career and also in a potentially crowded backfield in which we already know that he doesn’t have a grasp on the bulk of the receiving work. The potential cluster that is the Giants backfield is being priced in already, but even last season Jennings had just four weeks outside of the top-36 scorers at his position.
Upside: Jennings still ranked 29th in touches per game (14.0) and 23rd in yards from scrimmage per game (72.4) and even though Shane Vereen vacuumed up targets, Jennings still found his way to 29 receptions and 40 targets. As for his potential ceiling, we got a good look at it what can happen if Jennings holds a grip on that backfield rotation as over the Giants final four games, they gave Jennings at least 60 percent of the team carries in each game after averaging 40 percent through the first 12 weeks. During those weeks, Jennings closed the season as the RB21, RB14, RB19 and the RB1 in weekly scoring with two of those games coming against Carolina and Minnesota. Jennings has made a living recently of fooling us in fantasy with spouts of high ceiling small samples, but at RB4 pricing, I’m willing to be fooled again based on belief that the Giants offense will be one of the league’s best while having a tremendously favorable outlook on paper per Warren Sharp.
Kamar Aiken: Aggregate PPR ADP of WR50 (118th overall)
Probability Priced In: With all of the uncertainty surrounding the Ravens pass catchers, Aiken has still yet to make a significant jump in ADP. Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman still provide pure upside plays in this offense, but also bottomless floors from this unit while Aiken remains the play with the most solid footing on snaps on targets. Even before Steve Smith’s injury last season Aiken was a flex consideration as he was averaging 6.2 targets per game and had scored double digit fantasy points in four of those six games.
Upside: We’ve already seen his upside last season as a feature receiver when he finished as a top-20 scorer in five of eight games without Steve Smith with just one of those weeks outside of the top-36 while playing six of those games without Joe Flacco. I’d expect for Wallace to be the team’s starting flanker, but Wallace and Perriman may end cannibalizing each other’s seasonal value if Wallace remains on the path his past two seasons have suggested and Perriman remains healthy. 37-year old Steve Smith’s availability to start the season has also remained ominous to date through himself and the team. The Ravens also has no clarity at tight end, meaning Aiken is the most reliable receiver on a Marc Trestman offense. There’s little to no chance we see Aiken roll over the 160 plus target pace he was on over a full season over the final eight games and I anticipate Baltimore will pass less overall in 2016, but Aiken has a low bar to hurdle at his current cost.
Bilal Powell: Aggregate PPR ADP of RB44 (119th overall)
Probability Priced In: With the Jets bringing in Matt Forte to replace Chris Ivory, Powell’s grip on passing down work is in jeopardy. Even so, Powell still stands to see opportunities this season as he signed a three-year, $11.3M contract (with $6M guaranteed) while Forte received a three-year, $12M deal ($9M guaranteed) and there have been multiple early reports that Forte won’t be asked to shoulder the workload alone. Regardless of the degree of truth to those reports, Forte compromises the 69 reception full season pace Powell was on last season, but Powell averaged 9.8 points per game in games in which he played under 50 percent of the Jets snaps, so there’s room for him to hold flex play status even if the share of opportunities shade to Forte.
Upside: Obviously, a Forte injury opens things up for Powell to be a fringe RB1, even if Powell shares rushing snaps with Khiry Robinson, but the Jets potential game script opens up upside for Powell even while Forte is healthy. The Jets trailed for just 40.7 percent of their offensive plays in 2015 (12th fewest rate in the league), but on those plays, they threw the ball 71.2 percent of the time (7th highest). The Jets went 6-2 last season versus the NFC East and AFC South while trading those matchups for the NFC West and AFC North as they play one of the hardest projected schedules in the league. Even sharing snaps with Forte, the passing volume should be plentiful enough to keep Powell on the board as flex play weekly with the upside for more. I like Forte as a potential value, but Powell several rounds after the fact offers the cheapest way to buy into the Jets potentially voluminous offense at the skill positions.
Vincent Jackson: Aggregate PPR ADP of WR51 (129th overall)
Probability Priced In: There’s definitely moderate probability that Jackson is just about done in terms of fantasy relevancy. He just turned 33-years old this past January and is coming off a season in which he missed six games due to knee issues. Jackson has never averaged five receptions per game over the course of a season in his career and has just five touchdowns over his past 26 games. Still, Tampa Bay has little in the way of him seeing another 100 plus targets and Jackson scored double digit fantasy points in five of the six games in which he had at least five targets, finishing at a top-48 scorer in every one of those games.
Upside: Jackson has natural upside at his cost and expected target total if Jameis Winston progresses significantly in year two, but he also is a Mike Evans injury away from flirting with 140 plus targets again given the lack of experienced pass catching depth on the Tampa Bay roster. In games Evans has missed over the past two years, Jackson seen 12 and 11 targets. Evan a potential Evans injury won’t make Jackson a league winner as he turned 142 targets in 2014 into just a WR33 season overall, but he’s a cheap value play as your 5th wide receiver.
Mohamed Sanu: Aggregate PPR ADP of WR52 (136th overall)
Probability Priced In: Even though Sanu signed a hefty deal, the limited use of secondary receivers in a Kyle Shanahan offense are overly documented. Roddy White and Leonard Hankerson combined for 116 targets in 2015, but combined for just four top-30 scoring weeks with just seven top-40 ones. The only time Sanu has the second option in a passing game and even sniffed triple digit targets in a season was in 2014 when Cincinnati had injuries to A.J. Green, Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert. That year, Sanu turned 98 targets into 56 catches for 790 yards and five scores while ranking 42nd in points per game.
Upside: If Sanu can claim even 100 of those vacated targets and maintain his career average of 1.8 fantasy points per target, then you’re already ahead of the game for your investment. Sanu also is just one play away from being the Falcons’ lead receiver if anything happens to Julio Jones. While he’s far from Jones, lead receiver yards have shown to largely be replaceable and Sanu showed that himself in 2014 when A.J. Green missed three games with a toe injury. In that small sample, Sanu had 10.7 targets per game and averaged 99.9 yards receiving. While banking on those types of numbers is lofty, a Jones injury opens Sanu up to a truckload of targets and there’s little on Atlanta’s roster to get in Sanu’s way. Sanu also could very well see a target bump if any injury were to occur to Devonta Freeman as well. When Freeman missed Week 12 after his concussion, White seen eight targets, tied for his second highest total on the season and well above his 4.7 targets per game mark with that game removed.
Phillip Dorsett: Aggregate PPR ADP of WR58 (157th overall)
Probability Priced In: Dorsett missed five games as a rookie as he dealt with concussion, ankle and hamstring issues to go along with the fact the Colts offensive internally combusted due to injuries all around. In the 11 games that Dorsett did play, he did little that noteworthy, catching less than half of his 38 targets on the season for just one touchdown. In a very small sample of three games to start to the season (the only games he played with Andrew Luck), Dorsett was on a 600-yard, five touchdown full season pace.
Upside: The Colts have 202 missing targets from their roster a year ago and Donte Moncrief and T.Y. Hilton can only take so many of those on top of what they were already receiving. 84 missing targets can be tied directly to Coby Fleener, but even if Dwayne Allen and those receivers eat up close to two thirds of those departed a target, that leaves Dorsett to claim possibly another 50 plus targets on top of the 39 he already seen a year ago. The Colts are already expected to be a three wide receiver team for the bulk of their offensive snaps and if anything were to happen to Hilton and/or Moncrief, Dorsett would only soak up more opportunity given what is behind him on the depth chart. In terms of required cost, last year’s first round pick is attached to immediate opportunity in a potentially strong offense and has lanes for even more targets that can be had for minimal investment.
This isn’t everyone that I’m looking at in drafts that covers these prerequisites of probable cost with upside not fully priced in. I touched on Torrey Smith and Willie Snead already in the wide receiver notebook, Dwayne Allen and Eric Ebron in the tight end one, and Frank Gore when looking at running backs. There are several others out there, so feel free to make a case for your favorite guys below.
