Happy New Year! If you’re reading this, you either still have a league championship this weekend, really love fantasy football or you’re wading into the Daily Fantasy waters. Week 17 can be a weird week with players resting and some being shut down, so we’ll navigate all of that in this slightly abbreviated version of this column.
Let me provide the disclaimer that I encourage you use the game by game tables and data points in conjunction with your own information and thought process rather than searching out your own players in the individual player diagnosis and turning that section into a linear start/sit guide. This is an evidence-based expectation based column that you can always cross reference these thoughts with my weekly rankings for further context. With that out of the way, let’s hit all of the Week 17 games with a PPR light…
New England vs. Miami
| Patriots | Rank | @ | Dolphins | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -9.5 | Spread | 9.5 | ||
| 27.0 | Implied Total | 17.5 | ||
| 66.2 | 8 | Plays/Gm | 57.1 | 32 |
| 62.7 | 11 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 68.3 | 30 |
| 45.6% | 4 | Rush% | 44.7% | 6 |
| 54.4% | 29 | Pass% | 55.3% | 27 |
| 36.7% | 6 | Opp. Rush % | 42.4% | 24 |
| 63.3% | 27 | Opp. Pass % | 57.6% | 9 |
- Miami has scored on 40 percent of their possessions the past two weeks after scoring on 30.7 percent prior.
- Opponents have scored on just 27.2 percent of their possessions against New England, the lowest rate in the league.
- New England has allowed a league-low .158 points per play over the past three weeks.
- Jay Ajayi is the fourth player ever to rush for 200 or more yards in three games in a season and the first since Tiki Barber in 2005.
- Ajayi is just the third player ever to rush for 200 or more yards against the same team twice in a season, joining Jamal Lewis in 2003 (Cleveland) and O.J. Simpson in 1973 (New England).
- Julian Edelman has played just 60.9 percent of the snaps over the past four weeks, but has been in on 87 percent of the passing plays with Tom Brady under center over that span.
- LeGarrette Blount has scored a rushing touchdown in 12 games on the season, two more than the next highest player.
Trust: Tom Brady (Brady’s pass attempts have dropped in each of the past three games, but the Pats need to win to secure home field and were in this exact same spot a year ago and lost in Miami, so I do believe they’ll play this out and put points up)
Bust: Kenny Stills (he’s scored in four of his past five games, but without a touchdown his average week is WR78), Martellus Bennett (he’s averaging just 3.5 targets per game over his past six with two games better than TE15 over his past 10), Dion Lewis (he has 34 carries over the past two weeks, but doesn’t carry the short yardage touches to cover missing out on being involved in the passing game), Malcolm Mitchell (Mitchell has basically become the New England version of Donte Moncrief. You can chase a touchdown, but the yardage floor is very low)
Reasonable Return: Matt Moore (he’s had 15 plus points in each start and the Dolphins have smoked both of their implied team totals the past two weeks, so I’m a little cautious to completely bury him even against a hot defense), Jarvis Landry (he’s cleared six targets just twice over his past eight games, but if there’s a weakness in attacking the New England secondary, it’s through the slot), Jay Ajayi (he’s had incredible highs that have covered some floor moments, but he’s a virtual lock to flirt with 20 touches), Julian Edelman (he’s been preserved in two wide sets for running downs, but has still been on the field for nearly all of the passing work), LeGarrette Blount (you’re playing Blount for late touches and touchdown upside, two things that have remained constant all season)
Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis
| Jaguars | Rank | @ | Colts | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Spread | -4.5 | ||
| 21.5 | Implied Total | 26.0 | ||
| 65.4 | 11 | Plays/Gm | 64.7 | 12 |
| 64.2 | 20 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.5 | 15 |
| 36.9% | 27 | Rush% | 39.9% | 17 |
| 63.1% | 6 | Pass% | 60.1% | 16 |
| 44.0% | 28 | Opp. Rush % | 39.8% | 14 |
| 56.0% | 5 | Opp. Pass % | 60.2% | 19 |
- Frank Gore needs 36 rushing yards to become the sixth player 33 years old or older to rush for 1,000 yards in a season and the first since John Riggins in 1984.
- Gore now has 11 consecutive seasons with 1,200 or more yards from scrimmage, the longest streak in NFL history.
- Only 21.6 percent of the yardage gained against Jacksonville the past three weeks has come from rushing output, the lowest rate in the league.
- 40.9 percent of Donte Moncrief‘s fantasy output has stemmed from receiving touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
- The Jaguars allow just 220.4 passing yards per game to opposing passers (third) and just 6.5 yards per pass attempt (second).
- Allen Robinson had three receptions of 20 or more yards last week after having just four receptions of 20 or more yards over his previous 12 games.
- In Blake Bortles’ past three starts against the Colts he has been the QB6, QB3 and QB3.
Trust: Blake Bortles (ready to double down on Bortles to close the season as he’s had a lot of success versus a Colts defense that has allowed multiple touchdown passes in 10 games on the season)
Bust: Colts Tight Ends (the targets are being spread out between three options), T.Y. Hilton (he had just 42 yards in the first meeting between these teams and the Jags have allowed just one top-20 receiver over their past eight games), Donte Moncrief (you know the drill, he’s fine if you’re chasing a score from your WR3, but even with seven touchdowns, he’s only been a top-24 scorer twice on the year)
Reasonable Return: Chris Ivory (he played a season-high 42 snaps last week with 18 touches and the Colts have allowed the 8th most points to backfields, but did aggravate his hamstring, so monitor his week. If he’s out, Jacksonville will likely run a hodepodge committee), Allen Robinson (I would attribute the majority of him snapping out of his slump to the opponent he faced last week, but the Colts secondary is no daunting task themselves), Marqise Lee (he’s been a top-20 scorer in three of his past five and outside of the top-36 in just two of his past seven), Andrew Luck (the Jags have been stingy to passing games, but Luck has been a top-10 scorer in five straight with a pair of touchdowns in every one of those games), Frank Gore (he’s a fine RB2 floor play, but just two backs have hit 75 yards on the ground versus Jacksonville over the past eight weeks)
Carolina vs. Tampa Bay
| Panthers | Rank | @ | Buccaneers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spread | -6 | ||
| 17.3 | Implied Total | 26.3 | ||
| 65.7 | 9 | Plays/Gm | 66.9 | 5 |
| 64.8 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.1 | 12 |
| 42.7% | 8 | Rush% | 42.7% | 9 |
| 57.3% | 25 | Pass% | 57.3% | 24 |
| 36.1% | 4 | Opp. Rush % | 41.8% | 22 |
| 63.9% | 29 | Opp. Pass % | 58.3% | 11 |
- With Doug Martin inactive, Jacquizz Rogers played 37 snaps while Charles Sims played 24.
- Just 30.7 percent of the plays run against Carolina the past three weeks have been rushing plays, the lowest rate in the league.
- Mike Evans is the first Tampa Bay player to have multiple seasons with double digit touchdown receptions.
- Carolina allows 290.6 passing yards per game to opposing passers, the most in the league.
- After allowing just six touchdowns over their five previous games, Tampa Bay has allowed five the past two weeks.
- The Panthers have scored on 36.4 percent of their drives this season (18th) after scoring on 45.9 percent of their drives in 2015 (fourth).
- Since Week 11, Cam Newton has completed 91 of 200 passes (45.5 percent), the lowest rate in the league.
- Newton averages 25.2 rushing yards per game, the lowest total of his career. His previous career low was 36.6 yards rushing per game in 2013.
Trust: Mike Evans (always a threat for touchdown appeal and Carolina has struggled the most with vertical playmakers)
Bust: Cam Newton (he’s been a top-12 scorer just five times all season and enters this week on the road with a minuscule expected team total), Jacquizz Rogers (he churned out an RB12 finish when these teams met in Week 5, but needed 35 touches to get there, something that is unlikely to happen this week with Charles Sims siphoning touches), Kelvin Benjamin (he’s scored in just two of his past 11 games and been a top-30 scorer just twice over that span)
Reasonable Return: Jameis Winston (he’s gone under 15 points just four times and over 20 just four times), Jonathan Stewart (if you don’t get a short score, his floor has been unusable, but the Bucs have allowed a top-12 back in three of their past four games), Greg Olsen (he’s come back with three straight top-8 weeks but still has just one touchdown over his past 11 games)
Chicago vs. Minnesota
| Bears | Rank | @ | Vikings | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | Spread | -5.5 | ||
| 18.3 | Implied Total | 23.3 | ||
| 60.5 | 29 | Plays/Gm | 62.9 | 23 |
| 63.3 | 14 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.3 | 8 |
| 37.8% | 23 | Rush% | 37.3% | 25 |
| 62.2% | 10 | Pass% | 62.7% | 8 |
| 43.9% | 27 | Opp. Rush % | 39.3% | 12 |
| 56.1% | 6 | Opp. Pass % | 60.7% | 21 |
- Jordan Howard‘s six 100-yard rushing games is a Chicago franchise record for a rookie running back.
- When these teams last met in Week 8, the Bears ran for a season-high 158 rushing yards.
- Minnesota has allowed 72 points and 759 yards the past two weeks after allowing 17.3 points and 304.3 yards per game prior.
- The Vikings have allowed four touchdowns in back to back games after a 17-game streak of not letting any opponent score four touchdowns in a game.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Cameron Meredith leads the league in receptions (21) and receiving yards (279) from the slot over the past four weeks.
- Jerick McKinnon‘s 28 receptions over the past five weeks trail only David Johnson (30) among running backs.
- Since Week 11 Adam Thielen has out-targeted Stefon Diggs 46 to 31, has 36 receptions compared to 23 and has 507 receiving yards to 193 for Diggs over that span.
Trust: Cameron Meredith (he’s been the favorite target for Barkley and has had three straight top-12 scoring weeks while he can avoid the premium Minnesota defenders out of the slot)
Bust: Stefon Diggs (he’s been the average WR47 over the past five weeks), Sam Bradford (it’s doubtful that he’s placed in a situation to chase late game catch up points like he was last week), Matt Barkley (outside of crazy point chasing conditions he just hasn’t been that useful for fantasy purposes and that’s something that may not happen here in an expected lower scoring game)
Reasonable Return: Jerick McKinnon (he’s been a firm RB2 option in each of the past five weeks due to his involvement as a pass catcher), Kyle Rudolph (he’s been a top-12 scorer in five straight and a in six of the past seven), Jordan Howard (you’re getting a solid yardage floor weekly, but the touchdowns have been elusive as he’s scored in just five games on the season), Adam Thielen (he’s scored double digit points in seven of his past eight games, but has just two weeks higher than WR27), Alshon Jeffery (although he has another tough draw on the perimeter, he’s had 19 targets since returning)
Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh
| Browns | Rank | @ | Steelers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spread | -7 | ||
| 18.3 | Implied Total | 25.3 | ||
| 60.4 | 30 | Plays/Gm | 63.8 | 4 |
| 66.5 | 27 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.3 | 4 |
| 35.0% | 31 | Rush% | 39.8% | 18 |
| 65.0% | 2 | Pass% | 60.2% | 15 |
| 47.1% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 36.5% | 5 |
| 52.9% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 63.5% | 28 |
- The Steelers average 409.1 yards per game at home (third) as opposed to 348.2 per game on the road (14th).
- Le’Veon Bell has 192 touches since Week 11, 42 more than the next highest player David Johnson.
- Antonio Brown has 40 percent of the Pittsburgh receiving touchdowns, the highest share for a player in the league.
- 51.7 percent of the Cleveland yardage gained the past three weeks has been on the ground, the highest share in the league over that span.
- Cleveland has attempted just 28 passes per game over that stretch, the second fewest in the league.
- Just 35.2 percent of the passing points allowed by the Steelers have come via touchdown passes, the fourth best rate in the league.
- Terrelle Pryor has caught 63 percent of his targets from Cody Kessler as opposed to 48 percent from Robert Griffin and 44 percent from Josh McCown.
- The Browns have faced the sixth fewest pass attempts, but allow the most passing points per attempt in the league (.533).
- 48.9 percent of the passing points allowed by the Browns have come from touchdown passes, the highest rate in the league.
REST ALERT: Pittsburgh is locked into the No. 3 seed in the AFC. No one here can be trusted, even DeAngelo Williams if Le’Veon Bell rests, who hasn’t been active since Week 9.
Reasonable Return: Isaiah Crowell (he’s the only Cleveland player that has any scoring upside), Terrelle Pryor (a change back to Kessler and a Pittsburgh defense possibly resting some components can put Pryor back on the WR3 map)
Buffalo vs. New York (AFC)
| Bills | Rank | @ | Jets | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6 | Spread | 6 | ||
| 25.0 | Implied Total | 19.0 | ||
| 63.3 | 19 | Plays/Gm | 62.8 | 24 |
| 63.9 | 17 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.5 | 10 |
| 48.8% | 2 | Rush% | 41.2% | 13 |
| 51.2% | 31 | Pass% | 58.8% | 20 |
| 45.8% | 30 | Opp. Rush % | 42.6% | 26 |
| 54.2% | 3 | Opp. Pass % | 57.4% | 7 |
- The Jets have scored on just 21.4 percent (15 of 70) of their possessions over their past six games, only ahead of the Rams (19 percent) over that span.
- New York is last in the league in yards per point on offense (20.2).
- Opponents have attempted just 24.3 passes per game against the Jets the past three weeks, the fewest in the league.
- The Bills have lost six games in which they’ve scored 24 or more points, tying the 2012 Saints for the most such losses in a season.
- Charles Clay has 25.8 percent of the Buffalo targets the past three weeks after seeing 16.8 percent prior.
Trust: LeSean McCoy (he’s the only Buffalo player you can have faith in this week given the quarterback change and Buffalo should control this game regardless)
Bust: Robby Anderson (without Bryce Petty, he’s not an option), Ryan Fitzpatrick (his one useful fantasy game came against the Bills, but we’re long removed from believing in him as an option), Brandon Marshall (no one wants to hit the offseason more than Marshall owners)
Reasonable Return: Sammy Watkins/Charles Clay (both get downgraded a touch with E.J. Manuel starting, but the Jets defense still can give both enough appeal), Bilal Powell (he should still flirt with flex status as a floor given he should garner 15-20 touches with receiving upside)
Dallas vs. Philadelphia
| Cowboys | Rank | @ | Eagles | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spread | -6 | ||
| 18.3 | Implied Total | 24.3 | ||
| 63.8 | 15 | Plays/Gm | 67.0 | 4 |
| 62.3 | 9 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.7 | 6 |
| 50.0% | 1 | Rush% | 40.6% | 15 |
| 50.1% | 32 | Pass% | 59.4% | 18 |
| 33.2% | 1 | Opp. Rush % | 40.0% | 15 |
| 66.8% | 32 | Opp. Pass % | 60.0% | 18 |
- Ezekiel Elliott‘s eight 100-yard rushing games are the most by a rookie back since Clinton Portis in 2002.
- Elliott’s 1,631 rushing yards are the third most ever by a rookie back. He is 43 yards behind second place George Rogers and 177 yards behind Eric Dickerson.
- If all of his peripheral stats hold, Dak Prescott will be the first rookie quarterback to ever complete at least 65 percent of his passes with an interception rate less than one percent while also passing for at least 8.0 yards per attempt.
- The Eagles have allowed just 11 touchdowns at home this season, the fewest in the league.
- In the four games in which Darren Sproles received at least 20 percent of the team touches, his average finish for the week has been RB21.
- Sproles’ 1.16 points per touch leads all backs with over 100 touches on the season.
REST ALERT: Dallas has clinched home field throughout the NFC Playoffs. Playing time will be suspect for all of the Dallas skill players. You can chase Darren McFadden as a flex/RB2.
Trust: Darren Sproles (he’s all that’s left standing, Sproles should have a steady RB2 floor with the upside for more)
Bust: Carson Wentz (he hasn’t been a top-12 scorer since Week 3 and there may be a thin line to access volume if Dallas lays down)
Reasonable Return: Zach Ertz (his hot streak came when Philly was consistently chasing the scoreboard, something that may be compromised, but Dallas allows the second most receptions per game to opposing tight ends), Jordan Matthews (he’s a bit banged up, but has tormented the Cowboys over his early career, catching a touchdown in four of five games with 20 receptions over his past two)
Houston vs. Tennessee
| Texans | Rank | @ | Titans | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 18.5 | Implied Total | 21.5 | ||
| 66.5 | 6 | Plays/Gm | 63.3 | 21 |
| 59.4 | 1 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.8 | 16 |
| 43.5% | 7 | Rush% | 47.1% | 3 |
| 56.5% | 26 | Pass% | 52.9% | 30 |
| 41.3% | 20 | Opp. Rush % | 34.9% | 2 |
| 58.7% | 13 | Opp. Pass % | 65.1% | 31 |
- Houston has scored a touchdown on just 12.4 percent (21 of 170) of their possessions, the worst rate in the league.
- The Texans average 288.4 yards per game on the road (31st) as opposed to 340.9 per game at home.
- Houston averages a league worst 14.4 points per game on the road.
- After allowing 135.4 rushing yards per game through seven weeks, the Texans have allowed just 68 per game since, the fewest in the league.
- Tennessee allows 27.4 passing yards per drive, 31st in the league.
- DeAndre Hopkins has reached 75 receiving yards just twice all season after hitting that mark 11 times in 2015.
REST ALERT: Houston is locked into the No. 4 spot in the AFC, but with Tom Savage just taking over as the starter, they are a lower risk for resting players outside of Lamar Miller again.
Bust: Delanie Walker (he can be serviceable even with Matt Cassel taking over, but Houston has allowed just three tight ends to hit 50-yards this season and just three touchdowns to the position), DeMarco Murray (he’s slowed down the stretch, rushing for just 3.7 YPC over the past five weeks while Houston hasn’t allowed a back to go over 70 yards on the ground since Week 7)
Reasonable Return: Alfred Blue (there’s no reason for Houston to push Miller back this week and Blue can be a RB2 on volume alone), DeAndre Hopkins (if there ever was a time for him to have his first 100-yard since Week 2 it would be against this Tennessee secondary that just awoke the ghost of Allen Robinson), Tom Savage (you can stream him, but it would be on matchup alone as Tennessee has allowed 17 or more points to nine of the past 10 quarterbacks they’ve faced), Rishard Matthews (he has double digit points in seven of his past eight games while Houston has allowed seven top-20 receivers over their past seven games)
Baltimore vs. Cincinnati
| Ravens | Rank | @ | Bengals | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 19.3 | Implied Total | 21.8 | ||
| 67.3 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 65.5 | 10 |
| 61.7 | 7 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.5 | 22 |
| 34.8% | 32 | Rush% | 41.5% | 12 |
| 65.2% | 1 | Pass% | 58.5% | 21 |
| 37.4% | 7 | Opp. Rush % | 40.9% | 17 |
| 62.6% | 26 | Opp. Pass % | 59.1% | 16 |
- The Bengals have averaged 318.8 yards of offense the past six weeks after averaging 380.8 yards prior.
- Opponents have scored a touchdown on 13.5 percent of their drives (10 of 74) against Cincinnati since Week 10, the third lowest rate in the league.
- Since returning in Week 9, Steve Smith has outscored Mike Wallace 113.5 to 89.6 while Wallace has finished as a top-30 receiver just twice.
- Jeremy Hill played just 13 snaps in Week 16, his lowest total on the season.
- Since A.J. Green‘s injury, Brandon LaFell is the WR14 in fantasy scoring (14.7 points per game) and 11th in receiving yardage (376).
- Baltimore allows 25.1 points per game on the road as opposed to 14.8 per game at home.
- Andy Dalton has averaged 6.0 yards per pass attempt the past seven games after averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt through eight games.
Bust: Jeremy Hill (Hill is banged up to the point that he can’t be trusted in a poor matchup on limited opportunity), Andy Dalton (with this team gutted at the playmaking spots, Dalton’s performance has sunk), Joe Flacco (he’s hit 15 points just six times while the Bengal defense has been strong since coming out of their bye), Mike Wallace (he’s been quiet since Smith returned and scored just one touchdown over that span while the Bengals eliminate boundary receivers), Terrance West (his only path to points is if Baltimore creates a layup opportunity for a short rushing score), Tyler Boyd (he’s been inside of the top-40 just once since Green went down and is now working behind Cody Core in terms of getting looks)
Reasonable Return: Brandon LaFell (all of those targets and yards going to Green had to go somewhere and the Ravens are still missing a big chunk of their secondary), Rex Burkhead (as bad as last week seemed, he still managed a flex floor and Hill could still miss entirely), Steve Smith (the Bengals aren’t a great draw for receivers, but Smith works from the slot enough to have a tangible base of production), Kenneth Dixon (his best weeks have come when Baltimore chases points and involve him out of the backfield and the Bengals allow the 6th most receptions per game to backfields)
New Orleans vs. Atlanta
| Saints | Rank | @ | Falcons | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | Spread | -6.5 | ||
| 24.8 | Implied Total | 31.3 | ||
| 68.7 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 62.4 | 26 |
| 63.3 | 13 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.6 | 26 |
| 37.0% | 26 | Rush% | 42.6% | 10 |
| 63.0% | 7 | Pass% | 57.4% | 23 |
| 39.4% | 13 | Opp. Rush % | 35.3% | 3 |
| 60.6% | 20 | Opp. Pass % | 64.7% | 30 |
- Atlanta has scored 30 or more points in 10 games, a franchise record for a single season.
- The 33.5 points per game scored by the Falcons are the 8th highest since 1990.
- The Falcons have scored on 55.5 percent of their possessions, the highest rate since the 2007 Patriots (57 percent).
- Atlanta averages 3.5 offensive touchdowns per game (first) while New Orleans averages 3.4 (second).
- The Falcons have trailed for just 29.7 percent of their offensive snaps (second) while New Orleans has trailed for 51.8 percent (19th).
- Julio Jones played 62 percent of the snaps in his return (70 percent of the passing snaps), a season low for him while active.
- Just 12.6 percent of Julio Jones’ scoring output has come from touchdown receptions, the lowest of all top-12 scoring receivers on the season.
- Since allowing 217 rushing yards in Week 3 to Atlanta, the Saints have allowed 86.3 yards rushing per game since.
- Brandin Cooks (1.81) and Michael Thomas (1.75) rank first and third in points per target for all receivers with 75 or more targets on the season.
- Thomas is the third rookie receiver every to total at least 80 receptions and eight receiving touchdowns in their first season, joining Odell Beckham and Anquan Boldin.
Trust: Matt Ryan (Ryan is having a season just a small step down from the some of the single greatest quarterback seasons we’ve had and the past two non-Jameis Winston quarterbacks to face the Saints have been the QB4 and the QB3), Drew Brees (he has just one scoring week in the top half over the past month, but it’s hard to run away from his ceiling potential against an Atlanta defense that has allowed more passing points than any team outside of Cleveland and the Jets), Brandin Cooks/Michael Thomas (Cooks has sketchy history against Atlanta, but no longer has to contend with Desmond Trufant in this matchup while Thomas is the best combination of floor and touchdown potential of the group)
Bust: Taylor Gabriel (with Jones back and him finally not reaching the paint, his floor is just unusable and he hasn’t topped six targets in any game this season), Willie Snead (he’s reached 50 yards in just two of his past eight games, and scored in just one of his past 12)
Reasonable Return: Julio Jones (he admitted to being cautious with his foot, but still had the opportunity to post a big game in a limited role and the Falcons will be pushed to score points here), Devonta Freeman (he has one week below RB17 over his past eight games), Coby Fleener (he’s been the TE49, TE34 and the TE36 since Josh Hill was lost for the season, but if there was ever a time to cast a blind net it would against the Falcons who have allowed 11 top-12 scorers, including a TE2 week to Fleener in Week 3), Tevin Coleman (I have a hard time weekly with Coleman because he’s so volatile, but the offense has been so good that you just keep using him and take an egg when they come along for the spike weeks)
New York (NFC) vs. Washington
| Giants | Rank | @ | Washington | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spread | -8 | ||
| 18.0 | Implied Total | 26.0 | ||
| 63.3 | 18 | Plays/Gm | 63.7 | 16 |
| 67.2 | 29 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.5 | 25 |
| 37.7% | 24 | Rush% | 38.1% | 22 |
| 62.3% | 9 | Pass% | 61.9% | 11 |
| 37.9% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 39.0% | 10 |
| 62.1% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 61.0% | 23 |
- Washington averages a league-high 41.3 yards per possession while the Giants allow 28.3 yards per drive on defense, fifth in the league.
- Kirk Cousins averages 30.7 passing yards per drive, the most in the league.
- Opponents have converted just 39 percent of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns against the Giants, the lowest rate in the league.
- Washington has converted 45.8 percent of their red zone trips into touchdowns, 28th in the league.
- Since returning from injury in Week 11, DeSean Jackson is the WR7 (16.3 points per game) and third in receiving yardage (555).
- Since their Week 8 bye, the Giants are 28th in yards per possession (26) and 28th in scoring rate per drive (27.1 percent).
- Odell Beckham has accounted for 44.1 percent of the New York receiving yardage the past four weeks after 31.5 percent prior.
REST ALERT: New York is locked into the No. 5 spot in the NFC. It’s hard to see them putting Eli Manning and Odell Beckham at serious risk here.
Trust: Kirk Cousins (this would be a spot to look away from Cousins if all things were expected to be neutral, but New York is fairly banged up on defense already coming in, so they could rest many guys on that side of the ball while Cousins has been a top-12 scorer in nine of his past 10 games)
Bust: Jamison Crowder (New York is vulnerable to slot options, but Crowder had been the odd man out with just 12 targets over the past three weeks and has just 106 receiving yards over the past month), Jordan Reed (New York is in the bottom-10 in receptions and yardage allowed to tight ends but Reed was hardly on the field in each of his previous two games and was very limited on those snaps)
Reasonable Return: Rob Kelley (he has double digit points in three straight and has started to get involved in the pass game a bit, but monitor his injury status throughout the week), DeSean Jackson (he’s also banged up, but has been hot with four 100-yard games since returning), Pierre Garcon (he’s scored 12 or more points in seven of his past eight games), Paul Perkins (his yardage has gone up in three consecutive weeks and he could see an uptick if the Giants choose to shed the split between he and Rashad Jennings if they choose to protect the veteran), Chris Thompson (he’d had just four weeks below RB35 with just two above RB25)
Kansas City vs. San Diego
| Chiefs | Rank | @ | Chargers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | Spread | 4.5 | ||
| 24.8 | Implied Total | 20.3 | ||
| 62.0 | 27 | Plays/Gm | 63.3 | 20 |
| 66.6 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.3 | 21 |
| 41.0% | 14 | Rush% | 39.2% | 19 |
| 59.0% | 19 | Pass% | 60.8% | 14 |
| 41.1% | 18 | Opp. Rush % | 39.3% | 11 |
| 58.9% | 15 | Opp. Pass % | 60.7% | 22 |
- Travis Kelce‘s six 100-yard receiving games have tied a record for the most by a tight end in a season, matching Tony Gonzalez in 2000 and 2004.
- Kelce has accounted for 30.6 percent of the Kansas City receiving yardage, the sixth highest share for any player in the league.
- Tyreek Hill has scored 11 touchdowns in eight different games; both have tied Kansas City records for a rookie set by Billy Jackson in 1981.
- San Diego has rushed for 55 yards per game over the past three weeks after averaging 101.3 rushing yards per game prior.
- Philip Rivers’ scoring finishes when facing the Chiefs over the past three years have been QB27, QB27, QB30, QB20 and QB21.
- Opposing passers have completed just 45.3 percent of their passes against the Chiefs the past three weeks, the lowest rate in the league.
- Antonio Gates averages 5.8 yards per target, ahead of only Lance Kendricks for all tight ends with at least 75 targets on the season.
Trust: Travis Kelce (he’s on fire and has done all of this with just one touchdown since Week 8)
Bust: Alex Smith (San Diego has been rough on passing games, allowing just two top-12 quarterbacks over their past 10 games), Jeremy Maclin (ditto for receiver output as Casey Hayward has eliminated lead options), Tyreek Hill (one last chance for him to burn me here as he doesn’t even have a catch over the past two games, but has been the WR33 and WR25 with two long touchdown runs), Philip Rivers (he hasn’t been a top-12 scorer since Week 5 while having a poor history versus this defense), Antonio Gates (he needs two touchdowns for the record, but will have a hard time getting them against the Chiefs who have allowed one touchdown to a tight end this season), Tyrell Williams/Dontrelle Inman (the Chiefs haven’t allowed a top-30 receiver in any of their past three games as they’ve seemingly fixed their RCB woes)
Reasonable Return: Charcandrick West (the Chiefs can’t run, so there’s little upside here, but if Spencer Ware is out, there’s a soft RB2 floor. Ware would be in the mid-RB2 mix if active), Ronnie Hillman (he’s all that’s left and should fall into flex opportunity)
Oakland vs. Denver
| Raiders | Rank | @ | Broncos | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 19.0 | Implied Total | 21.5 | ||
| 66.5 | 7 | Plays/Gm | 63.5 | 17 |
| 61.3 | 3 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 68.4 | 31 |
| 41.9% | 11 | Rush% | 38.8% | 21 |
| 58.1% | 22 | Pass% | 61.2% | 12 |
| 41.4% | 21 | Opp. Rush % | 45.4% | 29 |
| 58.6% | 12 | Opp. Pass % | 54.6% | 4 |
- Denver has scored on just eight of their 50 possessions over the past four weeks (16 percent), the worst rate in the NFL.
- The Broncos have three offensive touchdowns over that span, the fewest in the league.
- Denver has rushed for a league-low 70 yards per game over the past eight weeks and just 46.3 per game over the past three weeks.
- Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree have combined for 24 receptions on 47 targets for 230 receiving yards with no touchdowns against Denver since the start of last season.
- Denver is allowing 135.2 rushing yards per game (29th) after allowing 83.4 per game in 2015 (first).
- 55.7 percent of the plays run against Denver the past three weeks have been rushing plays, the highest rate in the league over that span.
- Matt McGloin has finished in the top half of quarterback scoring just once in nine career games with 15 or more pass attempts.
Bust: Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree (this was already a tough draw before the injury to Derek Carr), Oakland Running Backs (collectively, I like this unit a lot and they should run it well and often to limit McGloin against a stellar pass defense, but we’re back to a three headed horse as Latavius Murray’s snaps have dropped three weeks in a row while DeAndre Washington is back into the fold), Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders (the last time Paxton Lynch started neither were top-36 scorers and the Denver offense is so anemic right now that I can’t expect anything higher than WR3 weeks from either), Justin Forsett/Devontae Booker (splitting the pie of the league’s worst rushing attack)
Seattle vs. San Francisco
| Seahawks | Rank | @ | 49ers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -9.5 | Spread | 9.5 | ||
| 26.3 | Implied Total | 16.8 | ||
| 63.1 | 22 | Plays/Gm | 62.6 | 25 |
| 64.1 | 19 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 69.1 | 32 |
| 39.9% | 16 | Rush% | 45.5% | 5 |
| 60.1% | 17 | Pass% | 54.5% | 28 |
| 42.6% | 25 | Opp. Rush % | 50.4% | 32 |
| 57.4% | 8 | Opp. Pass % | 49.6% | 1 |
- Seattle has scored just eight touchdowns on the road, tied for the fewest in the league with the Texans.
- The 49ers are allowing a league-high 3.6 touchdowns per game.
- San Francisco allows 4.0 red zone opportunities per game, the most in the league.
- Seattle’s 100.3 rushing yards per game is the lowest they’ve had through 15 games since 2010.
- Jimmy Graham averages 9.8 yards per target, the highest of all tight ends with 75 or more targets on the season and the highest total of his career.
- Graham is second in points per target (1.73) of the same group, trailing only Cameron Brate (1.76).
- Doug Baldwin is the first Seattle receiver to have back to back 1,000 yard seasons since Darrell Jackson in 2003-2004.
- Colin Kaepernick has thrown three touchdowns to nine interceptions in seven career starts versus the Seahawks including the postseason.
Trust: Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham (fire up all of the core skill players here in a game Seattle will be pressing to win against arguably the league’s worst defense)
Bust: Shaun Draughn/DuJuan Harris (Seattle is allowing the fourth fewest yards from scrimmage per game to opposing backfields), Colin Kaepernick (he has 17 or more points in seven of 10 games this season, but hasn’t passed for over 175 yards in his past five games versus Seattle and with the offensive completely bare, I have a hard time seeing him post a high total even with rushing)
Reasonable Return: Alex Collins (we’ve seen San Francisco limit poor rushing attacks off and on with Miami, Arizona and Los Angeles struggling against them so I don’t believe we should expect ceiling output here, but the opportunity will be high for him if Thomas Rawls is out to produce in favorable conditions for a running back. If Rawls is active, he’s still in the mid-RB2 area)
Arizona vs. Los Angeles
| Cardinals | Rank | @ | Rams | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6 | Spread | 6 | ||
| 23.5 | Implied Total | 17.5 | ||
| 67.9 | 2 | Plays/Gm | 60.2 | 31 |
| 64.1 | 18 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.7 | 23 |
| 36.8% | 28 | Rush% | 39.1% | 20 |
| 63.2% | 5 | Pass% | 60.9% | 13 |
| 41.8% | 23 | Opp. Rush % | 41.2% | 19 |
| 58.2% | 10 | Opp. Pass % | 58.8% | 14 |
- Todd Gurley has 13 games with double digit carries while averaging fewer than 4.0 yards per carry, the most in a season since Eddie George in 2001. The NFL record is 14 games set by Edgar Bennett in 1995.
- The Rams average a league-low 23.5 yards per possession while Arizona allows a league-low 26.5 yards per drive.
- Jared Goff averages 13.1 passing yards per drive, the fewest in the league. For comparison, Case Keenum averaged 22.5 passing yards per possession.
- J.J. Nelson leads the Cardinals in targets over the past two weeks with 18 (26.9 percent of the team total) and leads the league in points per snap (.50) over that span.
- Larry Fitzgerald has gone 10 straight games without a touchdown, the longest draught in his career.
- David Johnson‘s eight games with multiple touchdowns are the most by a player in a season since Randy Moss in 2007.
- Los Angeles has allowed 69.3 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks, the second fewest in the league.
Trust: David Johnson (sadly, this is the last time we’ll get to see Johnson for the 2016 season)
Bust: Larry Fitzgerald (he’s only averaged 9.8 points per game over the past five weeks while averaging 49 yards per game over the past six weeks and has had no touchdown upside), Jermaine Gresham (it was an abbreviated ride, but Gresham has had his scoring decrease in four straight games), Todd Gurley (as the Arizona defense has faltered down the stretch, they’ve remained stout against the run, allowing just three top-20 scorers over their past seven games)
Reasonable Return: J.J. Nelson (he’s scored in four straight games and will get the best individual matchup on the outside versus E.J. Gaines), Carson Palmer (his up and down season comes to an end with one last strong matchup as the Rams have allowed four top-6 scoring quarterbacks over their past five games)
Green Bay vs. Detroit
| Packers | Rank | @ | Lions | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | Spread | 3.5 | ||
| 25.0 | Implied Total | 21.5 | ||
| 63.9 | 13 | Plays/Gm | 61.1 | 28 |
| 61.5 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.5 | 2 |
| 35.8% | 30 | Rush% | 35.9% | 29 |
| 64.2% | 3 | Pass% | 64.1% | 4 |
| 38.5% | 9 | Opp. Rush % | 40.1% | 16 |
| 61.5% | 24 | Opp. Pass % | 59.9% | 17 |
- Green Bay is tied for the league lead in red zone opportunities per game (4.1).
- Jordy Nelson has tied Sterling Sharpe (1992 and 1994) for the most games in a season with a touchdown reception (11) in Green Bay history.
- Nelson has averaged 9.2 yards per target over the past nine weeks after averaging 6.3 yards per target through six weeks.
- Over his past 10 games Aaron Rodgers has thrown 26 touchdowns to three interceptions and has 50 more fantasy points than the next highest quarterback.
- Rodgers averages 2.26 fantasy points per possession, the most in the league.
- The Packers allow 27.1 passing yards per drive (29th) and 1.64 passing points per drive (29th) to opposing quarterbacks but have faced the 7th fewest possessions on the season.
- Detroit averages the fewest amount of possessions per game at 9.4 and have 10 fewer possessions than the next closest team.
Trust: Aaron Rodgers (he’s the hottest fantasy quarterback by a mile and is facing a defense that has allowed the highest completion rate to opposing passers), Jordy Nelson/Davante Adams (passing should be frequent for the Packers and they’ve funneled their targets down to Nelson and Adams firsthand)
Bust: Randall Cobb/Marvin Jones (two of the biggest fantasy disappoints haven’t had an impact in several weeks)
Reasonable Return: Matthew Stafford (he hasn’t thrown a touchdown since injuring his finger and he’s been the QB17 or lower in six of his past eight games with just nine touchdown passes over that span, but the Packers secondary has been a target all season for fantasy production), Golden Tate (he’s traded ceiling and floor weeks and his floor is steady, scoring 11 or more points in nine of his past 10 games), Eric Ebron (he popped back on the radar last week with 12 targets and the Packers have allowed five top-12 tight ends over their past six games), Ty Montgomery (his usage is far from consistent, but he’s still the only dual threat option on the hottest offense in the league), Theo Riddick (I’m not into players returning from long layoffs, but it won’t take much for Riddick to fall into flex status with how he accrues points)
Context Key:
Trust = Set him in your lineups this week
Bust = Player to underperform season average
Reasonable Return = Baseline Play without Ceiling Expectations
**All Vegas Lines are taken from BetUs Tuesday Evenings
