Red Zone Notebook

We’ve looked at play calling splits in relation to game script and their potential relation to 2016 output and rolled over that thought process in diagnosing fantasy fallout from the direct relationship that the Eagles, 49ers and Chiefs share with their head coaching changes. Continuing that trend, here are a few general notes on 2015 red zone production that were major outliers for individual players and teams.

Beginning at the low end, the now-Los Angeles Rams ran just 84 offensive plays inside the red zone, the 8th lowest mark for any NFL team since 1999. Teams’ average amount of plays run in the red zone over that span is 140, and was 139 plays in 2015. The Rams ran just 40 pass plays in the red zone. In comparison, Blake Bortles threw 51 passes inside the 10-yard line last season.

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The Rams were the 27th team in that gap to run fewer than 100 red zone plays. In the following season, every one of those teams ran more red zone plays the following year, with an average increase of 41 and 7.8 more team touchdowns scored. Only one of those teams went back to back seasons with under 100 red zone snaps -- the expansion Cleveland Browns in 1999 and 2000. No matter how we feel about their personnel and coaching philosophy, the Rams are a good blind faith bet to have more scoring opportunities and more touchdowns than they had in 2015. This is relevant because despite that futility in reaching the scoring zone, Todd Gurley still managed to score 10 touchdowns on the season (with only one of those outside of the red zone).

You might be surprised to find out that the Detroit Lions had a historically effective season scoring in the red zone. Detroit scored a touchdown on 69.4 percent of its red zone possessions, good for the 7th highest mark over the past 13 seasons for teams that reached the red zone at least three times per game. The Lions scored a touchdown on 27.2 percent of their red zone plays, the 5th highest total over that same timeframe. Teams that reached the red zone three or more times per game while scoring on 65 percent or more of those possessions averaged a 58.1 red zone touchdown rate the following season. Teams scoring on 25 percent or more of their red zone plays scored on average 7.7 fewer offensive touchdowns the following year.

That’s not where it ends for Detroit. It would be one thing to say the Lions won’t be as efficient with their short scoring opportunities, but it’s another thing when you realize that they were completely dependent on those short scores in producing their point totals. Out of their 40 touchdowns on the season, 34 came in the red zone. That 85 percent dependency on red zone touchdown production is 16th highest of the past 385 individual seasons in which a team scored 30 or more touchdowns. Of the 15 teams ahead of the Lions, all but two scored fewer red zone touchdowns the following season with an average loss of 7.9 scores.

So, we know that the Lions were reliant on generating short scores to provide their point totals. That’s problematic if Detroit sees any decrease in reaching the red zone, and even if they are able to roll over the same amount of scoring opportunities from a year ago, natural average regression suggests they’ll score five to eight fewer touchdowns in 2016. While a half-touchdown per game loss doesn’t feel like much broken down, a loss of eight scores would move them from a team in the top third in touchdown output into the bottom third.

Detroit only had seven rushing touchdowns on the season, so the primary beneficiary from all of those short touchdowns was Matthew Stafford. He threw 21 passing touchdowns from the 10-yard line and in, tied with Blake Bortles for the league lead. That total is tied for the 10th highest mark in a season since 2000. Stafford averaged just 9.8 yards per touchdown pass, a mark only higher than Matt Hasselbeck (6.6) and Ryan Mallett (6.0) last season. We’ve seen Stafford have an outlier type passing touchdown season before in 2011, but what he did near the goal line last season was extremely over the bar he set for his career prior.

Year	Comp	Att	Comp%	PaTD	TD%
2009	8	18	44.4%	6	33.3%
2010	6	10	60.0%	5	50.0%
2011	21	48	43.8%	19	39.6%
2012	18	46	39.1%	10	21.7%
2013	17	35	48.6%	13	37.1%
2014	16	38	42.1%	12	31.6%
2015	29	38	76.3%	21	55.3%

Now-retired Calvin Johnson accounted for five of those scores, but the main recipient of those targets and touchdowns was Golden Tate. Tate caught 10 of 11 targets there for all six of his touchdowns on the season. His 3.5 yards per touchdown reception was the lowest in the NFL for all wide receivers or tight ends with five or more touchdown receptions. The transition to Jim Bob Cooter draws a lot of credit for both Stafford and Tate, as Tate frequently scored off of rub routes near the goal line. The midseason coaching change made an impact, but that narrative likely masked a major shift in strength in competition. Tate has yet to prove himself as an elite touchdown producer, scoring on more than nine percent of his receptions just once in an NFL season. If any of the short scoring opportunities are compromised as suggested above, he’s going to have to find a way to find the paint on his own merit more often than he’s shown in his career thus far.

On the other end of the spectrum, the 2015 Buffalo Bills completely bypassed the red zone with almost unprecedented regularity compared to their total touchdown output. Just 45.2 percent (19 of 42) of their offensive touchdowns came from reaching the red zone, the second lowest total for any team since 1999.

That in itself helps explain the lowly target totals that Sammy Watkins had near the end zone. Watkins had just seven red zone targets, with just four from the 10-yard and in as he scored eight of his nine touchdowns from 20 yards out or longer.

There’s reason to believe that we see an uptick there, as teams that scored fewer than 55 percent of their touchdowns in the red zone have come back the following season and seen their red zone play totals increased on average 30 percent and their red zone touchdown total increase 46 percent (with a seven percent increase in touchdowns scored overall).

The issue here is that even with another 35 more plays in the red zone, if the Bills maintain a similar rate of 61:39 run-pass ratio in those situations, we’re only looking at another 15 or so pass attempts. Watkins will need to see a noticeable improvement on his 16.3 percent target market share in the red zone to bolster his touchdown totals from strictly being reliant on big plays. But more touchdowns for the Bills offense as whole is a good thing for Watkins, assuming he’s on the field to start the season as he recovers from foot surgery.

Speaking of needing to see an uptick in red zone usage, Amari Cooper was questionably missing from the Oakland Raiders’ plans the closer they got to the goal line. Cooper had just eight red zone targets on the season, trailing both Seth Roberts (10) and Michael Crabtree (13) with zero of those looks coming from inside the 10-yard line out of the 22 targets dished out to Raiders players. Cooper was forced to lean on splash plays as he averaged 34.3 yards per touchdown reception, the 6th highest total for all receivers with five or more scores on the season. It seems odd that the Raiders would continue to freeze out their best offensive player when calling plays to generate touchdowns, but Cooper’s ceiling is in question if that lack of red zone usage rolls over.

A player that was used near the goal line, but was unlucky in scoring touchdowns was Adrian Peterson. Peterson carried 16 times from the five-yard and in (T-3rd) and converted just four of those carries for scores. That 25 percent conversion mark was a career low and nearly half of Peterson’s career mark of 47.4 percent. Despite posting that new career low in touchdown rate, Peterson still managed to score 11 touchdowns on the ground, the eighth time in eight full seasons that he’s scored double digit rushing TDs in his career.

By all accounts, Melvin Gordon’s rookie season went about as poorly as it could. But those looking to buy low on the sophomore in hopes of a major bargain may want to examine how the San Diego Chargers deployed their backfield in the red zone. It wasn’t an accident that Gordon failed to score a touchdown on any of his 217 touches as Danny Woodhead outpaced him in red zone carries 19 to 12 in games both were active, and 8 to 5 inside the 10-yard line.

Woodhead also led the Chargers in targets, catches and touchdowns from the 10 and in for the season. San Diego had injuries to both Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates, but when you go back to Woodhead’s previous full season in 2013, you’ll see this no fluke driven by lack of options. In that season, Woodhead also led the Chargers in all three receiving categories while handling 11 of the 30 red zone rushes by running backs. Known as only a PPR option, Woodhead holds a modest ceiling due to having that expanded role near the goal line and is still a major thorn for Gordon’s scoring outlook.

The dispersal of the New York Jets’ backfield touches is one of the more interesting topics of the summer. The triumvirate of Matt Forte, Bilal Powell and Khiry Robinson could lead to a frustrating dilemma if all three are involved. Especially when we’re talking about who will get the opportunities to score touchdowns on the ground. The Jets ranked 9th in the league in rushing attempts inside the 5-yard last season, so if those opportunities roll over in any proximity, we’ll definitely care who that back is. Saying who it will be today is a much harder endeavor.

Out of all backs to have 50 or more rushing attempts from the 5-yard and in line since 2000, Matt Forte ranks dead last in conversion rate (23.2 percent), scoring just 22 times on 95 carries near the goal line. On a seasonal level, Forte has had just one year in his entire career where he’s converted more than a third of such carries, despite the league average conversion rate on those attempts being 39.2 percent since Forte entered the league. Powell and Robinson obviously have much smaller career samples, but Powell has converted 40 percent (six of 10) while Robinson has scored on six of his 10 attempts from the same area of the field. We expect Forte to lead the team in touches, but if he continues to struggle in those situations or doesn’t even garner that usage, it lowers his ceiling by a large amount.

Since we talked about their backs, we might as well discuss the Jets’ receivers as well since they were pillars of weekly consistency in terms of touchdown production. Both Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker caught touchdown passes in 12 different games, just one off of the NFL record for a season. It was just third time ever that a pair of teammates caught a touchdown in 10 or more different games, joining Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne (2004) and Cris Carter and Randy Moss (1998).

Decker benefited from a career high 17 targets inside the 10-yard line, where he converted eight for touchdowns. His averages over the four previous seasons in that area were 10 targets and 3.5 touchdowns. Although Decker has shown to be a consistent touchdown scorer throughout his career, only two players since 2000 have seen 15 or more targets inside the 10 in back to back seasons and only Jimmy Graham has scored at least seven times from that part of the field in consecutive years.

Marshall’s touchdowns were not overly inflated from a surplus of looks near the paint, as he turned four of his 12 targets inside the 10 into scores after averaging three touchdowns on nine targets in that area of the field over his career prior to 2015. With the Jets expected to have a much harder outlook in 2016 -- which could jeopardize their overall scoring output -- Marshall appears to be the better bet to stave off any major drop off should that become reality.

After attempting just 41 red zone passes as a rookie in 2014, Blake Bortles led the NFL with 96 red zone attempts last season. Jaguars OC Greg Olson has historically been pass heavy with his red zone play calling (58.4 percent over nine seasons), so Jacksonville can remain pass heavy in that area while Bortles’ numbers there still come down. The 2015 Jaguars’ 102 red zone pass plays were nearly 40 more than the 66 pass play average for Olson’s teams in the red zone prior to last season.

Bortles attempted 51 passes from the 10-yard line and in, tied with Aaron Rodgers for the NFL lead in 2015. That tied for 7th with three other quarterbacks for most attempts from inside the 10-yard line since 2000. Those other nine seasons are held by Peyton Manning (2), Tom Brady, Rodgers (2), Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning. Of the duplicates, neither came in back to back seasons. It’s safe to say that Bortles will see fewer opportunities from that close again. 21 of Bortles’ 35 passing touchdowns came from that area of the field a season ago.

Tying right into that probable reduction is the amount of scoring chances that Allen Robinson received. Robinson led the NFL with 18 targets from the 10-yard line and in. Those targets accounted for a league-high 81.8 percent of Robinson’s total red zone targets, which also tied for the 4th highest total in a season since 1999. Robinson’s 10 receiving touchdowns on those targets were tied with 2007 Randy Moss for most in a season over the same period. Of the six other seasons in which a player saw that many targets from the 10-yard line and in, they lost on average 8.8 of those targets the following season with the fewest being a loss of six. Given the unlikelihood that Jacksonville sees so many pass attempts close to the goal line in 2016, it wouldn’t be remotely surprising to see Robinson’s touchdown total fall back to single digits.

I’ve mentioned those targets from the 10-yard line and in quite a bit so far, and there’s a reason for it. A target from the 10 and in has carried a 2.5 times higher success rate in resulting in a touchdown over a pass from the 11-20 over the past five years, yet we continue to treat all red zone targets the same. 46 percent of passing touchdowns over the past five years have come from the 10 and in. When arbitrarily sectioning off the field, the 10-yard is the true red zone for passing sizzle while being arbitrarily lumped in with targets that hold a sub 15 percent conversion rate for scores.

Yard Line	Tgt	TD	TD%
1-5 Yds	2494	1089	43.7%
1-10 Yds	5148	1825	35.5%
11-20 Yds	6095	856	14.0%
21-30 Yds	6989	463	6.6%
31-40 Yds	8429	281	3.3%
41-50 Yds	9832	184	1.9%
51 Yds+	51801	348	0.7%

DeAndre Hopkins led the NFL with 29 red zone targets, but just seven of those came from inside the 10. That 24.1 percent rate of red zone looks ranked third lowest for all players with double digit red zone targets above only Stevie Johnson (two of 10) and Bryan Walters (two of 11). To close this out, here’s a snapshot of the entire field of players with 40 or more targets in 2015 with their red zone usage and from-the-10-and-in usage in relation to their target totals.

Player	TGT	RZ Tgt	TGT%	10 & In	RZ TGT%
A.J. Green	131	19	14.5%	11	57.9%
Adam Humphries	40	5	12.5%	3	60.0%
Albert Wilson	57	6	10.5%	0	0.0%
Allen Hurns	106	15	14.2%	9	60.0%
Allen Robinson	152	22	14.5%	18	81.8%
Alshon Jeffery	94	16	17.0%	4	25.0%
Amari Cooper	130	8	6.2%	0	0.0%
Andre Johnson	77	11	14.3%	7	63.6%
Andrew Hawkins	43	8	18.6%	2	25.0%
Anquan Boldin	111	19	17.1%	6	31.6%
Anthony Fasano	42	7	16.7%	4	57.1%
Antonio Brown	193	24	12.4%	12	50.0%
Antonio Gates	85	13	15.3%	5	38.5%
Ben Watson	110	18	16.4%	5	27.8%
Bilal Powell	63	7	11.1%	0	0.0%
Brandin Cooks	129	10	7.8%	3	30.0%
Brandon Coleman	49	4	8.2%	2	50.0%
Brandon LaFell	74	8	10.8%	2	25.0%
Brandon Marshall	173	25	14.5%	12	48.0%
Brian Hartline	77	13	16.9%	7	53.8%
Bryan Walters	45	11	24.4%	2	18.2%
C.J. Spiller	44	2	4.5%	1	50.0%
Calvin Johnson	149	18	12.1%	9	50.0%
Cecil Shorts	75	8	10.7%	2	25.0%
Charles Clay	77	3	3.9%	2	66.7%
Charles Sims	70	10	14.3%	1	10.0%
Chris Givens	54	2	3.7%	0	0.0%
Chris Hogan	59	7	11.9%	2	28.6%
Chris Thompson	48	9	18.8%	2	22.2%
Clive Walford	50	7	14.0%	2	28.6%
Coby Fleener	84	11	13.1%	4	36.4%
Cole Beasley	75	18	24.0%	8	44.4%
Corey Brown	54	7	13.0%	3	42.9%
Crockett Gillmore	47	8	17.0%	4	50.0%
Danny Amendola	87	11	12.6%	5	45.5%
Danny Woodhead	105	17	16.2%	8	47.1%
Darren McFadden	53	4	7.5%	2	50.0%
Darren Sproles	83	5	6.0%	1	20.0%
Davante Adams	94	13	13.8%	5	38.5%
David Johnson	59	8	13.6%	4	50.0%
DeAndre Hopkins	192	29	15.1%	7	24.1%
DeAngelo Williams	47	5	10.6%	3	60.0%
Delanie Walker	133	16	12.0%	9	56.3%
DeMarco Murray	55	3	5.5%	3	100.0%
Demaryius Thomas	177	20	11.3%	8	40.0%
DeSean Jackson	49	4	8.2%	1	25.0%
DeVante Parker	50	9	18.0%	6	66.7%
Devin Funchess	63	12	19.0%	5	41.7%
Devonta Freeman	97	14	14.4%	4	28.6%
Dexter McCluster	41	2	4.9%	1	50.0%
Dez Bryant	72	13	18.1%	7	53.8%
Dion Lewis	50	5	10.0%	2	40.0%
Donte Moncrief	105	12	11.4%	5	41.7%
Dontrelle Inman	63	6	9.5%	4	66.7%
Dorial Green-Beckham	66	9	13.6%	5	55.6%
Doug Baldwin	103	17	16.5%	5	29.4%
Doug Martin	44	5	11.4%	3	60.0%
Duke Johnson	70	8	11.4%	3	37.5%
Dwayne Harris	57	9	15.8%	3	33.3%
Eddie Royal	50	11	22.0%	9	81.8%
Emmanuel Sanders	137	8	5.8%	3	37.5%
Eric Decker	132	29	22.0%	17	58.6%
Eric Ebron	70	8	11.4%	4	50.0%
Frank Gore	58	4	6.9%	3	75.0%
Fred Jackson	41	6	14.6%	2	33.3%
Gary Barnidge	125	24	19.2%	15	62.5%
Giovani Bernard	66	4	6.1%	1	25.0%
Golden Tate	128	17	13.3%	11	64.7%
Greg Olsen	124	19	15.3%	9	47.4%
Harry Douglas	72	7	9.7%	3	42.9%
Heath Miller	81	13	16.0%	9	69.2%
Jacob Tamme	80	8	10.0%	2	25.0%
James Jones	99	16	16.2%	10	62.5%
James Starks	53	10	18.9%	1	10.0%
James White	54	8	14.8%	4	50.0%
Jamison Crowder	78	12	15.4%	8	66.7%
Jared Cook	75	9	12.0%	2	22.2%
Jarius Wright	50	3	6.0%	0	0.0%
Jarvis Landry	166	23	13.9%	16	69.6%
Jason Witten	104	13	12.5%	7	53.8%
Javorius Allen	62	12	19.4%	2	16.7%
Jeremy Butler	44	3	6.8%	0	0.0%
Jeremy Langford	42	8	19.0%	4	50.0%
Jeremy Maclin	124	15	12.1%	4	26.7%
Jermaine Kearse	68	9	13.2%	3	33.3%
Jerricho Cotchery	55	10	18.2%	4	40.0%
Jimmy Graham	74	9	12.2%	4	44.4%
John Brown	101	17	16.8%	5	29.4%
Jordan Cameron	70	14	20.0%	4	28.6%
Jordan Matthews	128	15	11.7%	8	53.3%
Jordan Reed	114	23	20.2%	11	47.8%
Josh Huff	40	5	12.5%	3	60.0%
Julian Edelman	88	17	19.3%	7	41.2%
Julio Jones	203	22	10.8%	12	54.5%
Julius Thomas	81	10	12.3%	7	70.0%
Justin Forsett	41	5	12.2%	2	40.0%
Kamar Aiken	127	10	7.9%	5	50.0%
Keenan Allen	89	7	7.9%	1	14.3%
Kendall Wright	60	7	11.7%	4	57.1%
Kenny Britt	72	4	5.6%	1	25.0%
Kenny Stills	62	7	11.3%	2	28.6%
Kyle Juszczyk	56	10	17.9%	7	70.0%
Kyle Rudolph	73	11	15.1%	8	72.7%
Ladarius Green	63	8	12.7%	1	12.5%
Lamar Miller	57	4	7.0%	3	75.0%
Lance Kendricks	40	2	5.0%	2	100.0%
Lance Moore	43	7	16.3%	2	28.6%
Larry Donnell	41	9	22.0%	4	44.4%
Larry Fitzgerald	146	18	12.3%	12	66.7%
Latavius Murray	53	1	1.9%	0	0.0%
Leonard Hankerson	46	9	19.6%	4	44.4%
LeSean McCoy	50	4	8.0%	3	75.0%
Malcom Floyd	69	4	5.8%	2	50.0%
Mark Ingram	60	6	10.0%	1	16.7%
Markus Wheaton	79	15	19.0%	5	33.3%
Marques Colston	67	8	11.9%	4	50.0%
Marquess Wilson	51	6	11.8%	1	16.7%
Martavis Bryant	92	13	14.1%	9	69.2%
Martellus Bennett	80	9	11.3%	5	55.6%
Marvin Jones	104	12	11.5%	4	33.3%
Matt Forte	58	10	17.2%	7	70.0%
Maxx Williams	48	4	8.3%	3	75.0%
Michael Crabtree	146	13	8.9%	8	61.5%
Michael Floyd	89	10	11.2%	4	40.0%
Mike Evans	148	17	11.5%	8	47.1%
Mike Wallace	72	8	11.1%	4	50.0%
Mohamed Sanu	49	9	18.4%	2	22.2%
Mychal Rivera	47	6	12.8%	1	16.7%
Nate Washington	94	13	13.8%	5	38.5%
Nelson Agholor	44	6	13.6%	1	16.7%
Odell Beckham	158	20	12.7%	7	35.0%
Owen Daniels	77	11	14.3%	4	36.4%
Pierre Garcon	111	16	14.4%	11	68.8%
Quincy Enunwa	46	1	2.2%	0	0.0%
Quinton Patton	57	4	7.0%	1	25.0%
Randall Cobb	129	21	16.3%	14	66.7%
Rashad Jennings	40	1	2.5%	1	100.0%
Richard Rodgers	85	14	16.5%	10	71.4%
Riley Cooper	41	1	2.4%	0	0.0%
Rishard Matthews	61	1	1.6%	1	100.0%
Rob Gronkowski	120	19	15.8%	11	57.9%
Robert Woods	80	7	8.8%	3	42.9%
Roddy White	70	8	11.4%	6	75.0%
Rueben Randle	90	12	13.3%	9	75.0%
Ryan Grant	42	7	16.7%	3	42.9%
Sammy Watkins	95	7	7.4%	4	57.1%
Scott Chandler	42	9	21.4%	6	66.7%
Seth Roberts	55	10	18.2%	3	30.0%
Shane Vereen	81	12	14.8%	5	41.7%
Stefon Diggs	83	8	9.6%	1	12.5%
Steve Johnson	65	10	15.4%	2	20.0%
Steve Smith	73	9	12.3%	3	33.3%
T.J. Yeldon	46	4	8.7%	1	25.0%
T.Y. Hilton	134	16	11.9%	6	37.5%
Tavon Austin	87	10	11.5%	4	40.0%
Taylor Gabriel	48	5	10.4%	2	40.0%
Ted Ginn	97	9	9.3%	3	33.3%
Terrance Williams	93	11	11.8%	6	54.5%
Theo Riddick	99	14	14.1%	5	35.7%
Torrey Smith	62	7	11.3%	1	14.3%
Travis Benjamin	125	15	12.0%	5	33.3%
Travis Kelce	103	12	11.7%	5	41.7%
Tyler Eifert	74	16	21.6%	9	56.3%
Tyler Lockett	69	4	5.8%	1	25.0%
Vance McDonald	46	7	15.2%	3	42.9%
Vernon Davis	58	8	13.8%	4	50.0%
Vincent Jackson	62	13	21.0%	8	61.5%
Will Tye	62	11	17.7%	6	54.5%
Willie Snead	101	8	7.9%	4	50.0%
Zach Ertz	112	9	8.0%	4	44.4%
Zach Miller	46	6	13.0%	3	50.0%