Quarterback
Jameis Winston, Browns (Rostered in 34% of Yahoo leagues)
Winston has dipped below 40 attempts in one start this year. He is tied for a league-high three games attempting 500 air yards. No quarterback has as many games with 450 air yards. Winston is averaging 21.2 fantasy points per game and has finished as a QB1 in 4-of-6 starts. He gets a tough matchup with the Chiefs this week keeping him on the QB1 periphery. After that, a date with the Bengals makes him a locked-in QB1 for the fantasy semifinals.
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Drake Maye, Patriots (13%)
Maye has finished as a top-15 quarterback in 6-of-8 starts this year on the back of otherworldly scrambling efficiency. He leads the league in explosive carries on scrambles. Over the past decade, his mark of 9.5 yards per carry on scrambles ranks sixth among 97 quarterbacks with at least 30 scrambles in a season. His explosive run rate of 41 percent on scrambles ranks third.
Bryce Young, Panthers (6%)
Young didn’t complete his redemption arc with an upset over the Eagles like we had hoped, but he came shockingly close.
Oh my goodness.... incomplete.
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) December 8, 2024
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/jiFzpyWSIE
He posted borderline elite numbers in his previous two games. That wasn’t the case last week, but he didn’t implode versus a stout Philly defense either. Out of 25 quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks, Young finished the week 14th in EPA per play and 18th in CPOE. Young gets a Cowboys defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year (before MNF).
Others receiving votes: Mac Jones and Aaron Rodgers
Running Back
Sincere McCormick, Raiders (15%)
McCormick went from a backup to Ameer Abdullah to a workhorse in three weeks.
McCormick also passed the eye test with a top-10 rushing grade on the week from Pro Football Focus. Among running backs with at least 30 carries, McCormick ranks sixth in yards after contact per carry and 18th in PFF run grade. Even if Alexander Mattison returns for Week 15, McCormick may have played himself into the starting job to close the year.
Patrick Taylor, 49ers (4%)
Kyle Shanahan called Isaac Guerendo’s exit from Week 14 because of a foot injury “precautionary” after the game, though the 49ers have been hilariously unreliable narrators with their injuries this year. Taylor worked in as his backup and saw seven carries for 25 yards and a touchdown. I expected Guerendo to be available for Week 15, but Taylor is worth a flyer on the off chance that Guerendo doesn’t suit up.
Tank Bigsby, Jaguars (46%)
The Jags seemingly threw in the towel on Travis Etienne last week, giving him four carries to Bigsby’s 18. Etienne still saw plenty of snaps, mostly on passing downs, and caught four passes for 50 yards. For fantasy purposes, getting the bulk of the early down work is the best we can hope for with Bigsby, and it’s also all we need. Bigsby leads the league in yards after contact per carry and is fourth in rush yards over expected per attempt.
Tyler Allgeier, Falcons (30%)
Allgeier has at least nine touches in eight games this year and has finished as an RB3 or better six times. He has five carries inside the five-yard line compared to six for Bijan Robinson. Allgeier is nothing more than a touchdown-or-bust RB4, but that role paired with his contingent upside makes him worth holding into the playoffs.
Jerome Ford, Browns (41%)
Ford has out-snapped Nick Chubb in back-to-back games and has 19 carries to Chubb’s 20 in those contests. Chubb has been dreadfully inefficient since returning from his knee injury and the Browns’ pass-crazed approach under Winston has led to more work for Ford. Neither of those things will change during the season’s final month, putting Ford on the RB3/4 border going forward.
Others receiving votes: Isaiah Davis, Kimani Vidal, Kendre Miller, and Blake Corum
Wide Receiver
Jalen McMillan, Bucs (5%)
McMillan got his long-awaited breakout in Week 14. He caught four of his seven looks for 59 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He ran a route on 83 percent of Baker Mayfield’s dropbacks and set a season-high in target share at 27 percent. We know rookies produce more over the second half of the season and no one is standing in McMillan’s way from becoming the Bucs’ No. 2 pass-catcher.
Quentin Johnston, Chargers (40%)
Johnston’s touchdown-fueled production marched onward with Ladd McConkey out in Week 14. He saw a quarter of the team’s targets and was on the receiving end of Justin Herbert’s only throw into the end zone for the second week in a row. Johnston has seen over half of the Chargers’ end zone targets over the past five weeks, meaning his absurd touchdown production isn’t based entirely on luck.
Josh Palmer was the wideout who benefited most from McConkey’s absence. He paced the team with a 32 percent target share and 47 percent of the air yards. The veteran receiver was targeted on over a quarter of his routes. Johnston saw an uptick in targets sans Ladd, but Palmer went from nothing to the team’s top receiver.
Tim Patrick, Lions (1%)
Patrick has a fairly stable role on one of the league’s best offenses and finally cashed in with six grabs for 43 yards and two scores last week. Over the past month, Patrick has run a route on 63 percent of Jared Goff’s dropbacks and has a 14 percent target share. Both numbers would put him in the WR6 ranks at best, but a 27 percent cut of the end zone targets will get him on the WR4/5 border for Week 15.
Ray-Ray McCloud, Falcons (18%)
Kyle Pitts’ involvement in the Atlanta passing attack started falling off around Week 9. From then onward, McCloud has earned 18 percent of the team’s targets. He is averaging 12.1 PPR points per game with four WR3 or better finishes in five contests. If you’re down bad at receiver, McCloud is at least worth a look.
Others receiving votes: Wan’Dale Robinson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Tight End
Juwan Johnson, Saints (10%)
Johnson is tied with Alvin Kamara in target share over the past two weeks. Both players have seen 18 percent of the team’s looks through the air. Johnson pulled in four grabs for 50 yards and a score on Sunday after catching five passes in the previous week. Down to scraps at nearly every position, Johnson should see plenty of targets to close out the year.
Michael Mayer, Raiders (0%)
Speaking of teams down bad at wide receiver, the Raiders rolled out Brock Bowers as a wideout in Week 14 and used Mayer as a traditional tight end. Bowers ran 75 percent of his routes from the slot or out wide while Mayer operated as an inline tight end on 56 percent of his pass play reps. Despite being the backup tight end, Mayer got his route rate up to 71 percent and earned a 27 percent target share. That number won’t hold going forward, but he could push his way up the TE2 ranks if the Raiders continue to deploy him and Bowers this way.
Noah Gray, Chiefs (22%)
Gray has at least four catches in each of his past four games. He also has no more than four catches and has run a route on just 55 percent of the Chiefs’ passing plays. Gray has a modest target share of 14 percent during that stretch. The good news is that, over the past month, PFF has deemed 85 percent of his targets as catchable and Gray has earned 30 percent of the team’s end zone looks. Gray has a good enough floor/ceiling combo to be a mainstay of the TE2 ranks.
Hunter Henry and Zach Ertz
These are, once again, the two tight ends available in over half of all Yahoo league with top-10 marks in target share and air yards share. Both tight ends can are just inside the TE1 border in total points.
Others receiving votes: Daniel Bellinger and Grant Calcaterra
