Silva: 2018 Quarterback Tiers

By
Evan Silva,

By
Evan Silva

Published October 4, 2018 04:04 PM

Tier One: Surefire Difference Makers

http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/3118/Aaron-RodgersAaron Rodgers (QB1) > http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/1163/Tom-BradyTom Brady (QB2) > http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/6491/Cam-Newtonhttp://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/3511/Cam-NewtonCam Newton (QB3) > http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/12151/Deshaun-WatsonDeshaun Watson (QB4)

Overview: Tier-one signal callers are rare difference makers at fantasy’s most-replaceable position. Waiting for the double-digit rounds is optimal in start-one-quarterback leagues, but members of this elite group warrant single-digit reaches as high-floor, high-ceiling scorers. Rodgers has finished as a top-two passer in seven of the last eight seasons in which he’s played at least 15 games and added red-zone maven http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/5842/Jimmy-GrahamJimmy Graham in free agency. Over his last 16 starts, Rodgers has an otherworldly 40:8 TD-to-INT ratio. Brady has been a top-four QB in five of his last seven full years. Cam has been a top-four quarterback in 5-of-7 NFL seasons, and new OC http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/9333/Norv-TurnerNorv Turner sounds open to using Newton’s rushing skills aggressively. Watson is due for some regression, but his ceiling is undeniable. He outscored the quarterback field by an unthinkable six fantasy points per game during six rookie starts despite barely even practicing with his supporting cast. All reports on Watson’s ACL recovery have been glowing.

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Tier Two: Potential Difference Makers

http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/7460/Russell-WilsonRussell Wilson (QB5) > http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/591/Drew-BreesDrew Brees (QB6) > http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/11257/Carson-WentzCarson Wentz (QB7) > http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/9360/Jimmy-GaroppoloJimmy Garoppolo (QB8)

Overview: Tier-two quarterbacks have flashed difference-making upside but have more question marks than first-tier passers. After logging a career-worst 3.8% touchdown rate in 2016, Wilson caught the positive end of variance for a league-best 34 TD passes in 2017. Wilson accounted for 37 of Seattle’s 38 offensive touchdowns, a remarkable feat but one likely to regress toward the mean. http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/6825/Doug-BaldwinDoug Baldwin’s knee injury was my deciding factor to drop Wilson out of tier one. Red-zone machine http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/5842/Jimmy-GrahamJimmy Graham’s exit doesn’t help. Brees’ 2017 was perceived as disappointing, but he led the NFL in yards per attempt (8.1) and set a league record for completion rate (72.0%). Likewise, Brees’ 2017 TD rate of 4.3% should regress toward the mean after his touchdown rate was 5.8% over the previous six years. Wentz is another touchdown rate wizard; his 7.5% clip led the league among qualified passers, but Wentz is coming off two torn knee ligaments and is bound for some efficiency loss. Garoppolo was a magician down the stretch, needing only a month to master http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/9317/Kyle-ShanahanKyle Shanahan’s system and engineer a 5-0 finish with a 67.4% completion rate at 8.8 yards per attempt with brittle Olympian http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/8461/Marquise-GoodwinMarquise Goodwin and FB http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/8548/Kyle-JuszczykKyle Juszczyk as his top-two pass catchers. Even as a late-round quarterback devotee, I’m drafting Jimmy G in the early double-digit rounds.

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Tier Three: Rest of the Every-Week Starters

http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/7486/Kirk-CousinsKirk Cousins (QB9) > http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/5132/Matthew-StaffordMatthew Stafford (QB10) > http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/1181/Ben-RoethlisbergerBen Roethlisberger (QB11) > http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/12142/Pat-MahomesPat Mahomes (QB12) > http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/4637/Matt-RyanMatt Ryan (QB13) > http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/9385/Marcus-MariotaMarcus Mariota (QB14)

Overview: The quarterbacks we’re likelier than not to stick with through thick and thin, regardless of matchups. Cousins will lose volume moving out of Washington, but he is a high-floor option beneath Minnesota’s dome surrounded by http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/10380/Stefon-DiggsStefon Diggs, http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/9054/Adam-ThielenAdam Thielen, and http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/6459/Kyle-RudolphKyle Rudolph on a team that should experience short fields via http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/9294/Mike-ZimmerMike Zimmer’s shutdown defense. Roethlisberger is coming off his most consistent season in years, logging multiple touchdowns and/or 300-plus yards in 13-of-17 games and finishing white hot with a 26:7 TD-to-INT ratio and 319-yard average over his final ten starts. Stafford is a consistent top-ten QB1, and Ryan is due for positive regression after being due for negative regression entering last year. Mahomes has a tough schedule but an exciting arsenal and skill set. Mariota’s health and coaching staff improved, and he offers a rare dual threat to stabilize his fantasy floor and ceiling. Mariota is also a prime positive-regression candidate coming off a career-low 2.9% touchdown rate.

Tier Four: Fringe QB1s/Preferable QB2s

Overview: These passers offer QB1 potential but lack a certain element locking them into higher tiers. Goff exploded for top-12 fantasy results as a sophomore and theoretically should continue his upward trajectory, although it’s fair to wonder if defenses will catch on to the advantages created by first-year coach http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/9332/Sean-McVaySean McVay. Goff, Rivers, and Carr add nothing with their legs, and Rivers’ ceiling is limited by the Chargers’ loss of http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/11299/Hunter-HenryHunter Henry (ACL), who dominated in the red zone. Prescott was last year’s QB1 in Weeks 1-7. He was the QB19 thereafter. http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/11265/Ezekiel-ElliottEzekiel Elliott and LT http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/6441/Tyron-SmithTyron Smith both return healthy and suspension free, improving Prescott’s outlook. Dallas’ league-worst wideout corps is still a big concern. Luck is creeping up my rankings based on positive health reports, although I remain much lower on him than consensus. Even in earlier double-digit rounds of drafts, I simply don’t believe he’s worth the risk at fantasy’s most-replaceable position. Trubisky, Carr, and Winston are super cheap. No quarterback in football’s pass catchers and coaching staff improved more than Trubisky’s this offseason. Carr is due for positive-touchdown regression after an injury-ruined 2017. Winston is undraftable in standard re-draft leagues, but he offers considerable upside for a pre-Week 4 waiver-wire pickup and best-ball pick.

Tier Five: Two-Quarterback-League Starters

http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/1657/Eli-ManningEli Manning (QB23) > http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/7696/Case-KeenumCase Keenum (QB24) > http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/9320/Blake-BortlesBlake Bortles (QB25) > http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/6493/Andy-DaltonAndy Dalton (QB26) > http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/7417/Ryan-TannehillRyan Tannehill (QB27) > http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/6509/Tyrod-TaylorTyrod Taylor (QB28) > http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/4677/Joe-FlaccoJoe Flacco (QB29)

Overview: These signal callers offer appeal in two-quarterback leagues and as in-season streamers against weak defenses. Eli won’t be usable against the Jaguars in Week 1. He may be streamer worthy at Dallas in Week 2. Thereafter, the Giants go to Houston, host the pass-tough Saints, visit Carolina, draw the Eagles, and then head to Atlanta. Manning’s dynamic supporting cast and http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/9479/Pat-ShurmurPat Shurmur’s coaching upgrade should help, but that’s an imposing early-season road. Manning has finished inside the top-ten fantasy quarterbacks just twice in his 14-year career. Keenum downgraded environment and weapons leaving Minnesota, but Denver’s pass catchers are hardly slouches, and his job is secure. Bortles’ pass attempts per-game average rose from 28.0 in the Jaguars’ initial seven 2017 games to 36.3 the rest of the way, and Bortles was fantasy’s overall QB1 in Weeks 12-16. OC http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/9474/Nathaniel-HackettNathaniel Hackett increasingly embraced Bortles as a runner, a major boon to any quarterback’s box-score output. Dalton and Tannehill have job security but low ceilings. Taylor and Flacco both seem likely to start for most of the season at this early stage, but http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/13072/Baker-MayfieldBaker Mayfield and http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/13059/Lamar-JacksonLamar Jackson loom as playing-time threats.

Tier Six: Also On The Radar

Overview: Remaining quarterbacks with a good chance to see the field this season or backups to starters with injury concerns.

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Silva: 2018 Quarterback Tiers