J.K. Dobbins wanted a new contract. What he got instead was his worst nightmare. Not just another season-ending injury … a season-ending injury during his walk year. A season-ending injury that is frankly more like a career-ending injury. And that’s if you don’t already have a torn ACL and lingering knee issues on your résumé, as Dobbins did entering 2023.
Dobbins’ loss opens up what is becoming the massive annual hole in the Ravens’ offense, as the only running back holdovers currently on the 53-man roster are Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. Melvin Gordon will be promoted from the practice squad, while buzzy undrafted rookie Keaton Mitchell is on injured reserve with a shoulder issue.
Between Edwards and Hill, it was Hill who had the more intriguing Week 1. Hill was surprisingly not targeted in the passing game, but he got the call over Edwards for a pair of second half goal-line carries. He converted both, adding upside to what projected as a pass-catching only role in an offense where the quarterback isn’t known for targeting running backs. In fact, Hill received all three of the Ravens’ touches inside the six-yard line following Dobbins’ departure. It’s quite possible that’s a fluke, but it’s also possible the Ravens might want see what Hill can do in real games instead of running it back with Edwards’ strict two-down skill-set.
Not that this is going to be a one-man backfield. In fact, it’s probably not going to be a particularly valuable backfield. Neither Hill nor Edwards profile as RB2s for Week 2 against the Bengals. You have to be aggressive with early-season waiver bids, but Hill and Edwards are not compelling spots to go crazy after the opener.
As for Dobbins, he can be safely dropped in Dynasty leagues and added to the ever-growing list of “what might have been?” running backs. It’s another cruel outcome as a position where justice is scarce and glory is fleeting.
Five Week 1 Storylines
Falcons make Bijan Robinson their latest part-time lottery pick. Or at least it felt that way. Robinson was actually on the field for close to 70 percent of the Falcons’ snaps, but he never got a chance in the red zone as a rusher. Tyler Allgeier handled all four carries inside the 10-yard line, turning them into two scores (link). That number is already 66 percent of the way to Allgeier’s 2022 rushing touchdown total. Infuriating, but in addition to Robinson’s snaps, he also somehow drew a 33 percent target share. Bonkers stuff, even if Desmond Ridder only attempted 18 passes. No one was signing up for “just” 16 total touches when they made Robinson a first-round pick, but the Falcons aren’t going to be dictating pace and tempo every week like they did against the Panthers. There are any number of ways for Robinson to get forced onto the field. In the end, I suspect Week 1 will end up looking more like Robinson’s baseline than a preview of weekly committee hell to come.
Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell both go nuclear for Rams. So it had come to this. With the Rams missing Cooper Kupp, fantasy touts were once again streaming Tyler Higbee in DFS. Nacua and Atwell proved it doesn’t have to be like this. Fifth-round rookie Nacua caught 10-of-15 targets in his NFL debut, while pint-sized deep threat Atwell cleared 100 yards for the first time in his career. Hell, it was the first time he cleared 70 yards. Rams/Seahawks was played at a frenetic pace, something coach Sean McVay might want to dial back for games like this week’s showdown with the 49ers, but the young ball coach proved he can still scheme and design with the best of ‘em even without his All-Pro No. 1 wideout. Nacua and Atwell will both slot into the WR28-36 range for Week 2.
Justin Fields doesn’t look ready for prime time against the Packers. What is “it” for Fields and the Bears? Whatever it is, it sure ain’t this. Fields operated as slowly as ever against the Pack, leading to poor decisions through the air and panicked scrambling on the ground. He wasn’t trusted to throw down the field, and when he did, it was lacking accuracy. If Fields’ scattershot passing doesn’t improve on its 2022 performance, it will make it all the easier for defenses to further clamp down on his rushing threat despite his improved supporting cast. With a murderous slate of @TB, @KC and vs. DEN on tap for the next three weeks, we are going to learn quickly if Week 1 was a one-off or continuation of Fields’ same old passing trends.
The Titans get weird with Derrick Henry’s usage. We knew rookie Tyjae Spears might see more work than the average Henry backup. We didn’t know he was going to out-snap The King in his NFL debut. Spears played every third down, and doubled Henry up in pass routes. You could make an argument to let someone else handle the Titans’ passing downs, but there is no universe where Henry should be getting out-snapped by a rookie playing in their first NFL contest. Considering how poorly the Titans’ passing attack performed in New Orleans, it’s not a trend we expect to hold for Week 2 against the Chargers. It’s too early to call Spears a person of PPR interest, or to drop Henry from his top-five perch.
Bengals’ offense goes all the way off the rails vs. Browns. There is no way to sugarcoat it: Joe Burrow went full Andy Dalton. Not even the Red Rifle ever produced fewer than 90 yards on more than 30 attempts. Burrow got devoured by the blitz, and rather than making the Browns slow down their pass rush with a few well-timed big plays, he just kept getting stomped. There isn’t much to say other than it was somewhat inexplicable, and that Burrow’s style — hold the ball, hope chunk gain follows — will continue to invite added pressure behind his highly average offensive line. The Ravens are another stiff divisional test for Week 2.
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Five More Week 1 Storylines
Kenneth Gainwell stages bloodless coup in Eagles backfield. First there was the Rashaad Penny healthy scratch. Next there was … nothing. No drama. Just Gainwell playing 62 percent of the Eagles’ snaps to D’Andre Swift’s 28. Even when Swift was on the field, he wasn’t allowed to touch the ball. Gainwell out-touched his new backfield mate 18-2. It was every summer fantasy bull session come to reality. This coaching staff has a longstanding addiction to giving Gainwell important snaps and was going to have to be bowled over by players with Penny and Swift’s injury histories to give them real run. Now, did Gainwell do anything to show he should continue to receive such touch dominances? No. That is not his thing. He never will. But in an offense with Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert on hand to provide the splash plays, coach Nick Sirianni might only care about the “little things” in the backfield. Little things — and little gains — are Gainwell’s specialty.
Kenny Pickett becomes 49ers roadkill after perfect preseason. Pickett was Mr. 158.3 during the summer. Sunday was the rudest of reminders that there is a bit of a difference between the Falcons’ second- and third-team defense and Nick Bosa. The Steelers’ entire operation was simply in shambles, only gaining rhythm once forced to go hurry-up. To make matters worse, Diontae Johnson suffered what appeared to be a multi-week hamstring injury. George Pickens made an insane catch, but true to form, it was out of bounds. He was also blanketed by sticky coverage. The man still doesn’t separate. The Steelers’ offense is one summer illusion that didn’t wait long to shatter. Don’t expect the pieces to be put back together in Week 2 against a Browns defense that just forced the worst game of Joe Burrow’s career.
Kyren Williams handles the work that matters in Rams’ backfield. Williams was the Rams’ clear-cut lead back, dominating snaps, touches, routes — you name it — until the Rams went into clock-killing mode with Cam Akers late. Akers responded by leaving more yards on the field than any other back in football this week. “Not for long” has been one of the themes of Sean McVay’s post-Todd Gurley backfields, but so has Cam Akers struggling. This coaching staff loved Williams coming out of college. The 49ers are a daunting Week 2 test, but I will be ranking Williams ahead of Akers.
Zay Flowers has best day of the first-round receivers. The Ravens won 25-9 but didn’t look particularly good doing so. They also lost No. 1 running back J.K. Dobbins. They needed some good news. No. 22 overall pick Flowers provided it. Flowers gobbled up nearly half of Lamar Jackson’s 22 attempts, catching 9-of-10 targets for 78 yards. Not explosive, though Flowers did produce four gains of 17-plus yards. It wasn’t all line of scrimmage loitering. In fact, his statline would have looked much better had his final two grabs not gone for -9 yards. Comfortable working in multiple areas of the field after pop-gun Boston College offenses had to get creative to get Flowers the ball, Week 1 could very much be the beginning of a trend in this rebuilding offense.
Jordan Love has surprisingly strong start without Christian Watson. The QB3 so far on the week, it was no Watson, no problem for Love, who took advantage of some Aaron Jones YAC and poor Bears defense to have by far the best showing of his thus far abbreviated career. Love did attempt just 27 passes in a game the Packers dominated. He also completed fewer than 60 percent of them. This is going to remain a run-based offense, and Love remains an unproven fantasy commodity. We at least have something nice to work off of heading into a stiffer test with an improved Falcons defense. With the QB12-20 streamer range looking highly shaky so far, Love deserves to be in the mix.
Questions
1. How much guaranteed money is left on Daniel Jones’ deal?
2. Was Joe Burrow’s Sunday performance a guerilla marketing campaign for a new hard seltzer brand?
3. Does Kirk Cousins ever tire of this?
Early Waivers Look (Players rostered in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues)
QB: Derek Carr (@CAR), Jordan Love (@ATL), Mac Jones (vs. MIA), Matthew Stafford (vs. SF), Jimmy Garoppolo (@BUF), Sam Howell (@DEN)
RB: Kenneth Gainwell, Kyren Williams, Justice Hill, Jaylen Warren, Gus Edwards, Roschon Johnson, Joshua Kelley, Tyjae Spears, Sean Tucker
WR: Puka Nacua, Jakobi Meyers, Rashid Shaheed, Rashee Rice, Tutu Atwell, Romeo Doubs, Kendrick Bourne, Allen Lazard, Robert Woods
TE: Luke Musgrave, Jake Ferguson, Hunter Henry, Hayden Hurst, Logan Thomas, Zach Ertz
DEF: Giants (@AZ), Browns (@PIT), Packers (@ATL), Chargers (@TEN), Bears (@TB), Colts (@HOU)
Stats of the Week
0.0. That was Tee Higgins, Dallas Goedert and Drake London’s combined points total. Week 1 wasn’t just throwing curveballs, it was burying sliders in the dirt.
Via the good Lord Reebs: “The Raiders were the only team in the league to gain a first down on every offensive possession (that did not end in kneel-downs) in Week 1.”
34 percent. Calvin Ridley’s target share in an offense that was returning its top three target commanders from a season ago, all three of whom drew at least 98 looks. Ridley is just that good.
27. The difference between Joshua Kelley’s previous career high for yardage (64) and his Sunday output (91). Kelley played Austin Ekeler to a snaps standstill and even ran a decent amount of routes. Perhaps there is finally a No. 2 Chargers running back.
Seth Walder on Rachaad White’s continued inefficiency: “Rachaad White recorded *NEGATIVE-38* rush yards over expectation today, per @NextGenStats. Would have been tied for the fourth-worst RYOE game of the entire 2022 season.”
ESPN’s Brady Henderson on the Seahawks: “The 12 yards the Seahawks gained in the second half marked their lowest output in any half since at least 1991 (which is as far back as we have available data on that.”
Awards Section
Week 1 Fantasy All-Pro Team: QB Tua Tagovailoa, RB Aaron Jones, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR Jakobi Meyers, TE Hunter Henry (lol)
Tweet of the Week, from Sam Sherman: Explaining to my wife that I drafted Kupp over McCaffrey for “structural reasons” as she packs the last of her belongings and leaves for her sister’s house.
Quote of the Week, from Ja’Marr Chase: “I’m mad because I called their ass Elves. We just lost to some Elves.”
Triggered Much? Quote of the Week from Falcons coach Arthur Smith on Drake London having zero catches: “Let the fantasy guys worry about that. We’ve got to clean some things up ... We don’t care. Drake London doesn’t care. All we care about is 1-0.” Going to go ahead and guess Drake London cares about having zero catches.
If You Know, You Know Award from @WhiteWheatTweet: Tungsten Arm O’Doyle season incoming for Justin Jefferson.
Latest Chiefs Trade Target Award: D.J. Moore.
