The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
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Lessons Learned
Sometimes, the Stars Just Align
We saw a seemingly uncorrelated, demi-random roster ship the Milly Maker for the second time this season. As we covered the last time this occurred, this is bound to happen at multiple points throughout the season due the high variance associated with the game we play. That does not, however, mean we should be basing our strategy and decision-making processes around a basis that is closer to the lottery than it is to a game of skill. There is a reason we have never seen an optimal roster in the 14-year history of DFS. The odds are ridiculously slim to land an optimal roster, which typically includes a smattering of seemingly random plays that all hit extreme outlier production. That said, every now and then we’re going to see these random rosters that land on the uncorrelated top producers at each position, marching them to the top of the leaderboard in the process.
Scoring is Still Down
It is no secret that scoring is down throughout the league this season, but what is still largely going overlooked is what that means for our theoretical reasoning. Fewer points scored on a given slate results in fewer opportunities for elite fantasy scores to develop, which means a lower likelihood of two things. Firstly, game over-stacks gain increased importance. If a game handily outperforms its game total, or expectation, it becomes more unlikely that another game comes close to matching the fantasy scores from the game that blew up. Secondly, the weight of importance on correlated bring-backs theoretically lessens due to the lower chances of production from both sides of a game. Other variables come into play on the second point, like more spread-out snap rates and opportunities, fewer workhorse running backs, and increased usage of jumbo personnel groupings like 12-personnel. But the fact of the matter remains – we must alter our decision-making processes and theoretical reasoning with the changing dynamics of the NFL game.
Looking Ahead
Lamar Jackson +Isaiah Likely
Lamar Jackson against the zone-heavy Ram in a game expected to be influenced by weather does not sound like a high-upside bet in Week 14, but I would beg to differ. Jackson is the type of quarterback that can account for every touchdown his offense scores, which is likely to go overlooked this week due to the recent run of heavy red zone running back involvement from the Ravens. The Rams have faced the sixth-most quarterback rush attempts this season and allowed the second-most rushing scores to the position through 13 weeks. The cheap-yet-talented backup tight end, Isaiah Likely, provides a solid stacking partner as someone that should see solid red zone usage in the absence of Mark Andrews.
Chris Olave + Adam Thielen
The perception of the Panthers is that they are this elite passing defense, capable of locking down the top receiving option of their opponents. The reality is that they are simply so easy to run on that teams can bias their attack to the ground. Carolina currently faces the second highest opponent rush rate at 48.90 percent but have been torched in recent weeks by teams with a bona fide alpha pass-catcher. Mike Evans went for a massive 7-162-1 line on 12 targets against them in Week 13 after the team fired head coach Frank Reich. Olave has an insane targets per route run rate this season with Jameis Winston under center for the Saints, which appears likely heading into the weekend after Derek Carr suffered a concussion in Week 13. Finally, the soft spot in the Saints defense is over the middle of the field, particularly to opposing slot wide receivers. This mini correlation gives relatively cheap access to the primary skill position players from each offense, in a game environment that is likely to go largely overlooked by the field this weekend.
Justin Fields + DJ Moore + Cole Kmet
An interesting approach to gain exposure to this game environment is through the two primary pass-catchers from Chicago. These two players account for such a massive portion of the pass production from the Bears that the only bet we need to get right is for the scoring to come through the air against a Lions defense that has been solid against opposing rushing attacks. This primary stack is highly likely to go overlooked on the slate and the folks that do get to a Fields double are likely to want to force a bring-back from the Lions. For how consistent Amon-Ra St. Brown has been this season, he still has just two games of 100 yards or more and a touchdown this season. The Lions backfield is split and the only other player to see consistent snap rates over 80 percent is tight end Sam LaPorta, who has just two games all season over 20 DK points. No need to force the bring-back here.
