Try as Sean Payton has to shift the attention of the media and the general public elsewhere, Jarrett Stidham remains storyline No. 1 Sunday in the AFC Championship in Denver.
Ironically, the Broncos were the only NFL team this season that did not have their backup quarterback attempt a pass during the regular season. Sunday in the AFC Championship, snaps will only be taken by not just the backup quarterback for Denver when they face New England, but the snaps will be taken by a quarterback who has not thrown a pass in an NFL game since 2023. With Bo Nix (ankle) sidelined for the rest of the Broncos’ postseason run, Stidham steps under center. Drafted by the Patriots in 2019, the veteran backup has started four games and appeared in 21 (regular and postseason combined) in his career. No question Sunday at Mile High will be the biggest moment of his career.
The stakes are just as high for New England starting quarterback Drake Maye who has all of two playoff starts under his belt. The difference between the two quarterbacks, however, goes well beyond those two, postseason starts. Maye is among the favorites to earn NFL MVP honors this season following a regular season of elite play. With Nix sidelined for Denver, anything short of an appearance in the Super Bowl will now be deemed a failure for Maye and the Patriots.
The primary area of concern for the Broncos is obvious. For the Pats, it may be Drake Maye’s sudden penchant for turnovers. After tossing just eight interceptions during the 17-game regular season, the sophomore signal-caller has tossed two in two playoff games. He has also lost three fumbles. While Denver managed a mere 14 regular season takeaways, Maye will need to better protect the ball if the Pats are to reach another Super Bowl. Against the Bills this past weekend, the Broncos intercepted Josh Allen twice and recovered three fumbles.
These teams have met in the playoffs five times with the Broncos taking four of the five. In the 1986 postseason, Denver won in the Divisional Round, 22-17 with Jake Plummer under center. The Patriots blasted Tim Tebow and the Broncos 45-10 in the 2011 playoffs in New England. Peyton Manning led the Broncos to wins in the most recent meetings between these teams winning in AFC Championship games in the 2013 and the 2015 playoffs.
The Last Time the Patriots Reached the Super Bowl…
Super Bowl 53 in 2019 — New England 13, L.A. Rams 3
The Last Time the Broncos Reached the Super Bowl…
Super Bowl 50 in 2016 — Denver 24, Carolina 10
Lets take a look at the matchup including a few key stats and trends, the quarterbacks, and those listed on the injury report.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Patriots at Broncos live Sunday
- Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
- Time: 3PM EST
- Site: Empower Field at Mile High
- City: Denver, CO
- Network/Streaming: CBS
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Game Odds: Patriots at Broncos
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: New England Patriots (-238), Denver Broncos (+195)
- Spread: Patriots -4.5
- Total: 42.5 points
This game opened at Patriots -4.5 with the Game Total set at 41.5.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Patriots Playoff History
All-Time Playoffs: 39-22
Wild Card Round: 5-6
Divisional Round: 17-6
AFC Championship: 11-4
Super Bowl: 6-5
Pre-1966: 0-1
Broncos Playoff History
All-Time Playoffs: 24-20
Wild Card Round: 2-7
Divisional Round: 11-6
AFC Championship: 8-2
Super Bowl: 3-5
Quarterback Matchup: Patriots at Broncos
- Patriots Starting QB: Drake Maye
Last Game: 1/18 vs. Houston – 16-27, 179yds, 3TDs, 1INT, Sacked 5 times, 4 carries for 10yds rushing
Postseason: 2GP, 33-56, 447yds, 4TDs, 2INTs, Sacked 10 times, 14 carries for 76yds rushing
- Broncos Starting QB: Jarrett Stidham
Last Game: 10/26 vs. Dallas – 0-0, 0yds, 0TDs, 0INTs, Was not Sacked, 1 carry for -1 yds rushing
Postseason: 1/4/2019 vs. Tennessee - 0-0, 0yds, 0TDs, 0INTs, 0 Sacks, 0 carries
Patriots at Broncos: Team Stats and Betting Trends
- New England is 13-5-1 ATS this season
- The OVER has cashed in 12 of the Patriots’ 19 games this season (12-7)
- Denver is 8-9-1 ATS this season
- The OVER has cashed in 8 of the Broncos’ 18 games this season (8-10)
- The Patriots hold the record for most AFC Championship appearances (16) and wins (11)
- The Patriots selected Jarrett Stidham (Auburn) in the fourth round of the 2019 NFL Draft
- Stidham started 2 games in 2022 for the Raiders who at the time were coached by current New England OC Josh McDaniels
- Stidham is 1-3 in four career NFL starts (2 for the Raiders, 2 for the Broncos in 2023) - completing 117 of 197 passes as a pro for 1,422 yards, eight touchdowns, and eight interceptions
- Denver led all NFL teams during the regular season with 68 sacks.
- New England generated 35 sacks during the regular season
- During the regular season opposing teams generated an average of 96.2 rushing yards per game against Denver — the 4th-fewest in the NFL.
- The Broncos have allowed 6 running plays to go for 20+ yards this season
- The Patriots were a perfect 8-0 on the road during the regular season
Patriots Player Injuries
- C Garrett Bradbury (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB Carlton Davis III (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Harold Landry III (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Christian Elliss (hip) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Marte Mapu (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- WR Mack Hollins (abdomen) is eligible to be activated off the IR for Sunday’s game
- DT Joshua Farmer (hamstring) is eligible to be activated off the IR for Sunday’s game
- RB Terrell Jennings (concussion) is eligible to be activated off the IR for Sunday’s game
Broncos Player Injuries
- QB Bo Nix (ankle) has been ruled OUT for Sunday’s game
- WR Troy Franklin (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- WR Pat Bryant (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- C Alex Forsyth (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- RB J.K. Dobbins (foot) is eligible to be activated off the IR for Sunday’s game
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between the Patriots and the Broncos
- Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Patriots on the Moneyline.
- Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Patriots -4.5.
- Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total UNDER 42.5.
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