Although Rory McIlroy gave the South African Open some star power and there were three events held before the Christmas break, it’s this week’s Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship where the European Tour really gets its big 2017 launch.
The field will immediately tell you that. Although Rory withdrew with a back injury on Monday, 2016 Race to Dubai winner Henrik Stenson dusts off his clubs for the first time this year, Masters champ Danny Willett makes the trip to the Middle East while American Ryder Cup pair Dustin Johnson and Rickie Fowler give the event an extra sheen of class and quality.
Fowler is the defending champion after beating Thomas Pieters by a shot 12 months ago, the latter’s big finish helping him make what would be a startling Ryder Cup debut later in the year.
It means American golfers have won the first and most recent editions of the event which started with a win for Chris DiMarco in 2006. The nine winners between DiMarco and Fowler were all Europeans.
Champions, Winning Scores and Stats
2016 -16 Rickie Fowler (DD: 27, DA: 4, GIR: 10, Scr: 10, PA: 16; AA: 1)
2015 -19 Gary Stal (DD: 54, DA: 12, GIR: 13, Scr: 28, PA: 3; AA: 6)
2014 -14 Pablo Larrazabal (DD: 21, DA: 59, GIR: 30, Scr: 4, PA: 8; AA: 7)
2013 -14 Jamie Donaldson (DD: 7, DA: 17, GIR: 6, Scr: 6, PA: 23; AA: 1)
2012 -13 Robert Rock (DD: 11, DA: 37, GIR: 8, Scr: 24, PA: 4; AA: 1)
2011 -24 Martin Kaymer (DD: 7, DA: 7, GIR: 1, Scr: 1, PA: 3; AA: 1)
2010 -21 Martin Kaymer (DD: 18, DA: 33, GIR: 18, Scr: 6, PA: 3; AA: 3)
2009 -21 Paul Casey (DD: 4, DA: 42, GIR: 7, Scr: 19, PA: 12; AA: 3)
2008 -15 Martin Kaymer (DD: 13, DA: 12, GIR: 2, Scr: 27, PA: 7; AA: 1)
2007 -17 Paul Casey (DD: 3, DA: 36, GIR: 2, Scr: 5, PA: 16; AA: 2)
2006 -20 Chris DiMarco (NA)
Notes: To show that all facets are tested, eight of the last 10 winners were ranked in the top three on the All-Around. A pure putting stroke is always rewarded while seven of the above champions were in the top 10 for Greens In Regulation.
The Course
Abu Dhabi Golf Course is certainly scorable despite being long, heavily bunkered and sometimes subject to testing winds. The highest winning score was Robert Rock’s 275 in 2013 when he held off Tiger and Rory. Despite the quality of the field, Fowler’s victory was the first time in five years that a player with previous Ryder Cup experience had triumphed so it’s not necessarily a carve up between the elite. Designed by Peter Harradine, ADGC is always presented in immaculate condition and, although measuring 7,583 yards from the tips, shorter hitters can still do well there. The fairways and rough are Seashore Paspalum and Bermuda 419 while the perfect, true and fast greens are Tifdwarf Bermuda. It closes with a 562-yard par 5 where the iconic Falcon Clubhouse overlooks the 18th green. The 18th tee has been elevated to the left of the old one which could make it a more challenging finale.
The Weather
Sunshine is virtually guaranteed in this part of the world and that’s the case for all four tournament days this week. Temperatures hover either side of the 80 degree mark but, after three days of calm, it could get gusty in Sunday’s final round.
The Leading Contenders
It’s a tournament debut for DJ although he’s always been one of the Americans most willing to travel and his wins include a victory in the WGC-HSBC Champions in China. “I’ve never been there (Abu Dhabi), but I’ve heard really good things about the golf course from Rickie and Rory, who tell me I’m definitely going to like it,” he told europeantour.com. After being crowned PGA Tour Player of the Year in 2016 (his U.S. Open win the highlight), Johnson opened his 2017 campaign with T6 at the SBS Tournament of Champions in Hawaii where he was ranked 1st for Scrambling and 6th for Greens In Regulation. If he takes quickly to these greens, he may be hard to stop.
Last year’s European No.1 has endured a strange run at this event. Despite finishing runner-up in 2006 and 2008, he missed four cuts and didn’t crack the top 20 in his next seven visits. He stopped the rot last year when T3 after opening his bid with a 65 and eventually finishing just two shots behind winner Rickie Fowler. In theory, this course is a great fit for the Open champ but there’s a lot of evidence that it’s counter-balanced by him often coming in here cold and struggling to shake the winter rust off.
Fowler enhanced his reputation as a global golfer with an excellent win here last year, holding off strong challenges from Stenson, McIlroy and Jordan Spieth. That was his second European Tour win following victory in the Scottish Open in 2015. Fowler, who is making his first start of the year, also played here in 2015 but could only manage T66 despite an opening 67. His record when defending titles? MC (2013 Wells Fargo), MC (2016 Players Championship) and T46 (Deutsche Bank). Not good! Note: He didn’t defend 2015 Scottish Open title.
After closing 2016 with four wins in his final 12 starts, Noren will hope the magic didn’t wear off during the Christmas break. Despite finishing runner-up in the Dubai Desert Classic in 2015, this hasn’t been a good event for him. Although a regular (he’s played in nine of the 11 editions), the T11 he posted in 2008 is the Swede’s only finish inside the top 30. Do gamers judge him on that or on the new, improved Noren we saw in the second half of 2016?
For many years, Kaymer was king at Abu Dhabi. He won the event in 2008 (-15), 2010 (-21) and 2011 (-24) and was runner-up in 2009. He also had top six finishes in 2013 and 2015 but the latter comes with a huge asterisk after he suffered what must be one of the biggest hard-to-predict collapses in pro golf when somehow blowing a 10-shot lead in the final round and finishing third. He hasn’t won since so perhaps the scars are deeper than the ice-cool German would have us believe.
Abu Dhabi Golf Course has been the stage for Pieters to show what a fantastic player he could become. He first made us sit up and take notice when T4 in his rookie campaign in 2015 and last year the Belgian finished runner-up by a single shot to Rickie Fowler. Since the first of those, Pieters has won three times on the European Tour and also ended his Ryder Cup debut as the tournament’s leading points scorer. This venue is a perfect fit for his big hitting and smooth putting and the last two editions have shown us he’s a guy who can hit the ground running when the calendar turns to a new year.
Grace should have a competitive edge over just about all his rivals having warmed up with two starts in Hawaii. He opened 2017 with a very rusty 32nd of 32 in the SBS Tournament of Champions but improved to T13 in last week’s Sony Open (67-68-65-67). He deserves respect here on past course form having posted top five finishes in both 2013 and 2016 along with a top 20 in 2015. Watch out for another fast start as he’s opened with 66 in both of the last two years to be third after 18 holes.
After the thunderclap high of his Masters win, Willett’s 2016 rather petered out. The Ryder Cup was a bit of a nightmare on several levels and a bad back hampered him over the closing months. Still, he looks fresh and ready to go this season, his Twitter timeline showing lots of gym shots and him arriving in Abu Dhabi on January 10. Willett won last year’s Dubai Desert Classic so already has a win in the UAE but at this venue his only top 10 came on debut in 2009. He was T19 in 2014 but outside the top 50 in both 2015 and 2016.
Matt Fitzpatrick
The former US Amateur champion scored his biggest win as a pro when capturing the DP World Tour Championship on his last visit to the United Arab Emirates back in November. He’s also finished fourth in that event in 2015 so can certainly thrive on these long desert courses. The English youngster hasn’t quite cracked the code in Abu Dhabi so far but he’s certainly going the right way after following up a missed cut on debut (71-72) in 2015 with T26 (68-71-73-70) last year. Capable of getting very hot with the putter so certainly one to watch out for this week.
The Next Rung
The Austrian is a strong performer in this part of the world and hasn’t finished worse than T26 in his last eight starts in the United Arab Emirates. That includes T6 here in 2015 and a couple of finishes just outside the top 20 in 2013 and 2016. Wiesberger was one of Europe’s hottest players in the last few months of 2016 with six top sevens in seven starts so if his putter works well he’ll be dangerous.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello
The Spaniard loves playing with the sun on his back and his best win came in this region when he landed the 2012 Dubai Desert Classic. A T4 here in 2014 is one of four top 15s in Abu Dhabi so he’ll have earmarked it as a course where he could challenge strongly. Although 2016 was a breakout year in terms of high finishes in big events for RCB, it lacked a win so he does still have trouble getting it done on Sunday.
Pencil him in as another ‘desert specialist’. Including the 2013 Challenge Tour Grand Final, the young Englishman has six top 10s from 10 starts in the United Arab Emirates. That includes T10 and T6 in two of his three starts here in Abu Dhabi. After making the big breakthrough with a convincing victory at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in October, he almost added a second European Tour win at the season-ending DP World Tour Championship in Dubai before being pipped into second by Matt Fitzpatrick.
Byeong-Hun An
The Korean has enjoyed two strong performances in Abu Dhabi with a debut T12 in 2015 when shooting 65-69 on the weekend and T5 last year after 69-68-69-71. It adds to a hugely impressive body of work in the UAE where he’s never finished outside the top 15 in eight starts. Four of those are top fives. An ended 2016 with a top 10 in Turkey and T13 in the DP World Tour Championship so it would be a surprise if you have to scroll too far down the leaderboard to find him.
The desert specialists come thick and fast and Sullivan certainly has to be added to that bunch as a runner-up at both the Dubai Desert Classic (2016) and the DP World Tour Championship (2015). Note though that he hasn’t had his very best stuff over four rounds at this course. He’s 4-for-4 but those finishes read: 22-57-19-68. But, note also that he had a piece of the lead after 36 holes of this event last year.
Luiten’s big moment of 2016 came when he won his home KLM Open for the second time although he ended it in good fashion with a trio of top 15s. But it’s his course form that will get the attention of gamers this week as he’s 5-for-5 in Abu Dhabi and his last three appearances show form of 5-6-6. Last year, he played in the final three-ball with Fowler and Pieters but had to settle for T5 after a closing 72.
Fleetwood has a very questionable record in Abu Dhabi with four missed cuts in five appearances but T19 in 2014 (Friday 65) suggests we shouldn’t write him off. Indeed, gamers may be happy to have him on board on any course right now after he ended 2016 with eight top 15s in 10 starts across a variety of layouts. Most recent was T3 in last month’s Hong Kong Open while before that he’d posted T9 in the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai.
It can be difficult to assess Westwood these days. There are more dips than before but if ever anyone starts writing him off he’ll suddenly come back with a big top five somewhere. He missed the cut here last year after playing the event for the first time since T17 in 2012 but a second place in 2008 and plenty of other good desert form shows that he could make another big impression.
Thorbjorn Olesen
There’s no-one quite like Olesen on the European Tour. He can go through lengthy slumps and yet when he’s on, he wins and wins big. His last two victories – the prestigious Turkish Airlines Open two months ago and 2015’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship – show that as both came on the back of dreadful form. If there is some consistency to be found, it’s in the desert. He’s 5-for-5 in Abui Dhabi with T2 in 2013 and T8 in 2012. He also has top threes in the Dubai Desert Classic and Qatar Masters so it’s a good place to invest in him.
Back-to-back second places in the European Open and Alfred Dunhill Links Championship sparked a strong end to Fisher’s 2016 and T17 in the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai made it five top 25s from six starts. His record at Abu Dhabi Golf Course isn’t the best though with seven of his eight appearances resulting in T31 or worse. A T9 in 2015 (closing 66) suggests he’s still worth a look.
Sleepers
Didn’t make the cut in home South African Open last week but don’t judge him on that as he’s now 0-for-3 at Glendower. Abu Dhabi GC is much more up his street; he has three top 10s and nothing worse than T37 in five visits.
Not the American who will get all the pre-tournament fanfare but he could share some of the limelight with Fowler and Johnson later in the week if his recent upturn in form continues. T14 in Hong Kong last month, T7 in South Africa last week and T4 at halfway here in 2015 before sliding.
The 2016 Asian Order of Merit winner and also a big player at times on the European Tour last season. Hits it a mile, has made both cuts here (T31, T54) and was T8 in last year’s Dubai Desert Classic.
Most remembered for his Ryder Cup heroics but, on an individual level, this was the scene of his finest moment when he powered to victory in 2013. Also T9 on his last appearance in 2015 although he closed out 2016 in terrible form, making just one cut in his final seven starts.
Pablo Larrazabal
Another former winner (2014) and a reliable cut-maker in the Middle East where he enjoys the warm conditions. Kept the engine running with six starts across November and December and posted T8 in Turkey and Hong Kong.
Alejandro Canizares
Enjoyed a hot Desert Swing in 2016 with T5 here and T8 in the Dubai Desert Classic. Also T12 at this venue in 2015 while he took third place in the Nedbank Challenge in South Africa two starts ago. Put the pieces together and he could make a mark.
Thomas Bjorn
Europe’s new Ryder Cup captain has plenty on his plate but he was third here in 2012, T10 in 2014 and T11 in 2016. His 15 European Tour wins also include victories in the Dubai Desert Classic (2001) and Qatar Masters (2011) so despite his lack of competitive golf recently he could cause a surprise.
Struggled after banking a win (Shenzhen International) and T2 (Malaysia) in the first five events of his rookie season but was T8 after 54 holes in Hong Kong last month so could be rounding into form again. This is his tournament debut.
Who’s On The Team?
Rickie Fowler’s poor record when defending is a concern so perhaps Dustin Johnson is the best of the betting leaders after he warmed up with T6 in Hawaii.
Bernd Wiesberger, Tyrrell Hatton, Byeong-Hun An and Joost Luiten also deserve to be considered as strong fantasy material at this venue.
One To Swerve
He was the top dog for the final few months of 2016 but Alex Noren’s average course form here and the feeling that his performances might revert to the mean suggest he could be worth opposing.
