Looking ahead to the new year, a lot of season-long golf leagues are prepping for their drafts.
I’m going to dive into the stats for all the PGA TOUR members and then pluck out the top 150 names to target in drafts. I will list a few key stats and then forecast a rough estimate of earnings in 2020 based on 1-Year Performance, 3-Year Performance, and expected number of starts.
These rankings will be broken up into three segments, so check back throughout the week to see the Top 100 and Top 50 golfers.
1-Year Performance = Strokes Gained per Round during all worldwide events in 2019. Ranking is compared to the Top 200 golfers with any TOUR status. Adjusted for the strength of field each golfer played in.
3-Year Performance = Strokes Gained per Round during all worldwide events since 2017. Recent rounds weighted more heavily. Ranking is compared to the Top 200 golfers with full-time, medical, or conditional status.
Projected 2020 Earnings = An estimate of PGA TOUR earnings during the 2019-20 season, excluding any money collected during the fall schedule.
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#150 Jonas Blixt
2019 SG Rank:
1103-Year SG Rank: 171
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,251,224
Notes: He snuck into the FedExCup Playoffs last year but he’s been dormant all fall. We should assume it’s an injury but nothing big enough to make an announcement. What we like about Blixt is that he’s won three times over the course of his career, he plays a heavy schedule, and his 2019 strokes gained numbers showed a bounce back after a poor 2018.
#149 Richy Werenski
2019 SG Rank:
1473-Year SG Rank: 150
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,262,351
Notes: Turns 28 next week so the best is likely yet to come for Werenski who lost his card by finishing 126th in the FedExCup race last season but got it back quickly during the Korn Ferry Tour Finals. He owns a 53-for-89 career cuts-made record so it’s just a matter of turning some of those top 40s into top 25s.
#148 Chase Seiffert
2019 SG Rank:
1543-Year SG Rank: 148
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,278,795
Notes: The 28-year-old Florida native caught fire this Spring and rattled off seven top 20s in a seven-start stretch down on the Korn Ferry circuit. When you compare his overall body of work with the strength of fields he’s faced, it starts to look like he’ll be hovering around the FedExCup Playoffs bubble come July. If you invest then you are doing so for the youth angle and hopes that his best golf is still over the horizon.
#147 Scott Harrington
2019 SG Rank:
1353-Year SG Rank: 149
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,284,478
Notes: It seemed like a longshot for the 39-year-old rookie to stay hot when he made the leap to the big leagues this fall. That’s exactly what he did, though. Harrington went 6-for-7 with a runner-up finish at the Houston Open. He has a feel-good story in his corner if you want to invest emotionally but the long-term stats make him a big question mark in terms of maintaining his red-hot form.
#146 Joseph Bramlett
2019 SG Rank:
1493-Year SG Rank: 129
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,297,753
Notes: Many (including himself likely) thought his career was over when he sat out 2014 and 2015 to recover from back injuries. He had to tweak his swing but came back stronger with a career-best $163K earned in 2018 on the Korn Ferry Tour and remained steady in 2019. He snuck through the Korn Ferry Tour Finals with a trio of top 30s and then went 3-for-5 during the fall with a T14 at the Greenbrier being the highlight.
#145 Charl Schwartzel
2019 SG Rank:
1593-Year SG Rank: 121
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,298,567
Notes: Shut it down with a wrist injury but returned recently with a T3 at the Alfred Dunhill. It may not be the strongest of fields but still an impressive showing when you consider the long injury layoff. Wrist injuries are no joke but the upside is always there for this Masters champion.
#144 Mackenzie Hughes
2019 SG Rank:
1423-Year SG Rank: 165
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,300,029
Notes: He finished top 40 during his rookie campaign but a sophomore slump saw him land outside the top 150. He rebounded last season with a 15-for-25 record that included six top 25s. That was good for 98th in the FedExCup. If we throw out 2018 then suddenly Hughes is a big value anywhere outside of 100th on the draft board. I don’t think we can throw out that entire year, though, which is why he lands just inside the top 150 for me.
#143 Kristoffer Ventura
2019 SG Rank:
1613-Year SG Rank: 185
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,300,703
Notes: The 24-year-old Norwegian was born in Mexico but has spent most of his golf career in the Nordic countries. His 1-Year and 3-Year SG numbers don’t leap off the page but he’s still so young and won TWICE on the Korn Ferry circuit last season. In just 11 starts, too! He won at 14-under and 16-under which bodes well for his transition to the big stage. He’s not just a birdiefest hunter that can’t hang on a PGA TOUR setup. That being said, he’s still a work in progress as he’s hit fewer greens in the field in every one of his PGA TOUR appearances.
#142 Tyler McCumber
2019 SG Rank:
1553-Year SG Rank: 147
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,301,172
Notes: There is no questioning the pedigree for this 28-year-old from Florida. His father, Mark, was a 10-time TOUR winner. The younger ‘Cumber has tapped into that same winning prowess during his rise up the ranks. He won three times on the Latinoamerica circuit and then won three times in Canada. Translating his Korn Ferry starts suggest he’ll hover around conditional-status territory but all it takes is one good week to pay off his low draft position. Worth the risk, given his history of winning.
#141 Graeme McDowell
2019 SG Rank:
933-Year SG Rank: 90
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,297,753
Notes: The 40-year-old spent his prime years juggling both tours which meant 15 to 17 PGA TOUR starts per season. Fully stationed in Orlando now, he’s committed to 20 events in each of the past two seasons. Currently outside the top 100 in the OWGR, it’s likely that his focus will stay committed to playing primarily in the States. The volume makes him an appealing play anywhere outside of the top 90 but his age makes him less appealing in terms of limited big-season potential. Will likely pay off his salary with one or two stellar weeks and coast to top 50s the rest of the way.
#140 D.J. Trahan
2019 SG Rank:
793-Year SG Rank: 119
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,314,577
Notes: The 38-year-old is a two-time PGA TOUR winner but has played on Past Champions or conditional status since 2013. Finally boosted his status through the Korn Ferry Tour Finals so it will be interesting to see what he can do with a few more starts (and a bit less pressure) in his favor. As you can tell from his 2019 SG Rank (79th), he can still hang with the big boys.
#139 Chris Kirk
2019 SG Rank:
1733-Year SG Rank: 123
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,321,813
Notes: Took some time away from the game to deal with personal issues. Sober for more than six months now, Kirk is back in action and looked just fine in his return, a T33 at the Mayakoba. He missed the cut the next week. One step at a time. Newer gamers may not realize how steady Kirk has been over the years. He finished top 55 in the FedExCup standings for six straight years before finishing 92nd, 66th, 199th the last three. It’s hard to know if we’ll get that same version of Kirk after such a long layoff but it’s worth a shot to draft him anywhere outside of the top 100.
#138 Andrew Landry
2019 SG Rank:
1373-Year SG Rank: 140
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,325,456
Notes: The Texan managed a top-100 spot in the FedExCup standings for the second straight season. It wasn’t the steadiest of rides, though. Only six of his 25 starts were better than T30 finishes. The most notable was a T3 at the John Deere which jumped him from 171st to 121st in the race. Followed that up with a 1-for-7 showing in the fall. Without steady results you are banking on another big finish to get him over the finish line. And if he’s on your bench for that week then you’re really tilting.
#137 Bo Hoag
2019 SG Rank:
1183-Year SG Rank: 142
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,345,654
Notes: Took a step up last year with a 21-for-24 record on the Korn Ferry Tour with 10 of those paychecks doubling as top 25s. It’s a little concerning that he landed just on top 10 but that one was a big win (Win in Portland). He also posted a T11 this fall at the Bermuda Championship which is a good result for anyone at this point in the draft. The Bermuda was a good example of the courses that should suit (short and coastal) because his driving distance has been shorter than the field average in 70% of his rounds played over the fall. A short knocker that is making his first rounds on the big stage.
#136 Martin Kaymer
2019 SG Rank:
593-Year SG Rank: 72
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,362,853
Notes: The German failed to meet the 15-start minimum to maintain a TOUR card but there was an exception made to allow him to keep his card and play on conditional status in 2020. He got the relief because he was first-alternate at Royal Portrush which prevented him from playing the Barbasol. It’s taken some time for him to regain his form after wrist troubles but as you can see from the 2019 Strokes Gained Rank, Kaymer is trending back up. The problem is that his starts will stay around 15 so he’s sitting on your bench a lot throughout the season. If that’s not a problem in your league format then he’s worth a top-80 pick but for most leagues it’s worth waiting until triple digits to even consider an investment. Always brings winning upside any time he pegs it.
#135 Brian Gay
2019 SG Rank:
1243-Year SG Rank: 111
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,370,742
Notes: They say the TOUR is all about power now but don’t tell that to Gay who has made the Playoffs for three straight years now. The 48-year-old finished outside the top 150 in Off-the-Tee and Approach but 80th Around the Green and 37th in Putting. With his four career wins coming at Mayakoba, Heritage, TPC Southwind, and PGA WEST, you know exactly the kind of course that going to suit his game. There is always the risk of attrition at his age.
#134 Henrik Norlander
2019 SG Rank:
1303-Year SG Rank: 122
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,375,911
Notes: Played alongside Patrick Reed in college but hasn’t seen the same success on the PGA TOUR. The Swede finished strong this fall with a T5 at the RSM, the same event where he played his way into a playoff during the 2016-17 edition. He’s one of the most accurate golfers on TOUR but he doesn’t bomb it which makes it tough for him to compete on some tracks. Keep him in mind for weekly leagues when short and accurate is the name of the game.
#133 Kevin Chappell
2019 SG Rank:
1913-Year SG Rank: 102
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,386,779
Notes: The California native sat out most of 2019 with a back injury but returned in a big way, firing a 59 at the Greenbrier this fall. There was still a bit of rust with nothing better than T40 in five starts but as you can see from his 3-Year SG Rank, he’s a Top 100 talent when healthy.
#132 Peter Malnati
2019 SG Rank:
1213-Year SG Rank: 134
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,388,267
Notes: Finished outside the top 100 in driving distance and 179th in driving accuracy. That kind of driving is going to make it hard to consistently make cuts but Malnati overcame that to finish 18-for-26 last season. The most likely scenario is that we find Malnati flirting with the Top-125 bubble come summertime but he is in the prime of his career at 32-year-old so that’s working in his favor.
#131 Stewart Cink
2019 SG Rank:
1393-Year SG Rank: 101
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,400,181
Notes: He’s playing with 5 starts remaining on a Minor Medical but there would be trouble keeping status when you consider he’s racked up $37 Million over his career and made 445 cuts in 584 starts. Picking up Kip Henley as his new bagman, Cink went 3-for-3 during the fall with a T28, T9, and T32 at the Sanderson, Houston, and RSM. His 2019 SG Rank is trending the wrong way but if he’s fully fit and ready to rock in 2020 then he’s worth a pick in this range.
#130 Charley Hoffman
2019 SG Rank:
1283-Year SG Rank: 85
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,403,310
Notes: The 42-year-old did all of his heavy lifting early in the 2019 season before ending with seven straight finishes outside the top 50. He continued his slide during the fall with 4-of-5 finishes landing outside the top 35. The concerning part is that his drop in performance is largely in the ball-striking categories. Even though he’s finished top 80 in the FedExCup race for 13 straight seasons, it might be time to sell before the bottom drops out.
#129 Michael Thompson
2019 SG Rank:
1053-Year SG Rank: 127
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,405,511
Notes: It seems like he’s been around forever but won’t turn 35 until April. Basically a younger version of Brian Gay who I talked about above. He split fairways and then leans heavily on his strong short game. That recipe was good enough for eight top 20s last season. A sub-par fall performance should leave him overlooked which means you can let him slide a little longer and then benefit from the value.
#128 Hank Lebioda
2019 SG Rank:
1363-Year SG Rank: 154
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,407,756
Notes: Hammerin’ Hank was a DFS machine, ranking 21st in birdies per round (4.13) but the top-heavy results just didn’t show up. He went 15-for-23 last season, his rookie year, and turned just three of those into top 25s. Got his card back through the KFT Finals and is already looking more comfortable, his second time through on the big stage. Lebioda went 4-for-7 during the fall with a T3 at the Bermuda Championship being the obvious highlight. His rank is higher than his baseline numbers becasue of his strong hole-by-hole scoring. If he cleans up the rest of his game then we’d be looking at a legit breakout candidate in 2020.
#127 Luke List
2019 SG Rank:
1583-Year SG Rank: 89
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,419,028
Notes: His SG Approach fell from 73rd to 112th last season and SG Around the Green dipped from 15th to 108th! Which version of List will we see in 2020? I tend to lean toward the 1-Year numbers over longer-term stats but the upside is still there for gamers wanting to take a shot.
#126 Kramer Hickok
2019 SG Rank:
1483-Year SG Rank: 135
Projected 2020 Earnings: $1,419,878
Notes: Went 13-for-26 during his rookie campaign then did his heavy lifting during the KFT Finals. The positives are that he finished top 40 in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee and SG Around-the-Green. Anything inside the top 50 off-the-tee which usually result in a lot of cuts made. I would expect a much better showing as a sophomore on the PGA TOUR.
