With the draft a few days away, we are seeing trade talk heat up and some trades have already been consummated, including a minor blockbuster on Friday which saw the Montreal Canadiens and the Arizona Coyotes execute a classic challenge trade, with Alex Galchenyuk going to the desert and Max Domi going to La Belle Province.
Expect to see a few more deals finalized this week, but the floodgates will only truly open up on the draft floor. By all accounts, the top two are pretty settled at this point, but there is a lot of mystery after that slot. The Montreal Canadiens hold the third pick, barring a trade and have been connected at various points to players including Filip Zadina, Evan Bouchard, Noah Dobson, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and Brady Tkachuk, at minimum. And, of course, there is also plenty of speculation that they are trying to trade down 3-5 spots.
A number of other teams are expected to entertain trade offers as well, with Ottawa (will they give the pick to Colorado this year and keep it for next year as some expect the team’s off-ice troubles to extend to the ice next year), Arizona, Chicago, and Edmonton among the teams with rumors being floated about their intentions.
With so much uncertainty about who will even be picking at various spots, the purpose of this exercise is to both shed some light into how teams think about their early draft picks and provide some enlightenment on the players who would make sense in these ranges. As always, this is less a prediction about what will happen than a snapshot of what would make sense if it occurred and why.
For more about the upcoming draft, please head to mckeenshockey.com. Our annual draft guide was published a few weeks ago for all subscribers and profiles on 125 players are included in the offering along with much, much more.
Editor’s Note: Fantasy Baseball season is here! With over 15,000 reviews, DRAFT is the highest rated fantasy sports app. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money fantasy baseball draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here’s the link.
Listen to the Rotoworld Hockey Podcast every week both on Rotoworld and iTunes.
Don’t forget, for everything NHL, check out Rotoworld’s Player News, and follow @Rotoworld_ HK and @RAWagman on Twitter.
Without further ado, the Buffalo Sabres are invited to make the first pick of the 2018 NHL Entry Draft
1. Buffalo Sabres – Rasmus Dahlin, D, Frolunda (SHL)
From the first day of the 2017-18 scouting season, Rasmus Dahlin was the odds-on favorite to be selected first overall in June. The only mystery was which team would have both the misfortune of suffering through a miserable season as well as the fortune of the bouncing balls in the draft lottery. This year, that team is the Buffalo Sabres. The player that Dahlin most reminds me of is Drew Doughty. He is a good skater, but his hands are quicker and more talented than his feet. He has an NHL frame and a significant amount of senior level hockey under his belt already. He is ready to play top four minutes right away, and about one year away from being a first pairing defender.
2. Carolina Hurricanes – Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Barrie (OHL)
After the World Juniors and the CHL Top Prospect Game, Svechnikov, whose older brother Yevgeni may be ready to become a full time NHLer with Detroit, was trailing Filip Zadina in the draft rankings, as the latter was far more impressive at those two high profile events. Thankfully for the Russian born Barrie Colt, there were a few more months of hockey to go before the draft. In the second half of their respective draft years, Svechnikov took his game up a notch, playing with more intensity and more dynamism. The Hurricanes, at one point, were thought to be shopping the pick, but of late have cooled on that possibility and are widely expected to draft the big goal scorer with the second pick.
3. Montreal Canadiens – Brady Tkachuk, C/LW, Boston University (Hockey East)
There is a good to very good chance that this pick is traded on draft day. According to reports from multiple sources at multiple outlets, the Canadiens are hell bent on drafting a center with their first round pick. Failing a center, a defenseman. There is talk about Jesperi Kotkaniemi being the selection here, but that would be a mistake. Both on a persona level and throughout the McKeens organization, there was never any reason to believe that the big Finnish pivot is better than 8th or so in this draft class. He has skills and smarts, but lacks the skating you would want in a first line center. While a trade can end in the any umber of scenarios, Tkachuk, while a left winger, has some experience down the middle, makes some sense in this slot and fits some of what the Habs are seeking.
4. Ottawa Senators – Filip Zadina, RW, Halifax (QMJHL)
Technically, the Senators can give this pick to Colorado, as they have to give the Avalanche either this pick or their first rounder from the 2019 draft, but they are expected to keep this one even though the organization is burning off the ice and seems to be in good position to lead the Jack Hughes sweepstakes. The Canadiens taking Tkachuk works well for them keeping this pick as Zadina was in contention for the top post-Dahlin pick as recently as three months ago. The reason he dropped past Svechnikov, and in this scenario, Tkachuk, was due to seemingly plateauing from that point onwards, while Svechnikov kept getting better and better. Zadina gives the Senators a goal scorer that they simply do not have in their organization.
5. Arizona Coyotes – Evan Bouchard, D, London (OHL)
Even though the Coyotes have locked up Oliver Ekman Larsson for eight more seasons on top of the next one, and they have also been stockpiling defensemen in recent drafts, there is still no one in the system who projects as a top pairing blueliner at his peak. Jakub Chychrun (16th overall, 2016) and Pierre-Olivier Joseph (23rd overall, 2017) are both good and young, but look more like second pairing defenders. This draft, with its strength in the back at this stage, and the Coyotes love of scouting the CHL in general, and the OHL in particular (three OHL picks last year alone) point the way for Evan Bouchard, a natural quarterback for the offense at even strength as well as the man advantage, a natural fit to head to the desert. With three years’ experience already in Major Junior, he is ready for at least a look in the NHL and should be ready for a full time job by the 2019-20 season.
6. Detroit Red Wings- Quinn Hughes, D, Michigan (Big 10)
Born in Florida, raised in Toronto, Hughes has been in the Red Wings’ backyard for the past three seasons, the first two with the USNTDP program in Ann Arbor/Plymouth and last year with the Wolverines in Ann Arbor. It would have been very easy for the Red Wings’ top brass to get look after look at Hughes. And then, to top it off, Hughes was named to the American entry for this year’s World Championships in Denmark – a rare occurrence for the draft eligible player, especially so for a defender – which was coached by Detroit head coach Jeff Blashill. Hughes was excellent at the tournament. Between his skating, puck handing and vision, Hughes would leapfrog players like Dennis Cholowski and Filip Hronek as the best defenseman in the Red Wings’ system and a potential future first pairing player with a little bit more refinement in his own zone.
7. Vancouver Canucks – Noah Dobson, D, Acadie-Bathurst (QMJHL)
The seventh pick is another one that is largely expected to be on the block. On the other hand, the Canucks have openly mused about drafting one of the available blueliners, even with Olli Juolevi progressing well enough in Finland with TPS. With Dobson in tow, the Canucks would now have their projected future first pairing locked up, with Juolevi on the left and Dobson on the right side. Dobson can do a but of everything, big and strong enough to shut down opponents in his own zone and skilled enough to pose a serious threat in the offensive end.
8. Chicago Blackhawks – Oliver Wahlstrom, RW, USNTDP (USHL)
The main separator between Wahlstrom and Svechnikov and Zadina, who should both be long off the board at this stage, is consistency of effort. Wahlstrom has just as much skill, as much speed, as much of a fearful shooting ability, as those other two, but he can disappear for a period or more at a time. The Hawks have a deep history of drafting talent from the USNTDP and have drafted heavily in recent years from the stream of player heading on the NCAA track of development. The Hawks have the luxury of a number of potential options here, including Adam Boqvist and Jesperi Kotkaniemi, among others, but Wahlstrom still seems like the best fit.
9. New York Rangers – Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C, Assat Pori (Liiga)
Sure, the Rangers drafted two forwards in the first round last year who both are listed as centers, but both are also listed as wingers and neither would be the first highly talented amateur center to end up on the wing as a pro. In this scenario, where we cannot project trades, the biggest late riser in the draft, Finnish center Kotkaniemi, is available for the Rangers in their first of three picks, and he is a good enough fit at the spot. He has great hands and an advanced beyond his year hockey mind. And with a July of 2000 birthdate, he has room to grow that most others in the draft class do not have. The Rangers found a gem like that last year in Filip Chytil (September birthday) and can add a very important future forward piece here in Kotkaniemi, who is signed for two more years with Assat.
10. Edmonton Oilers – Adam Boqvist, D, Brynas (SHL)
The last time the Oilers used their first round pick on a prospect from Sweden was in selecting Oscar Klefbom with the 19th pick in 2011. Injury marred last season aside, that has worked out pretty well for Edmonton. Boqvist is the pure antithesis style-wise to Klefbom, so the comparisons can stop there. He is raw and exceptionally talented on the offensive side of the puck. One of the better skaters in this draft class and a special puck handler for a defender. On the other hand, he can be a bit rough off the puck and is well undersized. He may be the furthest away from contributing among all of the projected top 10, but his upside is as high as any of them. The Oilers also lack much in the way of upside at center in the system, and could be persuaded to draft one of Joe Veleno or Barrett Hayton at this spot.
11. New York Islanders – Barrett Hayton, C, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
Regardless of what John Tavares does in the next two weeks, the Islanders have a pretty threadbare system, and are particularly devoid of centers. In fact, the only prospect eligible players in the system who are at least co-listed as centers are Kyle Schempp, John Stevens, and Travis St. Denis. The youngest of that trio is already 24 and only one (Schempp) was even drafted. I don’t typically advocate drafting for need, but Hayton also has a good argument for being the best player available in this scenario. I see him over Veleno as Hayton is more likely to be able to play in any role going forward, and he is five months younger, making him that much more likely to have untapped upside.
12. New York Islanders (from Calgary) – Ty Smith, D, Spokane (WHL)
Although the Islanders lack many players at any level of the organization who shoot from the right hand side, the best available righty shots in this scenario lack Smith’s upside. A sterling offensive defenseman for Spokane in the WHL, he actually plays a strong defensive game that belies his small stature. He uses advanced positioning and stick work to strip opponents of the puck and stellar vision to get it moving the other way again. The former first overall pick of the WHL Bantam Draft would immediately be the most talented defender in the system.
13. Dallas Stars – Isac Lundestrom, C, Lulea (SHL)
I would love to connect the Stars with Joe Veleno, both as he is the top player on my board left and the Stars also need centers in the system, but Dallas almost never drafts out of the QMJHL. To the best of my knowledge, the last Q player they selected was Philippe Desrosiers, in 2013. Instead, I will connect them with Lundestrom, a well rounded pivot from a favorite scouting ground of the Stars’, in Sweden. He has already spent two full seasons playing against men in the SHL and held his own as an underager in the World Juniors this season. His skating, puck skills, and hockey IQ all grade out as very good. He could be ready for the North American game once his current contract with Lulea expires after next season.
14. Philadelphia Flyers (from St. Louis) – Vitali Kravtsov, RW, Traktor Chelyabinsk (KHL)
If there can be said to be a weakness in Philadelphia’s stacked system, it is at right wing. We are also at a point in the draft where the difference between players is razor thin and a draft selection will come down to comfort level as much as talent level. The Flyers are very comfortable drafting Russians, as seen with the first round pick of German Rubtsov in 2016, among others. Like Kotkaniemi above, Kravtsov is one of the late risers in this draft class, with his stock elevated by a lights out performance for his Chelyabinsk squad in the KHL postseason. He has all the tools you hope to see in a future top six winger.
15. Florida Panthers – Joe Veleno, C, Drummondville (QMJHL)
Although the Panthers do not select from the QMJHL often, they have gone there recently enough (Samuel Montembault, 2015) for me to be confident that the circuit is firmly on their radar. Veleno has been in the spotlight for long enough that it is fair to say that he has been nitpicked over the past year. A rough first half with a rebuilding Saint John hurt his draft stock, but he more than made up for it with a stellar run in the stretch drive after being dealt to Drummondville and he was no longer forced to be the main man anymore. He has fantastic wheels and a strong two way game and would fit nicely behind Henrik Borgstrom on the Panthers’ offensive attack within two or three seasons.
16. Colorado Avalanche – Dominik Bokk, RW, Vaxjo (SuperElit)
An extremely talented German national who spent the last season maturing in Sweden, his first in a high level program, Bokk is a few good years away from being ready to contribute as a North American pro, but has very high upside for this portion of the draft. It is gravy that the Avalanche system has only one true right winger in Nick Henry. With the NHL roster skewing young, the Avs can afford to be patient with Bokk, whether he continues his development in Sweden or is coerced into coming to North America to spend next season in the CHL.
17. New Jersey Devils – Joel Farabee, LW, USNTDP (USHL)
Farabee could easily have been selected five or six spots higher, but with the variation in potential after the top ten extremely tight, someone with higher upside is bound to fall and in this scenario, Farabee drops a bit, but stops here. Often playing on the first line with Jack Hughes and Oliver Wahlstrom, Farabee played more of an energy/puck retrieval role on many nights. Even as the third option in that line’s attack, he still put up a very impressive offensive season (40 points sin 2 USHL games) and he may be capable of more in a more central role, as the natural skill set is there. Heading to Boston University, he will have a few years to physically mature and hone his offensive game.
18. Columbus Blue Jackets – Rasmus Sandin, D, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
If the Blue Jackets under GM Jarmo Kekalainen can be said to value two things in draft prospects, they would be hockey IQ and versatility. Sandin, who came to the Soo after already playing in five games in the SHL for Rogle, offers both. He is a strong skater who can add to his team at both ends, supporting an attacking defensive partner, or creating prime scoring chances from the point with a pass or shot. He is equally capable of making the safe, simple play, as he is of providing a moment of razzle-dazzle. As he was on loan with the Greyhounds, he would be eligible to play right in the AHL if the Blue Jackets wanted to go that route with his development.
19. Philadelphia Flyers – K’Andre Miller, D, USNTDP (USHL)
The Flyers don’t need more blueliners in their system, but you can never have too many, can you? Also, they have to use their picks on someone. Miller, who only moved from forward to the blueline a few year ago, is still somewhat raw in terms of his instincts in his own zone, and not everyone likes him. But those who like, love him. He may be the most athletic defender in this draft class, can play physical in his own zone, and plays a very unique – and thus far effective – gam in the offensive end. He could use three seasons at Wisconsin to round out his game, but could be a top pairing defender when all is saind and done.
20. Los Angeles Kings – Serron Neol, RW, Oshawa (OHL)
While he looks like a prototype Kings’ pick from the Lombardi/Sutter era, Noel is much more than a big body. His production did not pop in the regular season with a mediocre Oshawa side, but he made up for it with a fantastic showing at the WU18s for Canada. He can show very soft hands and skates very well for a big man. He needs to be more assertive with the puck to get his game to where his inherent talents suggest it could be. Compared to other recent high end picks of a similar stature, Noel is closer now to where Alex Tuch was in his draft year than to other, similarly styled players such as Nick Richie, or Jordan Greenway.
21. San Jose Sharks – Bode Wilde, D, USNTD (USHL)
The Sharks used their first round pick on a UNSTDP alum last year in Josh Norris, and in this scenario, would do well to go back there again this year. Wilde is an exceptionally smooth skater and puck handler, making him a primary option for lugging the puck up the ice. His draft stock may have been hurt somewhat by a lackluster performance at the WU18s, but his skill set should have him in consideration for any pick from 12 on down. He has the size and strength to be more of a force in his own zone than he is, but does not naturally play an aggressive style.
22. Ottawa Senators (from Pittsburgh) – Jared McIsaac, D, Halifax (QMJHL)
It is a funny little coincidence that the Senators are using both of their first round picks in this mock on Halifax Mooseheads, but the board simply shook out that way. In 2015, they had two first rounders, and selected one forward (Colin White) and one blueliner (Thomas Chabot). With the forward already selected, McIsaac is a reasonable pick in this scenario as the best defenseman on the board, although Calen Addison, Johnny Tychonick, Mattias Samuelsson, and Alexander Alexeyev would also fit. McIsaac can be effective at both ends, with a good physical side and a nice point shot among his best attributes.
23. Anaheim Ducks – Nils Lundkvist, D, Lulea Jr (SuperElit)
Anaheim has drafted only a single defenseman in the last two drafts (Josh Mahura, 2016) and ends to focus solely on Sweden when it comes to European player selection. Lundkvist, named the top defensemen in Sweden’s Junior circuit (SuperElit) despite spending half the season in the SHL, offers high end mobility and mobility to the team that drafts him and packs a greater physical punch than his physical measurements (5-11”, 180) suggest. He is raw, but Anaheim has earned a stellar reputation for developing blueliners, and Lundkvist is worth the gamble at this stage.
24. Minnesota Wild – Martin Kaut, RW, Pardubice (Cze)
The Wild are a mystery heading into the draft this year, as it is new GM Paul Fenton’s first draft as a head honcho. After a fantastic performance for the Czech side at the WJC and a very strong draft year in the Czech men’s league, he could have gone higher than this were it not for a heart condition identified during physical and medical testing at the NHL Draft Combine. The issue is apparently easily resolved and he left the Combine early for medical treatment in his native country, which apparently went well. Kaut already has two years of senior hockey under his belt, and assuming good health, could be only one year away from the NHL. He plays a two-way game, and could fit in on any line as needed.
25. Toronto Maple Leafs – Akil Thomas, C, Niagara (OHL)
With new GM Kyle Dubas’ OHL roots, affinity for skill and faith in analytics, as well as the Maple Leafs’ organization-wide need for talent at center, Akil Thomas seems to check a lot of boxes. A consistent point producer for a middling Niagara team, he is also effective in his own zone and on the penalty kill. His top attributes are his skating ability and his hockey IQ, although some would dock him for sometimes seeming to play with a lack of intensity, but those in the know laud him for his effort. His shot is strong enough that it is reasonable to expect an uptick in goals as his development progresses. They would also be considering Liam Foudy, Ryan McLeod, and Rasmus Kupari in this scenario.
26. New York Rangers (from Boston) – Grigori Denisenko, LW, Loko Yaroslavl (MHL)
Until the late explosion of Vitali Kravtsov in the KHL playoffs, Denisenko was largely considered the top prospect out of Russia for the 2018 draft class. Some disciplinary problems marred what was otherwise a fine draft year, but his skill set still suggests that the Rangers could be hitting a home run in the late first round. Another factor in Denisenko’s favor is that he seems likely to come to North America next year, seemingly a by-product of not being selected to represent Russia at the WU18. At his best, he is an electrifying game breaker.
27. Chicago Blackhawks (from Nashville) – Ryan McLeod, C, Mississauga (OHL)
It is unfortunate, but Ryan McLeod’s draft stock may be suppressed due to the natural comparison between him and his older brother, former New Jersey first round pick Michael McLeod. The two are somewhat similar players, with similar builds and speed games that trend to more two-way production than pure offensive production. As Michael has not progressed as much as hoped since he was drafted, the younger McLeod looks relatively worse by association. Unfortunate the player, in any case. Fortunate for the Blackhawks, who would benefit for a middle six center who can score and contribute in all situations.
28. New York Rangers (from Tampa Bay) – Ryan Merkley, D, Guelph (OHL)
The most controversial player in this draft class, Merkley has sublime puck skills, but suffers from a loud chorus of off-ice concerns. To cite the baseball cliché, Merkley has a million dollar arm and a ten cent head. At least, that is the perception. His puck moving skills are right up there with the defensemen projected for the top ten, but he has often neglected his defensive duties and has been reprimanded by his OHL coaches on numerous occasions. Some teams would not draft him in the seventh round despite his talents, but a team with multiple choices, like the Rangers, with three, can afford to roll the dice. To his credit, he has publicly owned up to his reputation of late, and if he corrects his approach, could be the steal of the draft.
29. St. Louis Blues (from Winnipeg) – Liam Foudy, C, London (OHL)
Last year, with one of their two first round picks, the Blues selected London center Robert Thomas. Thomas is now one of the better prospects outside of the NHL. It is coincidental that Foudy is also a London product, but with the ironic twist that his draft status took off only after the Knights traded Thomas to Hamilton, opening up ice time in the top six for Foudy. To say that the latter took advantage of the changed situation is an understatement as Foudy was one of the best players in the OHL over the second half of the season. He is also an elite athlete and crushed the testing at both the CHL Top Prospect game and the Draft Combine.
30. Detroit Red Wings (from Vegas) – Rasmus Kupari, C, Karpat (Liiga)
We were this close to having the first and last picks of the first round be named Rasmus. That he is still on the board in this scenario is somewhat surprising. Kupari is a high end skater that has offensive ability that he hasn’t yet fully tapped into. Although he produced well enough in Finland’s men’s league as a draft eligible player, he could still leave observers wanting more. If he grows more assertive with the puck, he could be a real offensive threat. As it is, his speed gives him a third line floor.
31. Washington Capitals – Jacob Olofsson, C, Timra (Allsvenskan)
The Stanley Cup Champions generally draft from Europe, or the WHL. There are a number of options from either path in this scenario, but given that the system is light on centers, Olofsson looks like a good fit. An intelligent 200 foot center, he has already experienced success playing with men in Sweden’s second league and has the tools to continue to produce at higher levels in short order. He also has the height and frame to be a handful once he reaches physical maturity. Both his floor and ceiling are in the middle six.
