Greetings, and welcome back for another round of FPL captaincy debate, the most important decision of your gameweek.
Week 23 is finally in the books and, in the minds of the vast majority of FPL managers who are reading this, the collective feeling about the gameweek that we just endured is: “good riddance.”
Week 23 took two things no one enjoys and combined them into one round of misery. For one, the gameweek lasted FOREVER. It has been 17 days since Week 23 began and, for yours truly, it has felt more like 17 years. Now, of course, if the round had produced fantastic results, then the length of time would be much more tolerable. But, FPL decided to make it a slow-burn horror film, not only drawing the round out for a ridiculous amount of time, but yielding the absolute worst average round scores of the entire season and, not counting gameweeks with several blanks, one of the worst rounds in years.
For the average manager, scores were somewhere in the low 30’s, with maybe a clean sheet here or an assist there. Many managers did not register a single goal, assists were hard to come by and it felt like every bonus point was awarded to players no one has on their roster. The only positive spin one can put on a round like this is that it was so bad for so many managers, a 30-something point round, by and large, did not destroy one’s overall rank. I managed to “crush it”, with 41 points, thanks in large part to adding Lucas Digne to my side. It’s not often 41 points will result in a green arrow, but it did for me, moving me a solid 20k spots up the ranks from 140k to 120k.
Obviously, with such poor returns among the league’s highly-owned assets, my captaincy picks in Week 23 did not produce any great results. Fret not though, if a player I recommended did terribly for you, you can bask in the schadenfreude of knowing that I put the armband on Emmanuel Dennis, resulting in a -2 point return. My memory is hazy in my decade-plus experience of playing FPL, but I am pretty sure this is only the second time I have ever given the armband to a player that returned negative points. And I am pretty sure I can say when it happened before, I did not have to spend 17 days staring at that score.
Needless to say, we are all ready to put this ugly, drawn out gameweek behind us and move forward. Surely, there is nowhere to go from here than up. If this coming round is somehow worse for you than the previous one, then please contact me and let me know. I will send you a virtual hug. Otherwise, sit back this week and enjoy what is sure to be a much more enjoyable FPL experience. So let’s waste no time and dive into the top armband choices in this Week 24 edition of Captain Obvious…
Despite having been in fantastic form heading into his last game, I omitted Bowen from the Week 23 armband options based on fixture alone, and it turned out to be the correct decision, as he came up empty in West Ham’s trip to Old Trafford. Manchester United have had an inconsistent season to say the least, but I expected a tight affair between two sides battling for Top Four status, and that is precisely how things went, with the Red Devils squeaking out a 1-0 win.
Now, the Hammers have one of the more attractive fixtures of the season this week, as they play on their home ground against Watford. While the Hornets are already showing signs of improving, particularly defensively, under new manager Roy Hodgson, keeping their first clean sheet of the season just a couple of days ago, keep in mind that result was against a Burnley side whose attack is nowhere near as effective as West Ham’s and the match was another tight affair with no goals for either side, as the Clarets and Hornets were playing each other in a game that had stakes as high as the Manchester United v West Ham game, with the only difference being a fight to avoid relegation rather than a battle to finish in the Top 4.
Bowen has not only been in strong form before his blank at Old Trafford, he has been the clear talisman for the Hammers in recent months. He collected attacking returns in five straight games before the loss to United, and his goal involvement has been prolific. West Ham have scored 13 goals over those five games and Bowen has been involved in eight of them - collecting three goals and five assists along the way. In fact, as Bowen goes, so goes the Hammers. Before the streak of returns in five straight games, Bowen had posted back-to-back blanks and it just so happens that West Ham as a team were held goalless in those two games - a 0-0 draw with Burnley and a 2-0 loss to Arsenal. Go back one more game in which West Ham defeated Chelsea, and Bowen was involved in two of the three goals scored against the Blues, netting a goal and dishing out an assist.
You have to go all the way back to Week 14 to find a game in which West Ham scored and Bowen did not deliver an attacking return. So, the general thinking is, if you expect West Ham to score against Watford (and I do), then it is very reasonable to expect Bowen to play a part in any goals. He did, after all, have a huge game in this reverse fixture, collecting three assists and maximum bonus in a 1-4 win at Vicarage Road in late December.
A couple of other relevant notes regarding Bowen - one increases his appeal while the other may be a little bit concerning. On a positive note, there is some chance that he may be deployed as a striker this week, as Michail Antonio could be rested having been busy away on international duty with Jamaica. In fact, Bowen was the center forward over the weekend in FA Cup action as West Ham barely squeaked past Kidderminster, a club who plays in England’s sixth tier, thanks to a stoppage time equalizing goal by Declan Rice and then a stoppage time in extra time goal by, you guessed it, Jarrod Bowen. His form and goal involvement continues.
The concern for Bowen, however, is that, not only did he start in a cup game that most of West Ham’s regulars were rested for, he had to play the full 120 minutes. While this may be a red flag and possible situation where a player could be rested, returning to action just three days later, the combination of Bowen’s fantastic form and the lack of alternatives, especially if they need him to play as a striker again, leaves me feeling pretty confident that he will indeed start. The concern lies more in the potential of a shortened shift. I would not be surprised in Bowen played a truncated shift of around 70 minutes. The Hammers hit the road again this weekend to play Leicester City and David Moyes may be looking for an opportunity to cut Bowen’s minutes back by yanking him from the Watford game early, provided the Hammers have put themselves in a winning position midway through the second half. Of course, no one will complain provided Bowen does something in his time on the pitch, but an early substitution is never something to be happy about when backing a player with the armband. Sometimes, it can be the difference in losing a bonus point or two.
As he has proven over the years, when Kevin De Bruyne is fit, he is one of the more dependable captaincy options out there and, with the typical unpredictability of Pep Guardiola’s team sheets from game to game, KDB becomes even more attractive as he tends to start every game when form and fitness are at their peak, which is the case for the Belgian international right now.
De Bruyne has been on a run of consecutive starts in league play since Week 17 and has been one of FPL’s highest scoring players ever since that run began. He has registered six attacking returns in the seven games of this run, and while he has a history of being more inclined to dish out assists, he has been wearing his scoring shoes during this stretch, notching four goals to go along with a pair of assists. Of course, we love goals coming from the midfield position. There is only a one point difference for strikers between scoring and assisting, whereas midfielders get that extra point for finding the net. Combine that with Manchester City’s fantastic defensive record, where you can expect a clean sheet point from midfield more than half the time, it only adds to the appeal of backing a player at that position like de Bruyne.
When he is in this kind of form, it is also worth pointing out how inclined he is to be involved in the bonus points. Unlike Bowen for West Ham, in which he is bound to collect bonus for being involved in such a high percentage of his club’s goals, de Bruyne has also been hogging his share of bonus points in recent weeks, despite being involved in a much smaller fraction of his high-scoring side’s goals. Over the last seven games, he has taken home the maximum bonus three times and collected two bonus points in a fourth game. All this while City have put up 22 total goals in those seven games, with KDB playing a part in just six of them, compared to the much higher rate of involvement for Bowen - with eight goal involvements in West Ham’s last 13 goals. This is due to the Belgian’s heavy influence on the match that goes beyond finding the net. He is a stat stuffer and those underlying stats add up to bonus points.
The fixture is very tantalizing indeed for another cluster of City goals, playing at home to a Brentford side that began the season with a pretty solid defensive record but have been struggling in recent months. To be fair, the loss of David Raya between the sticks was a huge blow to Brentford’s defensive prowess, and the shot-stopper is now fit again, having started over the weekend in the FA Cup, his first competitive action since Week 9. Still, one has to be excited about the potential for City to put up a crazy goal tally at The Etihad. Yes, in their last home game, they eked out a narrow 1-0 victory over Chelsea, but if you look at the previous two league games at home against lesser opponents, Leeds United and Leicester City, Manchester City scored seven and six goals, respectively, against those sides, with de Bruyne averaging an 11.5 point return in those two matches. Finally, you have to be excited about KDB’s current roster percentage. Unlike Bowen’s considerable 30% ownership, de Bruyne is on half as many rosters at 15%. The smaller the ownership, the more impact your captain will have in your rank, provided they do the business.
Speaking of lower-owned players with the potential to haul and shoot you up the ranks, we need to talk about Harry Kane, and how he is returning to the kind of form that we had become accustomed to over the course of his career after a miserable start to this campaign. Yes, he is sitting on only five goals in league play this season, but four of those have come in Tottenham’s last six games. At 14% ownership currently, he too can be a major weapon as your captain this week.
For those who only follow league play, it should be of interest that Kane added two more goals over the weekend in Tottenham’s FA Cup win over Brighton and it was a vintage Kane performance. There is not much debate about it. The drama of looking for a move away this past summer and the struggles the club endured under the guidance of former manager Nuno Espirito Santo are now firmly in the past. As Antonio Conte has come in and turned Tottenham’s season around, helping them climb the table and put them in prime position to finish in a top four spot, it is clear that Kane has bought into the new era at Spurs and you cannot help but notice the improvement in his attitude on the pitch.
To go along with Kane’s ever-improving form, along with the club’s overall form, there are two other factors that add to his appeal as an armband candidate in Week 24. For one, it is a solid fixture for Tottenham, as they play at home to Southampton. The Saints are not the worst defensive club in the league - I would say they are not even in the bottom five - but they have struggled to be effective away from home. In their last six league road games, they have conceded at least two goals in all of them, a run that started all the way back in Week 12. And it is not like this has occurred against six clubs that typically score with consistency. In their most recent road loss, they conceded three to Wolves, a side that had managed just one goal or fewer in their previous nine games. The Saints also gave up two goals to Norwich during this stretch, the lowest-scoring side in the entire league, who have netted just 13 times all season.
The other factor in Kane’s favor is the overall fitness of the club, along with some exciting new additions that could provide Spurs a shot in the arm. Most importantly, Heung-Min Son is back in the picture after his recent injury, and he immediately linked up with Kane, assisting one of Sir Harold’s goals in the FA Cup win over Brighton. While some players have the potential to see a drop in production when talented attacking teammates return to action, as the general theory is that the production will be split up somewhat, it has been consistently clear that Son’s presence makes Harry Kane a better, more productive player and vice-versa. The two compliment each other well and we should see more of the same this weekend against the Saints. Spurs also welcome back Cristian Romero to defense and now have new signings Rodrigo Bentancur and Dejan Kulusevski to add to the excitement for Tottenham moving forward. It feels like forever ago, but Antonio Conte’s side will likely have a point to prove after getting shut down by Chelsea in Week 23.
Andrew Robertson/Trent Alexander-Arnold/Diogo Jota/Mo Salah
Right, it is time to suss out the armband prospects among Liverpool’s roster and there are several of them. Let me first get what I feel is the “easy” decision out of the way. Because of the many “ghost teams” in FPL, teams that have been left for dead and unmanaged, having left the armband permanently on Mo Salah, when we see the percentage of captained players this weekend, we should see Salah among those in the top five or so - a misleading statistic. However, if you are active and excited to see FPL’s top scorer return to league play, I do not feel the time is right to give him the armband. The reporting may suggest that he will return from the AFCON tournament fully ready to start against Leicester this week, but I simply think the odds are such where it is not worth the risk. Over the course of four straight AFCON games, culminating in the final they lost to Senegal, Salah logged 120 minutes of pitch time in those four straight games. The chance for a deserved rest for Salah is high in my eyes, especially when you consider that doing so could open the door to give new signing Luiz Diaz a chance to start along with Diogo Jota and Roberto Firmino in Liverpool’s front three. Once Salah and Mane are up to speed again, Diaz may not see too many other opportunities to start, so why not use Salah’s heavy AFCON involvement as a reason to both give him a deserved rest as well as a chance to hand Diaz a full debut.
Once Salah and Mane are back starting, and they have to be considered the two most-nailed on players in the Reds attack, with Roberto Firmino now fit and the addition of Diaz, what used to be a predictable place for Diogo Jota in the XI will soon become a bit of a question mark. However, all of this potential worry is at least one gameweek away, so if you do want to captain an attacking Liverpool player, he is the one that makes the most sense against the Foxes. His production in recent weeks has not been dazzling, no goals and two assists over his last four games, but Jota still finds himself among the leaders in many attacking stats that you want to see in a captain, such as shots in the box. He is, for all intents and purposes, “due”, and again, with a now-crowded crop of talented attacking players, Jota himself has to feel at least some pressure about his future playing time. He will want to prove something in this game, and if he can, he should make those who captain him quite happy.
While defenders traditionally get shunned in the captaincy conversation, there simply are no more excuses to dismiss the likes of Alexander-Arnold and Robertson. For Alexander-Arnold, he has loved delivering the goods at Anfield of late. In his last five home games, he is averaging just under 11 fantasy points per match, with 54 total points over that stretch, a figure even Mo Salah cannot touch. Meanwhile, in the most recent games, Andrew Robertson has been even more lethal, with double-digit returns in his last two starts and a nine-point haul before that against Spurs. Playing at home against a Leicester side who simply are a shell of their usual selves without the presence of Jamie Vardy, along with what has been a horrific defensive record (the Foxes just conceded four goals to Nottingham Forest in their FA Cup loss over the weekend), there is plenty of legitimate reasons to picture the Liverpool fullbacks capable of delivering returns on both sides of the ball. That is the appealing aspect of giving the armband to defenders of their quality - they have two paths to fantasy success instead of just one.
Honorable Mentions
If I am going to give FPL defenders their due, then Joao Cancelo deserves to be in the conversation as well. Playing at home to Brentford gives City the best clean sheet odds of any club this weekend. So, while Cancelo may not be delivering attacking returns of late as consistently as Liverpool’s mighty fullbacks, the City defender is in very good shape to collect points via a clean sheet against the Bees and could be considered “due” for an attacking return. Oh, I failed to mention while discussing de Bruyne earlier, but both KDB and Cancelo were subbed off after about 70 minutes in their FA Cup match, a clear move by Pep Guardiola to preserve who may be argued as his two most important players, and the two he wants to include in his starting XI as often as possible. The early substitutions for both should make FPL managers confident in backing either when the typical worry regarding City players as potential armband options is the fear of a surprise rest. Nothing is guaranteed, but the early removal of both de Bruyne and Cancelo leaves me extremely confident they will be the first names on the team sheet against Brentford.
Despite being yellow-flagged, the expectation is that Bruno Fernandes will indeed be fit and starting for Manchester United, who have an attractive matchup on paper, taking on last-place Burnley. There is also the potential for added appeal in the creative midfielder following the penalty miss by Cristiano Ronaldo in United’s FA Cup loss to Middlesbrough. Fernandes has a solid penalty record and it took a generational legend like Ronaldo to take the duties away, at least for some time. But now that CR7 has missed his last spot kick, one has to think there is at least a chance that Fernandes gets the next opportunity. However, the 1-1 loss on penalty kicks to Championship-side Middlesbrough underscores the problem I have with backing Fernandes. The club is just wildly inconsistent game-to-game, not just lately, but all season long. And even though Burnley are bottom of the table, they can be a tricky side to contend with on their ground. When big clubs go to Turf Moor and are in solid form, they tend to get the job done, but getting a result there can be very difficult for any opponent if their form is spotty, which it definitely is for the Red Devils. On the bright side, United have a double gameweek in the next round, so if you can just wait a few days, you will have a much better situation in which to back Fernandes or, dare I say, Ronaldo, with the armband.
That’s about all I have for Week 24. Finally, we get back to fast and furious action after such a drawn-out Week 23. After having to stare at a -2 return from my Week 23 captain for two full weeks, I can at least rest easy knowing that if I choose a poor captain this round, the pain will last for only a few short days.
Good luck, and may your arrows be green
