Welcome back for another week of FPL captaincy debate. Imagine the horror scenario of giving an armband to a player whose club would score eight goals in a match but that player didn’t get a single return and was not even included in the Starting XI. That was precisely what happened last weekend with Raheem Sterling, and he was the most captained player in the entire FPL game. Now, imagine another scenario: because the match in question was so incredibly lopsided, it created a situation where the player who didn’t start was not needed from off the bench, and the vice-captaincy comes into play, turning a gut-wrenching nightmare into Christmas morning. Well, that too, is precisely what happened.
I have to tell you folks, I understand that an uninformed FPL manager can have a successful gameweek on luck alone. That concept can be applied to just about any game that has some level of chance to go along with skill. But, when the informed manager makes a correct call, only for it to backfire in the end, it’s difficult to chalk it up as simply bad luck. It just feels downright unfair. Let me explain, or more to the point, vent, about what I am referring to for just a moment. You see, I was confident enough that Sterling was a serious risk of not starting against Watford. You can check last week’s edition of this column for evidence. It was the first time this season that I tagged any of the top armband options as a serious risk. So, as a Sterling owner/non-Aguero owner, I decided, for the first time this season, that taking a four point hit was the right move, to take Sterling out and put Aguero in and give the latter the armband in a match that was sure to offer goals galore. What went wrong for me, you ask? Well, had I stayed with the players I had, I would have given de Bruyne the armband. He was my vice-captain in Week 6 with Aguero in tow, so, knowing Sterling was a risk, de Bruyne would have been my captaincy option had I held Sterling. The move I made wound up costing me twelve points. Eight points lost for making Aguero captain instead of de Bruyne plus the four points to bring him in. That, my friends, is how stress-related ulcers are developed.
Right. So there’s my gameweek in a nutshell. I made the right call, I got the wrong result. And for hundreds of thousands of managers, the complete opposite happened. I think I am beginning to understand why my track record in head to head leagues, where captaincy is not a part of the equation, has brought me more consistent success. But, enough said. No need to break out the world’s smallest violin for me. Let’s press forward with some optimism of another shot at everything working out right and take a look at the Week 7 edition of Captain Obvious...
Sergio Agüero (12.2m)
Ownership % - 29.5% (last week, 27.3%)
Season points - 55 (8 Gs, 2 As, 6 BPs)
Opponent - Everton (away)
Of course, Manchester City assets are going to dominate the armband debate once again, coming off an eight-goal thrashing of Watford. Aguero’s influence in the captaincy debate is now reaching full peak. He was the second-most captained option in FPL last weekend, and I would expect him to surpass Sterling as the top option this time around, though de Bruyne having higher ownership than Aguero may see him challenge for that distinction. There isn’t much to say more about his form, he has scored at least one goal in every league game this season. So, the more relevant question is, will his minutes be managed? The answer would appear to be “no”. Aguero was not involved in midweek domestic cup action so he is guaranteed to start against the Toffees. Then there is next midweek to consider, with City’s Champions League obligations. That will be a home game against Dynamo Zagreb and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Pep Guardiola give a start to Gabriel Jesus there, as that should be a very winnable game for them. The only reason to think that Aguero could have his minutes limited is if City explode for four or more goals, put the result away early and Aguero is given time to kick back and relax with an early substitution. But, if that were to happen, he will likely have already returned points for you. So have at it with the Argentine.
With the form he is in and the overall goal-scoring exploits of City, there’s not much to read into the fact that Aguero did not get an attacking return against Everton in either fixture last season. He was an unused substitute in the home game and, at Goodison Park, he came up empty. Let’s remember though, the Toffees late last season became a very strong defense at home. That hasn’t been the case in recent weeks for them, whether home or away.
Raheem Sterling (12.1m)
Ownership % - 39.3 % (last week, 44.7%)
Season points - 39 (5 Gs, 4 BPs)
Opponent - Everton (away)
As a general rule, the last thing you should do with a star City attacking player the week after he is left out of the XI is to sell him. If you held Sterling through Week 6, for heaven’s sakes, do not sell now. He is as guaranteed to start as much as anyone after getting a planned, strategic rest. Sterling did make the midweek XI for the match against Preston, and it took him less than 20 minutes to find the back of the net, so that goal should benefit his confidence as he has experienced a mini-drought in league play. He was also substituted on 73 minutes in that affair, clearly designed to keep his legs ready for the weekend matchup. Yes, he blanked in his previous league start against Norwich, but the stats show he is still heavily involved. He combined for 10 scoring chances against the Canaries, when you add up key passes and shots, the highest total for him in any game this season.
Sterling is another case of not having much to glean from his history with the opponent. Last season against the Toffees, he was kept out of the XI for both matches, coming on as a substitute. In the home game, he still managed a goal in that role. But, let us talk a bit more about Everton as a defense. Through the entire calendar year of 2019 up until and including their home opener this season, they have been elite in keeping the opponent out, enough so to where one might be concerned about using the armband on a player traveling to Goodison Park. But, it would appear that home form, and their defense overall, have hit a rough patch. They have conceded two goals or more in four straight games overall, and to lose 0-2 to Sheffield United in Week 6 should provide all you need to know that they are in bad form right now. So, City options are not up against as tough a fixture as one would have imagined a month ago.
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Kevin De Bruyne (9.9m)
Ownership % - 40.5% (last week, 35.7%)
Season points - 54 (2 G, 7 As, 9 BPs)
Opponent - Everton (away)
Last call to own de Bruyne for less than 10m! Last call to own de Bruyne for less than 10m! Quite the swing in ownership between KdB and his teammate Sterling. This time last week, Sterling was ahead in ownership by nine percentage points. Now, the Belgian midfield maestro has eclipsed the speedy English winger, up over the 40% mark and chasing Mo Salah for the title of most-owned midfielder. FPL usually isn’t too kind in offering up mega-deals when setting prices for players, but boy did they give us a bargain this season. Yes, if you are part of the 60% group of managers that still don’t own him, that should be priority number one. Now the question is, do you give him the armband? Coming off his best round in terms of FPL points, it would be hard to pass up on him. I’ve been beating the drum since the beginning, he is a safe play in terms of having a high floor. But, there is one stat that may at least make you think twice about making him your captain - his home versus away production. City have played three times now at the Etihad and three on the road. Here are KdB’s FPL points in home games (11, 13, 17) and here are his away totals (7, 5, 1). Now there are worse things than having your captain score seven points (x2) or even five (x2), but it would appear that the ceiling is awfully higher for him at home.
As was the case with Aguero, non-league play should have no impact on de Bruyne this weekend. He did not feature against Preston and, while he may start next midweek in the Champions League, he will likely have his minutes managed there more so than against the Toffees. Well, that concludes the cases made for the three main City options. Let’s move on and take a look at those who dare to look for a captain elsewhere...
Mo Salah (12.5m)
Ownership % - 42.2% (last week, 42.1%)
Season points - 50 (4 Gs, 3 As, 7 BPs)
Opponent - Sheffield United (away)
Guess what? Surprise, surprise...it is Liverpool that has an armband option to consider in the form of Mo Salah. As silly as it may sound, he is my differential captaincy option of the week. It is not as if thinking about him as a captain is a crazy idea, he has had an attacking return in all but one game so far this season, and that includes the last four games in a row. But, he hasn’t had one of those explosive, multiple-return games yet. I may be bucking a trend by going against statistics and feeling more from the gut here, but I simply think Salah is due for one of those double-digit returns. His teammate, Sadio Mané has enjoyed a couple of games like that so far this season, and the duo seem to takes turns grabbing the spotlight, but I am basing this on long-term track record, a big game from Salah has got to be on the cards.
Is this a case of picking on a promoted club to bolster my prediction? Not necessarily. Sheffield United are not defensive juggernauts but they do deserve credit for not having a terrible game defensively yet. So far, through six games, they’ve never conceded more than two goals, and that includes a testy trip to Stamford Bridge. Perhaps limiting opponents to two goal or less is worth questioning whether there will be enough goals to guarantee points getting spread around and having involvement from your captain, but Liverpool are on a mission though. They may enjoy a five point edge in the table over City at the moment, but the Citizens have a goal differential edge of six over the Reds. I don’t know, maybe it was that backheel assist from Roberto Firmino that has me feeling goofy, but the aroma in the air has me thinking Liverpool will put up a lopsided result this weekend.
Who’s been left off the shortlist and why...
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (11m)
Ownership % - 23.7% (last week, 22.2%)
Season points - 44 (6 Gs, 1 A, 7 BPs)
Opponent - Manchester United (away)
Aubameyang has gotten plenty of love from me when it seems the FPL universe are sort of “meh” about him. His price never moves! Last weekend was more of the same for the Gabonese international, finding the net for the Gunners and giving him an attacking return in all six games so far this season. So why has he been left off the shortlist? Well, let me be fair and state that it was a close call. He could be in the elite tier, if only just barely, but in the end, I decided that, at this stage of the season, there shouldn’t be a manager in existence that doesn’t own at least one of the three main City options or Mo Salah and it just seems clear to me that those attacks have a higher ceiling than the Gunners and Aubameyang do week-to-week. The opponent this week, Manchester United, are a Jekyll and Hyde side much like Arsenal are. Though the Gunners are currently sitting in the top four, they are sitting on a meager +1 goal difference so far this season, while United, as frustrating as they can be to watch are sitting at a +2. This match could go 0-0, or 3-3, or 0-3 or 3-0, it’s completely wide open in that regard. While United may not seem like a “big club” these days, they technically still are and Aubameyang’s track record is much better when facing clubs not in the “big six”.
Sadio Mané (11.6m)
Ownership % - 21.1% (last week, 21.6%)
Season points - 42 (4 Gs, 1 A, 6 BPs)
Opponent - Sheffield United (away)
Mane blanked last weekend and that is the third time he has done so this season. That is what you get with him, and I’ve mentioned it on multiple occasions in this column already in the first six rounds. Yes, having the armband on Mane when he delivers provides quite the rush. But, if he is blanking half the time, which is the pace is he currently on, while so many other options provide better consistency, it really does call into question the prudence of backing him with the armband. Add in the fact that he’s been injury flagged this week with a dead leg, and it forces me to keep him off the shortlist. I would imagine he is in line to start, but that yellow flag and blank last week would lead me to believe there will be minimal investment in him for captaincy in Week 7, which means that, even if you own him, leave the armband off of him and he has a good return, it is not going to hurt you too bad in your overall rank.
Harry Kane (11m), Heung-Min Son (9.7m)
Ownership % - 20.5% and 8.9%, respectively
Season points - Kane - 28 (4 Gs, 1 A, 5 BPs), Son (2 Gs, 2 As, 3 BPs)
Opponent - Southampton (home)
I feel like my judgement is clouded by being a Tottenham supporter, but this fixture feels more like a trap than anything. Yes, on paper, playing at home to Southampton should be the right environment for Spurs to come away with a comprehensive win, there will be bonus points spread around and the potential to put a lopsided number on the board like they did in the first half against Crystal Palace in Week 5. But, Tottenham are not playing up to what most would consider to be their standards. The Palace result aside, it has been a rocky season indeed, far too inconsistent for me to feel confidence in looking their way for a captain. That said, Kane and Son are still worth mentioning, they haven’t been removed from the equation entirely. The lone goal scored by Spurs last weekend was the result of Son assisting Kane. They could very well link up here against Southampton in Week 7, but it feels like a sword play too early in the season when City assets are just killing it right now. My hope is that one or both of these names will be on the shortlist next week, because that would mean Spurs are looking sharp coming out of this weekend and from Champions League play in midweek.
Tammy Abraham (7.5m)
Ownership % - 32.4%
Season points - 44 (7 Gs, 9 BPs)
Opponent - Brighton (home)
If there is any honorable mention worth being a maverick about this week, for my money, it has got to be Abraham. I just have to toss out his blank against Liverpool last weekend, because, hey, not everyone is going to produce against the top team in the league who have yet to drop a single point. But look at what Abraham has done in his last three prior to the Reds, against much softer opponents - Norwich (13pts), Sheffield United (13pts), Wolves (14pts). You have to think a home game against Brighton is the sort of environment for Abraham to produce in. The one thing I don’t like about him personally is that he never goes 90 minutes. In fact, only once so far this season has he gone so much as 80 minutes. But, had you captained him in Weeks 3-5, you would hardly complain, would you? I am going to go ahead and keep him just outside the shortlist, and I am kicking myself already for it, but at least his inclusion in the column is a sign that he is emerging as a legitimate armband candidate for matchups like this.
Hit me up on Twitter @FuzzyWarbles and let me know your thoughts on who you’ve nominated for captain and why. Good luck with your selection this weekend and may your arrows be green.
