Matthew

Liberatore

Liberatore didn’t give up a hit until his final inning. He walked one and struck out five while generating seven swings and misses before exiting. He finishes the Grapefruit League with a 1.80 ERA, and he whiffed 12 over his final two starts. The former top prospect will be the Opening Day hurler for St. Louis in 2026, and there’s at least a smidgen of fantasy upside in Liberatore’s left arm.

This was always the expected outcome. With Richard Fitts getting demoted, the Cardinals rotation appears set with Dustin May, Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante and Kyle Leahy rounding things out. It’s definitely one of the league’s least exciting groups, but no one projects as an especially big liability and there are interesting arms on the way.

With a lot of lefties in the lineup for Baltimore, Liberatore went to his slider often, and the pitch had a 42 percent swinging strike rate and 63 percent CSW. He also continued to showcase his new changeup, which had just a 14 percent swinging strike rate but looked like a weapon against right-handed hitters. Liberatore also maintained his velocity gains on his cutter and threw 69 percent strikes in this one. Overall, it’s another encouraging effort from a young pitcher who looks poised to take a step forward this season.

Liberatore’s fastball velocity last time out was up one mph from last year. Today, it started in that range, but quickly dropped off, leaving him with a 93.4 mph average that was 0.5 mph under last year’s average. His spin rates were all a bit down as well. Let’s see how he bounces back next time out.

He struck out three and walked one. Liberatore averaged 94.9 mph with his fastball today, up exactly one mph from last year. He offers limited fantasy potential on a St. Louis team that isn’t trying to win, but the Cardinals would love to see him take another step forward in his second full season as a starter.

It was the road split squad, so Liberatore wasn’t facing any regulars today. Still, it’s a nice start to his spring. He’s probably the favorite to start on Opening Day for the Cardinals this year after going 8-12 with a 4.21 ERA in his first season as a full-time starter.

Liberatore qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player. The 26-year-old came in at 8-12 with a 4.21 ERA in his first full season as a starter last year, and the Cardinals should be happy if he’s about as effective this year. He needs to up his 19% strikeout rate if he going to fare much better.

The Cardinals are having Liberatore finish on a high note after he defeated the Brewers on Sunday. Kyle Leahy could get a start in game 162, though that will depend on if he’s needed out of the bullpen first. Liberatore finishes up his first full season as a starter 8-12 with a 4.21 ERA and a 122/40 K/BB in 151 2/3 innings. That he made such big gains in lefty-righty matchups is encouraging, but as a flyball pitcher with a below average strikeout rate, his ceiling still seems rather low.

Liberatore took advantage of a Brewers sitting several regulars today and struck out six for just his second win since the beginning of July. He’s 8-12 with a 4.21 ERA with one start remaining. That’ll come against the Cubs next weekend.

Liberatore allowed four hits, walked one and struck out six while getting through six innings for the first time in 12 starts. A little recovery here in the second half of September could be the difference in whether or not he’s guaranteed a rotation spot entering spring training. He didn’t factor into the decision tonight, so he stays 7-12 with a 4.30 ERA. He’ll likely face the Brewers on Sunday.