This week, the Mariners will host the Astros on Sunday Night Baseball on NBC and Peacock beginning at 7 p.m. ET. And that gives a national audience an opportunity to digest the shocking regression of Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh.
Last year, there was a fierce debate about which player would receive the 2025 American League MVP Award. There was Aaron Judge of the Yankees, having a superlative season while manning right field in 95 games and serving as a DH in 56 others. And there was the Mariners’ Raleigh, slugging 60 home runs while serving as catcher for 121 games and DH-ing in 38 more.
Judge would receive 17 first-place votes, with Raleigh receiving the other 13. Judge won the MVP by a total vote of 355-335. Cal hit 60 home runs, had 125 RBIs, 14 steals, and had an OPS of .948. And then there’s the context, as Raleigh led Seattle to 90 wins and a first-place finish in their division. Remember, the Mariners have finished in first place just four times in their 50-year history.
It took a monster season from Judge (leading the league with 137 runs, 124 walks, a .331/.457/.688 for an OPS of 1.144 to go along with 53 home runs) to narrowly defeat the Mariners’ catcher.
This season, the top-two vote getters in 2025 are having a tough 2026. At least for Judge, the reason is a rib injury that has kept him off the field since May 31.
Cal Raleigh has 371 plate appearances this season and has just 12 home runs! His HR% has gone from 8.5% to 3.2%. His strikeout rate is up—a lot. His walk rate is down. His average exit velocity is down. And his team that finished 18 games above .500 last year is just 57-65 this season, in third place in the AL West.
“It starts with me. I’m awful. It is what it is,” Raleigh said Tuesday night after losing to the Yankees. “I have to find a way to be better and help the guys along. We just have to play better, ultimately. We are playing very bad baseball in every facet of the game. We have to pick it up from the energy standpoint to the execution to help us win games. We are not doing that right now.”
Cal is batting .159 through August 13. Do you know how many players have had 300-plus at-bats in a season with a lower batting average in the last 30 years?
Lowest Batting Average in Season since 1996 (min. 300+ AB)
.139 Bill Bergen, 1909
.159 Cal Raleigh, 2026
.159 Bill Bergen, 1906
.159 Adam Dunn, 2011
.160 Joey Gallo, 2022
If Raleigh gets to 400 at-bats this season, the lowest BA in a season with a minimum of 400 AB looks like this:
Lowest BA in season (min. 400-plus AB)
.159 Adam Dunn, 2011
.168 Chris Davis, 2018
.172 Taylor Walls, 2022
The season long slump has affected the M’s. They are last in the major leagues in runs scored only a year after finishing in a tie for ninth.
Mariners Runs Scored
2025: 766 (4.7 per game) tied for 9th
2026: 469 (3.84 per game) last in MLB
| Judge and Raleigh | 2025 | 2026 |
| HR | 113 | 29 |
| RBI | 239 | 81 |
| BA | .287 (326-1137 AB) | .195 (104-534 AB) |
Raleigh went from a WAR over 7 (superstar level) to below 1 (less than a replacement player). Yikes. Some people say it’s due to his oblique injury suffered in May. Some say it’s his bat speed. Some say it’s because he’s having difficulty catching up with high-velocity fastballs.
I say it is because he’s a catcher. We give so much credit to Shohei Ohtani for playing offense (everyday) and defense (once a week). How about looking at the toll that catching takes?
We’ve seen this before.
One of the greatest backstops ever, Hall of Famer Roy Campanella, was a three-time MVP, but never put back-to-back great years together.
Campanella WAR
1951: 6.9 (MVP)
1952: 4.0
1953: 6.8 (MVP)
1954: 0.1
1955: 5.2 (MVP)
1956: 0.6
In 1954, Campy went from 41 HR to 19. He went from a .312 batting average to .207. He went from 142 RBI to 51.
In 1956, Campy went from a .318 batting average to .219.
Campy isn’t the only catcher to have ups-and-downs on the back of his baseball card.
Johnny Bench is on the very short list of greatest catchers ever. He won MVP in 1970 and 1972.
Does anyone want to sneak a peek at his 1971 season?
1970: 7.4 WAR (MVP)
1971: 4.0 WAR
1972: 8.6 WAR (MVP)
In 1971, Bench hit 27 HR (down from 45) and drove in 61 (down from 148). He batted .238 (down from .293).
Every situation is different, of course, but in 1986 Hall of Fame catcher Carlton Fisk had -1.7 WAR for the White Sox (491 plate appearances, 14 HR, 63 RBI). The year before, Pudge had a 3.3 WAR while hitting 37 HR, 107 RBI for the ChiSox. And the year after, Fisk rebounded with a 23 HR season and a 3.1 WAR in 1987.
Javy Lopez was the Braves’ catcher in the late 90s and early 2000s. In 2002, his WAR was 0.2 and he hit 11 HR. In 2003, his WAR was 6.8 and he belted 43 homers.
His WAR the next two seasons were 4.8 and then 2.0.
Javy had an OPS+ of 74 in 2002, and it went to 169 in 2003. The stock dropped quickly, with OPS+ of 127, 106, 75 the next three years.
Joe Mauer went from 9 HR in 2008 to 28 HR in 2009 back to 9 HR in 2010. It wasn’t for a lack of playing time. Mauer’s home run percentage went from a healthy 4.6% in 2009 to 1.5% the next year and 0.9% the year after that.
History is littered with catchers that had a big power year, only to find out the season was an outlier. Todd Hundley hit 41 HR in 1996. Earl Williams won Rookie of the Year in 1971 by hitting 33 homers. Charles Johnson hit 31 HR in 2000, with a WAR of 5.1 and an OPS+ of 142. This from a catcher that finished his career with an OPS+ of 97, and whose total WAR in 11 other seasons was just 17.5.
It remains to be seen if Raleigh bounces back like many of the Hall of Fame catchers, or if 2025 was a magical season. Last year, Cal hit a pair of homers on August 24 to give him 49 for the season. On August 25, Cal hit his 50th.
Last year, he did something no switch-hitter ever did. He hit 60 home runs in a season. Not Mickey Mantle. Not Chipper Jones.
Last year, Cal became only the seventh player ever to hit 60-plus home runs in a season, joining Babe Ruth, Roger Maris, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, and Aaron Judge. No matter what happens moving forward, Raleigh will always have his place in history.
For now, we’re left to wonder what is behind Caleigh’s dropoff. Perhaps it’s the weight of playing the position plus the weight of expectations. One thing is for certain, though. On Sunday Night Baseball, the spotlight doesn’t get any easier for Raleigh and the Mariners as they attempt to turn their season around.
Editors’ Note: Elliott Kalb - dubbed “Mr. Stats” decades ago by Marv Albert and Bob Costas - is the former Senior Editorial Director at MLB Network and a longtime contributor of research and information to NBC Sports’ telecasts.
