Major League Baseball is a fastball league. Velocity is all the rage, and pitchers up and down a roster are throwing harder than ever.
Fastball variations (four-seam, sinker, cutter) accounted for 55% of all pitches thrown in baseball this season, and the average four-seam velocity was 94.7 mph, which is up from 93 mph just a decade ago. Going further, 46% of four-seamers reached 95 mph or higher this season. It was just 24% in 2015, and 9.3% of all fastballs this season were 98 mph or harder, up from 2.8% a decade ago.
So, with hitters gearing up to hit high velocity more and more, the changeup is having its moment as a natural counterpunch.
“I feel like every couple of years there’s another pitch out there that is the next pitch to get hitters out,” explained Royals starter Michael Wacha at this year’s All-Star Game. “A couple of years ago, it was the sweeper, then the high fastball, but hitters make adjustments, and they start to cover those pitches, and it always trends into ‘Hey, what’s the next pitch?’ You saw it last year in the World Series, that split fingers and changeups were big-time pitches in that series, so, yeah, it might be making a little comeback. I’ve always been a fastball-changeup guy, so I’ve always kind of relied on it.”
The emphasis on the fastball from hitters is part of what makes the changeup so impactful.
“It’s one of those things that looks like a heater coming out of the hand, and a lot of hitters want to hit a heater,” explained Guardians ace Parker Messick. “It looks like a heater, and then the bottom falls out. It’s a push-pull, change-of-speed type of pitch, so I think it creates a bit of swing-and-miss, a bit of weak contact.”
Since the changeup is a natural counter to the fastball, we’ve seen its usage increase in 2026 more than any other pitch in the league, other than the sweeper, which is a lower-usage pitch overall.
| Pitch | 2025 usage % | 2026 usage % | Change (%) |
| Four-seam | 31.8 | 30.5 | -4.1 |
| Sinker | 15.4 | 16.6 | +7.8 |
| Slider | 14.3 | 13.1 | -8.4 |
| Changeup | 10.3 | 11.2 | +8.7 |
| Cutter | 7.5 | 8.0 | +6.7 |
| Sweeper | 7.6 | 8.3 | +9.2 |
| Curveball | 6.7 | 6.4 | -4.5 |
| Splitter | 3.3 | 3.2 | -3.0 |
Not only is changeup usage up, but it’s proving to be one of the most impactful pitches in the league, both in terms of weak contact allowed and swinging strikes.
| Pitch | OPS against | Barrel% against | Hard-Hit% against | SwStr% | Contact% |
| Splitter | 0.576 | 5.6 | 32.6 | 16.7 | 67.5 |
| Changeup | 0.618 | 5.6 | 31.8 | 14.9 | 70.4 |
| Sweeper | 0.631 | 7.6 | 30.4 | 13.2 | 70.5 |
| Curveball | 0.635 | 7.4 | 36.2 | 11.7 | 71 |
| Slider | 0.671 | 8.1 | 36.6 | 15.3 | 68.4 |
| Four-seam | 0.768 | 9.7 | 44.3 | 9.1 | 81.4 |
| Sinker | 0.776 | 6.3 | 42.4 | 5.3 | 88.5 |
| Cutter | 0.805 | 8.1 | 37.2 | 10.1 | 79.5 |
League-wide, the change-up’s 5.6% barrel rate allowed is tied for the lowest mark of any pitch, and its 31.8% hard-hit rate allowed is second-best, only trailing the sweeper. Its .618 OPS against is second only to the splitter, while the four-seamer has a mark of .768. The changeup also allowed the third-lowest contact rate at 70.4%, and had the third-highest swinging strike rate at 14.9%. The only pitches league-wide that got more swinging strikes in 2026 than the changeup were splitters and sliders (not sweepers).
That’s a key part of the changeup’s value. Not only does it induce weak contact, but it misses bats. Not only can pitchers pound the strike zone with it, but they can have it fall below the zone for whiffs. In fact, the in-zone swinging strike rate on changeups league-wide is 14.9%, which is the same as the swinging strike rate on changeups out of the zone. Unlike pitches like the four-seamer and sweeper, the changeup does not rely on being thrown out of the zone to induce whiffs.
“Also, a changeup is a pitch where there are so many different movement profiles,” explained Tampa Bay Rays starter Nick Martinez. “There’s just so many variables that play into what can be a good changeup, and so it’s hard for hitters to adjust for that.”
One of the newest movement profiles is the kick-change. When I wrote about the pitch back in May, I mentioned that a kick change is a variation of a changeup that uses a two-seam grip primarily and some spike from a bent finger to create more depth than a normal changeup. The “kick” in kick-change refers to “kicking the axis of the ball down,” through pressure from the ring finger. The added depth generated on the kick-change means that you’re creating splitter-like movement on a pitch that has a changeup-like grip and spin.
“I don’t know [if it’s a changeup],” laughed Wacha. “It’s not really a splitter either. I would say it’s more of a changeup than a splitter, but also you’re just using physics in your favor there.”
Another reason the kick-change has become more popular is that it’s easy for supinators to use. As detailed in this video, supination is when a pitcher releases a pitch with their thumb pointing up at the sky, while pronation is when the thumb turns over to point more towards the ground. Most pitchers identify as either “pronators” or “supinators” based on what feels natural or physically possible with their wrist movement. If a pitcher is a pronator by nature, then it may be hard for them to throw a pitch like a sweeper, which requires supination. Meanwhile, supinators are generally more comfortable gripping the outside of the baseball and are better at throwing breaking balls.
The popularity of the kick-change has meant that pitchers who may not have been able to find a changeup grip they liked before can now add a pitch to their arsenal. As most pitchers will tell you, adding any pitch into your mix can be a major benefit.
“If you can add to your repertoire, I think that’s a good thing for sure,” explained Wacha. “You see guys have success and see what makes them successful, like ‘Hey, this is that sweeper, this is that cutter, this is that changeup, and it’s like, ‘Hey, I could add that to my repertoire to help it get better and help my other pitches get better.”
Whether you want to call the kick-change a changeup or not, harder and flatter changeups are becoming more en vogue in Major League Baseball.
| 2025 | 2026 | Change | |
| Changeups thrown | 73,260.00 | 79,838.00 | +6,578.00 |
| Average changeup speed (mph) | 85.85 | 86.03 | +0.18 |
| Average changeup induced break (in) | 4.47 | 4.15 | -0.32 |
| % of changeups over 85 mph | 63.76 | 65.41 | +1.65 |
| % of changeups under 2 in break | 30.75 | 33.42 | +2.67 |
| % of changeups over 85 mph AND under 2 in | 22.28 | 24.13 | +1.85 |
Across the league, the average changeup is getting harder and flatter. The increased velocity makes some sense because fastballs are also getting harder and pitchers want to throw their changeup with the same arm speed as their fastball to create that deception. The flatter movement profile could be a result of the increased velocity, but it also could make the pitch more impactful to same-handed hitters.
In the past, pitchers have been hesitant to throw changeups to same-handed hitters because the movement profile is more of a soft pitch that runs away from an opposite-handed hitter. You don’t want to leave a changeup over the plate, so if you throw it to a same-handed hitter, you need to start it inside. If you have too much movement, you run the risk of having the pitch hit them. The harder changeup with less horizontal break makes that a little less likely, and we’ve seen many teams, like the Rays, increase their usage of same-handed changeups this year, adding another wrinkle to make the pitch more impactful.
“I just feel like it’s such a feel pitch,” said Red Sox rookie Jake Bennett. “If you don’t have that good feel for it, you don’t want to leave something up and have it run into their barrel. But if you’ve got the command for it, being able to throw it almost back foot [to same-handed hitters] is great.”
This season, Bennett’s 19.2% swinging-strike rate on his changeup was about five points above the league average for changeups and nearly double his four-seamer’s 11.2% swinging strike rate.
With the increased use of the kick-change, we’re still parsing through data because it’s hard to know which pitches that are classified as changeups use what grips, but we do know that changeups over 86 mph (the league average for a changeup) have led to more whiffs.
| 2026 | |
| % of changeups 86+ mph | 55.15 |
| SwStr% 86+ mph AND under 2 in break | 15.96 |
| SwStr% under 86 mph AND under 2 in break | 14.64 |
| SwStr% under 86 mph AND 2+ in break | 15.11 |
| Same-pitcher difference in SwStr% (86+ minus under 86 mph, pts) | 1.10 |
Fast, flat changeups missed more bats this season. Changeups thrown at 86 mph or harder with less than two inches of break posted a 16% swinging-strike rate, compared with 14.6% for changeups under 86 mph with similar break. If a pitcher threw a slower changeup with more break, it missed a few more bats, but the 15.1% mark was still below that of the harder changeups. When you split it up between individual pitchers, the gap between the swinging strike rate on their harder changeups and slower changeups was over 1%.
Another big benefit to the changeup is that it tends to be count-agnostic. The swinging strike rate on a changeup is consistent whether the pitch was thrown ahead or behind in the count, to lefties or righties, in the zone or out of it: “Just being able to throw it any count, I feel like that’s why it helps,” explained Bennett. “For two strikes, I try to throw it on top of the plate, and then if I’m behind the count, and I try to steal a strike or something, I just shift the sights up a little bit and try and get it in zone.”
Swinging Strike Rate by Count | ||||
| Pitch | Pitcher ahead (more strikes) | Even count (0-0, 1-1, 2-2) | Pitcher behind (more balls) | Full count (3-2) |
| Changeup | 14.69 | 14.72 | 15.61 | 15.90 |
| Four-seam | 11.47 | 8.56 | 7.47 | 9.40 |
| Sinker | 6.23 | 5.02 | 5.04 | 6.64 |
| Slider | 16.67 | 14.51 | 14.62 | 17.54 |
| Sweeper | 14.84 | 12.07 | 12.22 | 15.96 |
| Curveball | 14.79 | 10.00 | 9.74 | 13.95 |
The swinging-strike rate on the changeup when a pitcher is ahead in the count is almost identical to when the pitcher is behind in the count. Interestingly, the swinging strike rate on a changeup is highest when a pitcher is behind in the count or in a full count. Undoubtedly, this is because these are typical fastball counts, and when the hitter is sitting on a fastball, they’re more likely to be early on a changeup and swing through the pitch.
Many pitchers made a good living in 2026 by getting swings and misses on their changeup. Parker Messick was tied with Angels’ starter Walbert Ureña for the second-most strikeouts in baseball on his changeup at 71. Those names being together is a beautiful encapsulation of how varied the changeup can be. Messick’s changeup is 86 mph with over 15 inches of horizontal movement and essentially no vertical movement. Ureña has a 91 mph changeup with almost 18 inches of horizontal movement and 5.1 inches of vertical break or rise.
Yet, changeup success by count is not limited to swinging strike rate. It’s also an impactful pitch in terms of weak contact allowed, regardless of the count.
wOBA By Count | ||||
| Pitch | Pitcher ahead (more strikes) | Even count (0-0, 1-1, 2-2) | Pitcher behind (more balls) | Full count (3-2) |
| Changeup | 0.220 | 0.280 | 0.410 | 0.390 |
| Four-seam | 0.230 | 0.330 | 0.500 | 0.390 |
| Sinker | 0.260 | 0.340 | 0.440 | 0.380 |
| Slider | 0.230 | 0.300 | 0.470 | 0.360 |
| Sweeper | 0.210 | 0.290 | 0.470 | 0.370 |
| Curveball | 0.230 | 0.290 | 0.520 | 0.390 |
Now, when a pitcher is behind in the count, the wOBA against a changeup goes up considerably, but that’s the case for every pitch. Hitter’s counts tend to favor hitters. When a pitcher is behind, the wOBA against a changeup is .410, but that’s better than .500 for four-seamers, .440 for sinkers, and .470 for sliders. It’s not a perfectly like-for-like comparison, because pitchers throw more fastballs for strikes when behind, but it’s an indication that the higher wOBA number on the changeup when a pitcher is behind is not a negative factor against the offering.
“Just the change in speeds and the movement profile that I have,” said Martinez about why his changeup is so effective. “My ability to command it in and out of the zone, and having confidence to throw it in any count, working the fastball off the changeup, the curveball, the slider, whatever pitch I can mix and match to get to that changeup.” Martínez’s 15.5% swinging-strike rate on his changeup was just above the league average (14.3%), but his 23.2% hard-hit was almost 9% below the league average for changeup, and his wOBA allowed was .052 better.
Across the league, in an even count, the changeup has the lowest wOBA allowed of any pitch in baseball and has the second-lowest wOBA allowed when a pitcher is ahead in the count. Wacha has a .251 wOBA on his changeup, which is far better than the league’s average mark. His 15.4% swinging strike on the chanegup is slightly above the league’s 14.3% mark, but his 25.5% hard-hit rate allowed on it was elite.
“I personally feel the changeup is one of those pitches that is always going to be a successful pitch in the major leagues, simply because there’s no pitching machine that throws a changeup,” explained Martinez. “Nowadays, you have pitching machines that throw curveballs, cutters, and sliders, and you can get repetitions off those pitches. But throwing a changeup in batting practice, you really need that speed difference, you know, established with your fastball, especially in my case, to be able to make it effective.”
| Year | Avg four-seam (mph) | Four-seams 95+ mph (%) | Four-seams 98+ mph (%) | SwStr% on 95+ four-seams | Changeup SwStr% (all) |
| 2015 | 92.96 | 24.2 | 2.8 | 9.91 | 9.87 |
| 2019 | 93.31 | 26.2 | 2.7 | 11.29 | 11.15 |
| 2023 | 94.06 | 35.9 | 5.2 | 10.81 | 14.43 |
| 2024 | 94.21 | 38.7 | 5.5 | 11.06 | 14.25 |
| 2025 | 94.40 | 41.8 | 7.2 | 10.42 | 14.33 |
| 2026 | 94.73 | 46.4 | 9.3 | 10.71 | 14.68 |
That relationship between the fastball and changeup is crucial. As fastball velocity has increased, the swinging strike rate on high-velocity four-seamers has stayed relatively flat; however, the swinging strike rate on changeups has increased as hitters gear up for the increased fastball velocity. Messick and Bennett are pitchers who thrive off playing their four-seamer off their changeup.
Messick throws his four-seamer and changeup over 65% of the time. Both those pitches are well above the league average, with his four-seamer posting a .252 wOBA against (the league average is .345) and his changeup registering a .241 mark (the league average was .284. His swinging strike rates on both pitches were also above league average. 11.2% and 18.7% swinging strikes vs. 9.2% and 14.9% league. Jake Bennett throws either a four-seamer or changeup 63% of the time and has not been shy about the fact that his changeup success is predicated on his fastball location.
“I feel like, at least for me, the changeup tunnels off my fastball very well. I have a good four-seamer that plays at the top of the zone, and then just to be able to throw the changeup off of that and throw it below the zone, I feel like that’s where I get a lot of my success.”
Funnily enough, that last idea Bennett mentions about tunnelling off the fastball might be the reason that the changeup continues to befuddle people who create pitching models, which may also impact why the value of the changeup is not properly accounted for.
“The changeup depends on deception maybe most of all the pitches,” said Eno Sarris, who helped create the Stuff+ model used by FanGraphs. “It’s supposed to look like a fastball. Unfortunately for stuff models, I think ‘looking like a fastball’ includes data that we don’t have access to. Things like arm speed, in particular, would probably help stuff models capture a good changeup better.”
“I think the speed differential and movement are key,” described Wacha. “You know, hopefully I get it coming out looking like a fastball with the arm speed, keeping the same arm speed as a fastball. Hopefully that speed differential and the movement on it can fool them or get some weak contact.”
Wacha is one of the pitchers who has a changeup Stuff+ likes. His 130 Stuff+ grade on his changeup was second best in baseball among pitchers with 100 innings. Martinez ranked 9th on that list with a 109 Stuff+, and Messick was down at 18th with a 103 Stuff+, which is slightly above the 100 score for a league-average offering. Ureña’s changeup had a 98 Stuff+ despite its success, and Bennett’s changeup had an 87 Stuff+ grade, which was 66th among 141 qualified pitchers.
“Often the stats and data are behind when there’s this much disconnect with common sense and first principles,” explained Sarris.
While it may take the data and pitch models a little bit longer to catch up, pitchers across the league are already seeing that the changeup might be the key to unlocking another level of success in a velocity-driven league.
