We’re just a few hours from entering 2018 and many very talented free agents remain unsigned, like J.D. Martinez and Jake Arrieta. This is quite an abnormal development. To illustrate this, I took the top-10 free agents as listed by MLB Trade Rumors each year and marked their signing dates on my brilliantly-created calendars with an X, assembled into the slideshow below.
In 2010, eight of the top-10 free agents signed by the new year. In 2011, seven had signed by the new year. 2012, six. 2013, six. 2014, eight. 2015, five. 2016, seven. This year, only two have signed -- Carlos Santana and Wade Davis. That’s a stark departure from previous years. My inclusion of Santana in the top-10 is debatable as Masahiro Tanaka was originally in MLBTR’s top-10, but he chose not to opt out of his contract with the Yankees. So, I replaced him with Santana. One could’ve argued someone like Alex Cobb merited going into the top-10 over Santana, which would have reduced that number to one instead of two.
Here’s the data in table form if you want to fool around with it yourself:
| Season | Rank | Name | Position | Date | Years | Amount | Team |
| 2011 | 6 | Victor Martinez | 1B/DH | Nov. 26, 2010 | 4 | $50,000,000 | Tigers |
| 2011 | 5 | Adam Dunn | 1B/DH | Dec. 3, 2010 | 4 | $56,000,000 | White Sox |
| 2011 | 4 | Jayson Werth | OF | Dec. 5, 2010 | 7 | $126,000,000 | Nationals |
| 2011 | 8 | Mariano Rivera | RP | Dec. 7, 2010 | 2 | $30,000,000 | Yankees |
| 2011 | 10 | Derek Jeter | SS | Dec. 7, 2010 | 3 | $51,000,000 | Yankees |
| 2011 | 9 | Paul Konerko | 1B/DH | Dec. 8, 2010 | 3 | $37,500,000 | White Sox |
| 2011 | 2 | Carl Crawford | OF | Dec. 11, 2010 | 7 | $142,000,000 | Red Sox |
| 2011 | 1 | Cliff Lee | SP | Dec. 15, 2010 | 5 | $120,000,000 | Phillies |
| 2011 | 3 | Adrian Beltre | 3B | Jan. 5, 2011 | 5 | $80,000,000 | Rangers |
| 2011 | 7 | Rafael Soriano | RP | Jan. 18, 2011 | 3 | $35,000,000 | Yankees |
| 2012 | 10 | Jonathan Papelbon | RP | Nov. 14, 2011 | 4 | $50,000,000 | Phillies |
| 2012 | 3 | Jose Reyes | SS | Dec. 7, 2011 | 6 | $106,000,000 | Marlins |
| 2012 | 1 | Albert Pujols | 1B/DH | Dec. 8, 2011 | 10 | $246,841,811 | Angels |
| 2012 | 4 | C.J. Wilson | SP | Dec. 8, 2011 | 5 | $77,500,000 | Angels |
| 2012 | 8 | Aramis Ramirez | 3B | Dec. 13, 2011 | 3 | $36,000,000 | Brewers |
| 2012 | 7 | Jimmy Rollins | SS | Dec. 19, 2011 | 3 | $38,000,000 | Phillies |
| 2012 | 9 | Carlos Beltran | OF/DH | Dec. 23, 2011 | 2 | $26,000,000 | Cardinals |
| 2012 | 5 | Yu Darvish | SP | Jan. 18, 2012 | 6 | $56,000,000 | Rangers |
| 2012 | 2 | Prince Fielder | 1B/DH | Jan. 26, 2012 | 9 | $214,000,000 | Tigers |
| 2012 | 6 | Edwin Jackson | SP | Feb. 2, 2012 | 1 | $11,000,000 | Nationals |
| 2013 | 9 | Hiroki Kuroda | SP | Nov. 20, 2012 | 1 | $15,000,000 | Yankees |
| 2013 | 5 | Melvin Upton | OF | Nov. 29, 2012 | 5 | $75,000,000 | Braves |
| 2013 | 8 | Dan Haren | SP | Dec. 7, 2012 | 1 | $13,000,000 | Nationals |
| 2013 | 1 | Zack Greinke | SP | Dec. 10, 2012 | 6 | $147,000,000 | Dodgers |
| 2013 | 2 | Josh Hamilton | OF/DH | Dec. 15, 2012 | 5 | $125,000,000 | Angels |
| 2013 | 4 | Anibal Sanchez | SP | Dec. 17, 2012 | 5 | $80,000,000 | Tigers |
| 2013 | 7 | Edwin Jackson | SP | Jan. 2, 2013 | 4 | $52,000,000 | Cubs |
| 2013 | 6 | Nick Swisher | 1B/DH | Jan. 3, 2013 | 4 | $56,000,000 | Indians |
| 2013 | 3 | Michael Bourn | OF | Feb. 15, 2013 | 4 | $48,000,000 | Indians |
| 2013 | 10 | Kyle Lohse | SP | March 25, 2013 | 3 | $33,000,000 | Brewers |
| 2014 | 4 | Brian McCann | C | Dec. 3, 2013 | 5 | $85,000,000 | Yankees |
| 2014 | 2 | Jacoby Ellsbury | OF | Dec. 7, 2013 | 7 | $153,000,000 | Yankees |
| 2014 | 8 | Hiroki Kuroda | SP | Dec. 7, 2013 | 1 | $16,000,000 | Yankees |
| 2014 | 1 | Robinson Cano | 2B | Dec. 12, 2013 | 10 | $240,000,000 | Mariners |
| 2014 | 10 | Mike Napoli | SP | Dec. 12, 2013 | 2 | $32,000,000 | Red Sox |
| 2014 | 3 | Shin-Soo Choo | OF | Dec. 27, 2013 | 7 | $130,000,000 | Rangers |
| 2014 | 5 | Masahiro Tanaka | SP | Jan. 22, 2014 | 7 | $155,000,000 | Yankees |
| 2014 | 7 | Matt Garza | SP | Jan. 26, 2014 | 4 | $50,000,000 | Brewers |
| 2014 | 9 | A.J. Burnett | SP | Feb. 16, 2014 | 1 | $16,000,000 | Phillies |
| 2014 | 6 | Ervin Santana | SP | March 12, 2014 | 1 | $14,100,000 | Braves |
| 2015 | 6 | Victor Martinez | 1B/DH | Nov. 14, 2014 | 4 | $68,000,000 | Tigers |
| 2015 | 8 | Russell Martin | C | Nov. 18, 2014 | 5 | $82,000,000 | Blue Jays |
| 2015 | 4 | Hanley Ramirez | SS | Nov. 25, 2014 | 4 | $88,000,000 | Red Sox |
| 2015 | 5 | Pablo Sandoval | 3B/1B | Nov. 25, 2014 | 5 | $95,000,000 | Red Sox |
| 2015 | 9 | Nelson Cruz | OF/DH | Dec. 4, 2014 | 4 | $58,000,000 | Mariners |
| 2015 | 10 | Yasmany Tomas | OF/3B | Dec. 9, 2014 | 6 | $68,500,000 | Diamondbacks |
| 2015 | 2 | Jon Lester | SP | Dec. 15, 2014 | 6 | $155,000,000 | Cubs |
| 2015 | 7 | Melky Cabrera | OF | Dec. 16, 2014 | 3 | $42,000,000 | White Sox |
| 2015 | 1 | Max Scherzer | SP | Jan. 21, 2015 | 7 | $210,000,000 | Nationals |
| 2015 | 3 | James Shields | SP | Feb. 11, 2015 | 4 | $75,000,000 | Padres |
| 2016 | 7 | Jordan Zimmermann | SP | Nov. 30, 2015 | 5 | $110,000,000 | Tigers |
| 2016 | 1 | David Price | SP | Dec. 4, 2015 | 7 | $217,000,000 | Red Sox |
| 2016 | 3 | Zack Greinke | SP | Dec. 8, 2015 | 6 | $206,500,000 | Diamondbacks |
| 2016 | 2 | Jason Heyward | OF | Dec. 15, 2015 | 8 | $184,000,000 | Cubs |
| 2016 | 8 | Johnny Cueto | SP | Dec. 16, 2015 | 6 | $130,000,000 | Giants |
| 2016 | 9 | Alex Gordon | OF | Jan. 6, 2016 | 4 | $72,000,000 | Royals |
| 2016 | 4 | Justin Upton | OF | Jan. 20, 2016 | 6 | $132,750,000 | Tigers |
| 2016 | 5 | Chris Davis | 1B/DH | Jan. 21, 2016 | 7 | $161,000,000 | Orioles |
| 2016 | 6 | Yoenis Cespedes | OF | Jan. 26, 2016 | 3 | $75,000,000 | Mets |
| 2016 | 10 | Ian Desmond | SS | Feb. 29, 2016 | 1 | $8,000,000 | Rangers |
| 2017 | 7 | Jeremy Hellickson | SP | Nov. 14, 2016 | 1 | $17,200,000 | Phillies |
| 2017 | 1 | Yoenis Cespedes | OF | Nov. 30, 2016 | 4 | $110,000,000 | Mets |
| 2017 | 6 | Dexter Fowler | OF | Dec. 9, 2016 | 5 | $82,500,000 | Cardinals |
| 2017 | 9 | Ian Desmond | SS/OF | Dec. 13, 2016 | 5 | $70,000,000 | Rockies |
| 2017 | 3 | Aroldis Chapman | RP | Dec. 15, 2016 | 5 | $86,000,000 | Yankees |
| 2017 | 4 | Justin Turner | 3B | Dec. 23, 2016 | 4 | $64,000,000 | Dodgers |
| 2017 | 10 | Ivan Nova | SP | Dec. 27, 2016 | 3 | $26,000,000 | Pirates |
| 2017 | 2 | Edwin Encarnacion | 1B/DH | Jan. 5, 2017 | 3 | $60,000,000 | Indians |
| 2017 | 5 | Kenley Jansen | RP | Jan. 10, 2017 | 5 | $80,000,000 | Dodgers |
| 2017 | 8 | Mark Trumbo | 1B/OF/DH | Jan. 20, 2017 | 3 | $37,500,000 | Orioles |
| 2018 | 1 | Yu Darvish | SP | ||||
| 2018 | 2 | J.D. Martinez | OF | ||||
| 2018 | 3 | Eric Hosmer | 1B | ||||
| 2018 | 4 | Jake Arrieta | SP | ||||
| 2018 | 10 | Carlos Santana | 1B | Dec. 20, 2017 | 3 | $60,000,000 | Phillies |
| 2018 | 5 | Mike Moustakas | 3B | ||||
| 2018 | 6 | Lorenzo Cain | OF | ||||
| 2018 | 7 | Wade Davis | RP | Dec. 29, 2017 | 3 | $52,000,000 | Rockies |
| 2018 | 8 | Lance Lynn | SP | ||||
| 2018 | 9 | Greg Holland | RP |
Last week, I wrote about how the competitive balance tax is affecting free agent signings. The CBT essentially functions as a soft salary cap because teams don’t want to pay the penalty. The Associated Press reported that the Dodgers were hit with a $36.2 million luxury tax, followed by the Yankees at $15.7 million. That’s a lot of money, especially for the Dodgers. Earlier this month, the Dodgers made a trade with the Braves to re-acquire Matt Kemp in exchange for a handful of players, allowing them to spread their obligations over two seasons instead of one. The CBT, with the threshold now at $197 million, is very clearly a concern for wealthier teams now.
Another factor is the rate of success signing top-10 free agents. A cursory glance at the list above reveals a lot of misses and most teams are understandably hesitant to repeat those mistakes. The reasons for that are manyfold, but a big one is that teams are now signing their talented prospects to contract extensions well before they become eligible for free agency. As a result, players become free agents later in their careers, past their primes. Teams signing free agents are taking on more post-prime years than they were before. Players that do hit free agency before or during their prime are either not as talented as their peers that signed extensions or reached the major leagues at a young age (like Bryce Harper if and when he becomes a free agent).
Earlier this month, Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti also said that, as a result of every organization now having implemented an analytics department, teams are starting to value players very similarly. That is true just as much of free agents as it is about players involved in trades. If Teams A, B, C, and D all value Free Agent Guy at a maximum of $70 million over three years, then he isn’t likely to get his asking price of five years and $125 million because those teams aren’t as likely to get into a bidding war against each other.
These factors -- the CBT, history, and analytics -- have created a chasm between what players want and what teams are willing to pay. That’s why we’re seeing a majority of the top free agents remain teamless going into the new year. For team owners and executives, this is a great development. For players, agents, and people who care about labor issues, this isn’t heading in a good direction and must be addressed when the next collective bargaining agreement is negotiated. The players’ share of league revenues continues to decline.