It’s time to fill out your brackets and place your bets! The first round is usually chalky as favorites tend to rule, so I have four of them worth backing, but one underdog I think can win against one of the most expensive rosters in the country. All game lines and odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
Siena vs Duke (-27.5): O/U 135.5
Siena was one of the hottest cover teams in the country, going 20-14 ATS, but let’s be honest, they are out of their depth here. You’re no longer swimming with the fishes, but swimming with the sharks.
People will be off of backing Duke against the spread because of their injuries, but those injuries won’t be a concern with Siena. The Saints played the 347th toughest strength of schedule out of 362 teams and they own the 210th-rated offense.
Duke wins the No. 2 ranked defense and will give Siena major issues all game. The Saints shoot 30.4% from three (334th) and play slow at the 319th tempo, which won’t mix well against Duke, The Blue Devils cover the big -27.5, and I’d go out to -29.5. I gave this bet out on X Sunday night, so make sure you shop around for the best number.
Pick: Duke -27.5 (1 unit)
Texas vs BYU (-2.5): O/U 157.5
Normally, one of the first four winners makes a run to the Sweet 16 and if there is one this year, I think it’s the Texas Longhorns. This draw is incredible for Texas as BYU isn’t a defensive-minded team whatsoever and the two play at similar tempos.
The Longhorns rank 18th nationally in offensive efficiency and have an average DI experience of 2.75 years on their roster, ranking fourth-most in the country. The Cougars ranked bottom three on defense in Big 12 action for defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, and three-point percentage. Offensively, BYU struggled to hit the triple as well, nailing 33.1%, which was fifth-worst.
Without Richie Saunders, this BYU offense has survived, but the defense has really dropped off. BYU is 119th in defensive efficiency since Saunders was injured and the Cougars have a 4-5 record to go along with the 348th-ranked three-point defense (41.9%). Texas can absolutely win this game in what should be a seesaw battle, so I will take the +2.5.
Pick: Texas +2.5 (1 unit)
LIU vs Arizona (-30.5): O/U 150.5
LIU played the 350th-rated strength of schedule this year, turns the ball over 19% of possessions on the season, which is 320th overall, and struggles to defensive rebound (32.6%, 289th). That will not bode well against Arizona.
If you are handing Arizona extra possessions, the game will get ugly faster than you can say Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious, right? The Wildcats have the third-ranked defense per Kenpom and plays extremely fast. LIU also cannot shoot free-throws (66.8%, 344th), so there won’t be any easy buckets in this game.
Arizona will roll LIU and cover the big spread. I played -29.5 and sent this out on X Sunday Night. I would go to -31, so make sure you shop around.
Pick: Arizona -29.5 (1 unit)
Clemson vs Iowa (-2.5): O/U 128.5
Two of the slowest playing teams in the tournament meet up when Clemson and Iowa meet in the first round. Whether than taking the Under, which continues to drop, I will back the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Not only has the Big Ten conference performed better than the ACC, but I think Iowa has more than Clemson. The Hawkeyes are not just the better offensive team, rating 31st in efficiency per Kenpom, 16th in two-point percentage (58.9%), and shoot 77% from the free-throw line (33rd), but defensive too. Iowa forces turnovers at the 14th-highest clip in the country (21%) and ranks 30th in defensive efficiency.
Clemson rates slighter higher at 20th in defensive efficiency, but they’ve also played the easier strength of schedule. The Tigers shoot 72.6% from the free-throw line (182nd) and struggle to offensive rebound (28.2%, 261st) as apart of the 71st-rated offensive efficiency. I can’t trust that.
Both teams ended the regular season on losing skids. Clemson went 2-5 over the final seven games of the regular season before going 2-1 in the ACC Tournament. Iowa finished the regular season 2-6 over the final eight games and went 1-1 in the Big Ten Tournament. Despite both squads not playing its best basketball, I will back Bennett Stirtz and Iowa to get their first NCAA Tournament win since 2021-22.
Pick: Iowa ML (1 unit)
Wright State vs Virginia (-18.5): O/U 145.5
Wright State played one team that ranked top 100 in defensive efficiency this season, and that was California in their second game of the season back on Nov. 6 and Wright State lost 77-67.
Virginia is 16th in defensive efficiency this season and had the No. 1 ranks in DEF EFG%, 2PT%, and 3PT% in ACC play this year. The Cavaliers are one of the most underrated teams this season and has taken a significant step up in offense. Virginia ranks 27th in offensive efficiency this season after 103rd and 200th over the last two seasons. The Hoos rank 55.3% in two-point percentage (53rd) after shooting 49.9% last year (221st) and 46.3% in 2024 (323rd).
This improved Virginia team should wreck Wright State, so give me the -17.5 out to -19.5. I believe in Ryan Odom, the former VCU coach, to continue to turning this UVA program around after one year of Ron Sanchez following the Tony Bennett era.
Pick: Virginia -17.5 (1 unit)
Santa Clara vs Kentucky (-3.5): O/U 160.5
Kentucky has a $22 million dollar roster and I am going to take them to lose or at least not cover in the first round of the tournament. The Wildcats have lost two most important players this year (Jaland Lowe, Jayden Quaintance), so it’s not the exact same team they expected to have.
The Broncos force a turnover 20.1% of the time (22nd) and the Wildcats struggled with turning the ball over in SEC play this year with a 15.9% turnover rate (12th out of 16 teams). Kentucky also doesn’t force turnovers (299th) or defensive rebound well (164th). Santa Clara ranks 19th in offensive rebounding percentage and doesn’t rely on free-throws to get buckets (14.2% of points).
The Broncos rank 23rd in offensive efficiency, while the Wildcats are 27th in defensive efficiency, so this should be a battle worth watching. Santa Clara is organized and hungry, so I will take them with the points in a potential upset.
Pick: Santa Clara +3.5 (1 unit)
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NCAA Basketball schedule!
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
