UFC 304 kicks off this weekend in Manchester, England. As expected, the card is stacked with two great title bouts headlining the event. The co-main is a clash between interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes. The night wraps up with the welterweight title fight between the champion Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad.
UFC 304 Best Bet
Leon Edwards (-275) vs Belal Muhammad (+210)
The first match ended as a non-contest due to an accidental eye poke in the second round. Depending on who you ask, you may be told that Edwards dominated Muhammad. Others might suggest that Muhammad took Edward’s best shot and worked himself back into the match. None of that matters now; they are set to go to war on Saturday to determine who will be king of the welterweight division.
There’s no question that Edwards is the rightful favorite. He’s on an impressive run. His last defeat was at the hands of Kamaru Usman back at the end of 2015. Since then, he’s won 12 fights without suffering a defeat. In that time, he avenged his loss to Usman, not once but twice.
Nine of those 12 wins went to decision, with five being five-round bouts.
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Muhammad is on a nice winning streak. Since the NC against Edwards, he’s racked up five straight wins. He’s knocked off some impressive fighters as well. Wins against Demian Maia, Stephen Thompson, Vicente Luque, Sean Brady, and Gilbert Burns.
Four of the five wins went to decision.
There’s a theme among these fighters: their fights often go the distance.
I am betting Fight to Go the Distance (-175).
There’s no doubt that Edwards is a great and decisive striker with a deadly head kick in his arsenal. Muhammad likely won’t stand on the outside. He will close the distance and try to make life difficult for Edwards with constant pressure.
The time spent in the clinch and on the mat will slow this fight down tremendously.
It may not be the sexiest bet on the card, but market consensus has this around -205. We are getting a good bit of value for a strong possibility.
