Daytona Supercross by the numbers: Is Eli Tomac untouchable?
The Daytona Monster Energy Supercross numbers suggest that Eli Tomac may be practically untouchable after his winning six of the last seven races on this course, including the last four consecutive.
For years, it was believed Ricky Carmichael’s five Daytona Supercross wins would stand the test of time until Tomac tied him with five in 2021. Last year, Tomac took sole possession of the record with his sixth victory and now there is a chance history could repeat this weekend. Tomac tied another of Carmichael’s records in Oakland with his 48th win in the stadium series and could push that rider back a position if he is able to score a fifth straight win on this Supercross track that also has elements of Motocross mixed in.
How likely is that? Tomac stumbled twice in 2023 before Arlington and each time he roared back with a victory. His sixth-place finish in the second Anaheim race was followed by a win in Houston. The following week, Tomac protected his points’ lead by riding a safe race at Tampa. He won the following round in Oakland.
Last week was another uncharacteristic finish for Tomac. He stood on the podium, but a rare crash on the tunnel jump while he was leading the third race of the Arlington Triple Crown allowed Cooper Webb to close to within two points. Webb has not yet won in Daytona, but he led 15 of 18 laps last year and finished second. Equally important, he has stood on the Daytona podium in each of his five starts.
Third-place Chase Sexton will make his third appearance at Daytona after earning the final podium spot last year.
It’s a fair bet that these three riders could stand on the podium again because they have combined for 16 of the 21 podiums available so far in 2023. With six, Sexton leads Tomac and Webb, who have five each.
Webb and Sexton remain the only riders to sweep the top five in the first seven rounds.
The rider leaving Daytona will have a distinct advantage as the series nears the halfway point. The points leader after this race has won the title 78 percent of the time, according to Supercross statistician Clinton Fowler from Three Laps Down. Since 1990, the leader after Daytona has 88 percent of the championship wins. The most recent exception belongs to Ken Roczen in 2021 when he was a mere two points ahead of the eventual champion Webb.
Notably, two points is the current separation between Tomac and Webb entering this weekend.
The five points between Tomac and third-place Sexton is now the closest in history at this stage of the season.
With so many fresh faces in the 250 East class, we’ve become accustomed to seeing new winners each week, but Jordon Smith and Jeremy Martin would like to have something to say about that. Smith won Daytona in 2018; Marin won in 2016. Both riders had strong runs last weekend in Arlington with Smith victorious in Race 2 of the Triple Crown and Martin claiming Race 3.
To do this, they will have to beat Hunter Lawrence, who is seeking an eighth SMX win that would move him into the top 50 in all-time wins.
Last Five Daytona Winners
2022: Eli Tomac
2021: Eli Tomac
2020: Eli Tomac
2019: Eli Tomac
2018: Justin Brayton
2022: Jett Lawrence
2021: Cameron McAdoo
2020: Garrett Marchbanks
2019: Austin Forkner
2018: Jordon Smith
By the Numbers
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