They say you can’t judge a draft class for at least three years.
So on a slow-moving Tuesday in July, let’s take a look back at the first round of the 2007 draft. This item about No. 9 overall pick Falcons defensive end Jamaal Anderson being on the bubble got us thinking. How many players in the first round have proven to be disappointments?
Here’s how we’d categorize 31 first-round picks from that class. We gave consideration to where the player was taken when evaluating the success of the pick.
(Note that the late Gaines Adams tragically passed away last year and we’ll keep him out of the discussion.)
Home run picks (6): Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, Darrelle Revis, Jon Beason.
Great picks (4): Leon Hall, Michael Griffin, Brandon Meriweather, Anthony Spencer.
Good picks (7): Lawrence Timmons, Aaron Ross, Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Joe Staley, Ben Grubbs, Greg Olsen.
That’s the good news. 17 of 31 picks can be seen as net positives. Now for the rest . . .
Vaguely disappointing (5): Levi Brown, LaRon Landry, Amobi Okoye, Marshawn Lynch, Anthony Gonzalez.
Next stop b-word, but still with original team (5): Jamaal Anderson, Justin Harrell, Jarvis Moss, Reggie Nelson, Craig Davis.
Given away for scraps (3): Ted Ginn, Adam Carriker, Brady Quinn.
JaMarcus Russell deserves his own category (1): JaMarcus Russell.
It’s interesting to note that the top 11 includes four of the best players at their positions, but the last eleven picks had fewer misfires. Picks No. 23-29 included a string of seven straight solid players: Bowe, Meriweather, Beason, Spencer, Meachem, Staley, and Grubbs.
MDS also pointed out that the Jets’ trade down to Carolina was a classic case of a win-win for both sides.
Thanks for joining us in this exercise of random list-making.