The MVP award has become, essentially, a “best quarterback” award — with rare exceptions.
No non-quarterback has won the MVP prize since Vikings running back Adrian Peterson eked out the distinction over Peyton Manning in 2012. In the current century, a non-quarterback became the MVP only four times: Marshall Faulk in 2000, Shaun Alexander in 2005, LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006, and Peterson in 2012.
This year, a couple of running backs deserve serious consideration, based on what we’ve seen through four weeks.
Falcons running back Bijan Robinson is a touchdown waiting to happen, on any given play. His opening-drive 59-yard touchdown run on Monday night in New Orleans set the tone for Atlantas’ 45-24 win.
Though four games, Robinson has 494 yards rushing and 120 yards receiving and five total touchdowns.
Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III has become the straw that stirs the Kansas City cocktail. He has 537 yards rushing, 84 yards receiving, and six total touchdowns. He’s also the third player in NFL history to have 170 or more rushing yards in two of the first four games of a season, joining only Jim Brown and O.J. Simpson.
Both Robinson and Walker have 99 touches. Walker has gained 621 yards. Robinson has gained 614.
When it comes to the MVP betting odds (which are instructive to the general perceptions that surely will influence some or many of the 50 Associated Press voters), both Robinson and Walker are low on the list. Robinson, who was 70-1 when Simms and I discussed the dynamic earlier this morning on PFT Live, is now at 60-1. Walker is 50-1.
Currently, the eight highest players on the list of odds are quarterbacks.
Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs sits at 30-1, which may be a reflection of the bets made on him before the season started. (He has 102 touches and 540 yards from scrimmage, with seven touchdowns.)
Here’s the real question. Is the perception of “value” skewed by the fact that the best quarterbacks make so much more money than the best quarterbacks? The top of the quarterback market is approaching $65 million per year. Gibbs, the highest-paid running back, is at $22.5 million annually.
Robinson sits at $22.25 million per year. Walker, who signed as a free agent months before the Robinson and Gibbs deals were done, is making $14.35 million per year. (To put it apples-to-apples terms, the Gibbs deal is worth $16.995 million per year from signing, Robinson’s deal has an average of $16.36 million from signing.)
The best running backs are far more valuable to their teams than the market suggests. The existing market held back Walker, Robinson, and Gibbs. The enhanced injury risk at the position is a major factor in the unwillingness of teams to embrace the financial risk that the player at some point won’t be available.
While their “value” may not properly be reflected in their contracts, it needs to be recognized in their consideration for the MVP award. The present betting trends show that it’s not. Whether it will be comes down to the ability and willingness of the voters to stop viewing the MVP as a quarterback prize and to start looking at the definition of the prize, as articulated by the AP.
“The player who was most valuable to their team over the course of the season.”
Robinson and Walker fit the bill. Gibbs will, too, if the Lions can recover from a sluggish start and become true contenders.
Falcons Clips
Signs continue to point toward Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson missing Sunday night’s game in Atlanta.
PFT reported that Jackson was considered week-to-week after injuring his ankle in Baltimore’s Week 4 win over the Titans with an MRI still to come to determine the extent of the issue. Jackson underwent further evaluation on Monday and Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reports that there is only an “outside chance” that he will be available against the Falcons.
Jackson’s chances of playing in Week 6 will rely on how his sprained ankle responds to treatment.
Tyler Huntley will start for the Ravens as long as Jackson is out of action. Huntley was 8-of-9 for 63 yards in the second half of the win over the Titans and he has started 11 times for Baltimore over the years. He also made five starts for the Dolphins in 2024.
Falcons safety Jessie Bates wasn’t exaggerating when he said they’re a different team with Michael Penix.
After starting the season 0-2, the Falcons are 2-0 since Penix became the starter in Week 3. But even that doesn’t fully display how different things have been with Penix.
On average, NFL teams are scoring 23.1 points per game this season. If we considered the Falcons two different teams, with Penix and without him, the version with Penix would rank first in the NFL with an average of 40.0 points per game — more than a touchdown better than the No. 1, the Bills, who average 31.8 points per game. Meanwhile, the version of the Falcons without Penix averaged 8.0 points per game. That ranks dead last, more than a field goal worse than the No. 32 Dolphins, who are averaging 11.5 points per game.
Among the 42 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 15 passes this season, Penix ranks fifth with a 113.1 passer rating. The two Falcons quarterbacks who played before Penix are dead last: Rush ranks 41st with a 42.5 passer rating, and Jack Strand ranks 42nd with a 35.1 passer rating.
How much better is Penix at avoiding pressure than Rush and Strand? Rush was sacked five times while throwing 39 passes. Strand was sacked twice while throwing 15 passes. Penix has been sacked only once while throwing 45 passes, and Penix played most of the second game after the Falcons lost starting left tackle Jake Matthews to an injury.
The effect of Penix on his teammates is notable. In two games with Penix, Falcons running back Bijan Robinson has rushed for 339 yards and four touchdowns. In two games without Penix, Robinson rushed for 155 yards and no touchdowns. Backup running back Brian Robinson has 24 carries for 112 yards and four touchdowns with Penix. He had 20 carries for 82 yards and no touchdowns without Penix.
The Falcons’ top receiver, Drake London, has 14 catches for 290 yards in two games with Penix. London had six catches for 80 yards in two games without Penix.
That stats are a remarkable display of just how well Penix is playing — and just how poorly Rush and Strand played. With a different quarterback, the Falcons are a completely different team.
During the first two weeks of the 2026 season, the Falcons looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL.
The last two weeks have been much different. A 35-14 win in Green Bay in Week 3 was followed by Monday night’s 45-24 rout of the Saints in New Orleans and it’s not hard to notice the biggest difference in the team over the last two games. Quarterback Michael Penix was cleared to return from last season’s torn ACL and he’s been at the helm of their offensive explosion.
Penix is 33-of-45 for 479 yards and two touchdowns in the two wins and combining accuracy with an ability to pick up big chunks of yardage every time the ball is in the air has opened the door for the Falcons to run wild. Bijan Robinson has run for 339 yards and four touchdowns while Brian Robinson has 117 yards to go with four more scores in the back-to-back wins. The change in offense has made a strong impression on safety Jessie Bates.
“We just want to show the world who we can be,” Bates said, via Marc Raimondi of ESPN.com. “The first two weeks were not up to our standards. Obviously, when you got [Penix] back there dealing, it’s a whole different team. So, we’re just excited to continue to go with this.”
The Falcons had a strong collection of skill position players to open the season, but poor quarterback play didn’t allow them to take advantage of that talent. The shift with Penix has been clear and it’s opened the door to a much brighter future in Atlanta.
The NFL scheduled the Saints to host the Falcons on Monday night to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the Superdome’s reopening after Hurricane Katrina. It was a big night in New Orleans, and the Saints did not match the fans’ energy.
Saints head coach Kellen Moore said after the 45-24 loss that the team came out flat despite the excitement of the moment.
“Really disappointing game for us,” Moore said. “The dome was an incredible night, incredible energy. I did a poor job preparing our football team. Didn’t coach well enough, didn’t play well enough. It wasn’t good enough. We’re at where we’re at, a 1-3 football team with some good moments but not enough consistent football to be where we ultimately want to be. We’ve got a lot of work to do.”
Moore said he addressed the historical significance of the game with his team and thought they bought into this being a particularly big game. But when it was time to put it all together, they didn’t.
“We talked about it at the beginning of the week, the guys were fired up,” Moore said. “I thought there was good energy, we just didn’t execute well enough.”
The Saints saw the nationally televised, much-discussed game as a big opportunity to show what kind of team they are, and they didn’t show much.
“Those are big-time opportunities,” Moore said. “It’s just disappointing for us and I know there’s frustration for everyone.”
The Saints will always have the Hurricane Katrina game on Sept. 25, 2006. Steve Gleason’s block of a Falcons’ punt is commemorated in a statue outside the Superdome titled “Rebirth.”
But Monday night belonged to the Falcons.
Atlanta ruined New Orleans’ “Domecoming” celebration, routing the Saints 45-24.
The Superdome cleared out in the second half as the Falcons ran over the Saints, with 205 of their 420 yards coming on the ground. Bijan Robinson had 19 carries for 145 yards and two touchdowns, and Brian Robinson added 14 carries for 62 yards and three touchdowns.
Bijan Robinson went 59 yards for a touchdown on the third play from scrimmage, a foreshadowing of how the night was going to go.
The Falcons led 14-0 at the end of the first quarter and 24-7 at halftime before continuing to pour on the points in the second half.
The Falcons scored the fewest points in the NFL the first two weeks, with 16. In the past two games, since quarterback Michael Penix returned, the Falcons have an NFL-leading 80 points. The Falcons are 2-2 and tied with the Panthers atop the NFC South. The Saints are 1-3.
Penix went 15-of-20 for 223 yards and a touchdown, which was a 31-yard throw to Jahan Dotson. Drake London caught five passes for 96 yards and Dotson had two for 54.
Alvin Kamara turned back time in scoring two of the Saints’ touchdowns on runs of 3 and 5 yards. He tied Deuce McAllister’s franchise record for most multiple-rushing touchdown games with his 14th.
Late in the fourth quarter, with the game out of reach, Devaughn Vele made one of the best catches of the season. He got both feet down for a 3-yard touchdown with 1:13 left.
Tyler Shough went 30-of-48 for 286 yards and a touchdown despite banging up his left hand. Chris Olave caught eight passes for 116 yards before taking a hard hit on his knee late in the game.
The only bad news for the Falcons was the loss of edge rusher Za’Darius Smith (concussion) and left tackle Jake Matthews (groin). They left in the first half with their injuries and now have a short week to try to get back for the Ravens on Sunday Night Football.
Falcons left tackle Jake Matthews will not return tonight.
The Falcons have ruled him out.
Now, the question becomes: Will his groin injury keep him out of Sunday night’s game against the Ravens on a short week?
Matthews has started 199 games in a row, the longest active streak in the NFL. He made his 200th career start on Monday night but left in the first quarter.
The Falcons are rolling in the third quarter, holding a 31-10 lead after Brian Robinson’s second rushing touchdown. The Falcons have 173 rushing yards, with Bijan Robinson running for 132 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries. Brian Robinson has 11 carries for 41 yards.
Saints fans were ready to party like it’s 2006. Bijan Robinson, though, has reigned over their parade.
The Falcons running back has 12 carries for 103 yards and two touchdowns, and Atlanta leads 24-7 at halftime.
The pregame celebration had barely cleared the field from their “Domecoming” when Robinson broke a 59-yard touchdown run. It came on the third play from scrimmage.
He later added a 4-yard touchdown run.
The Falcons scored on four of their seven first-half possessions, and they outgained the Saints 255 to 147 yards.
Brian Robinson scored the Falcons’ third touchdown on a 4-yard run, and he has nine carries for 35 yards.
Michael Penix has completed 10 of 15 passes for 125 yards, with Drake London catching four for 82.
Saints quarterback Tyler Shough is 12-of-19 for 139 yards, with Chris Olave catching three for 62. The team’s only touchdown came on Alvin Kamara’s 3-yard run.
The Saints, though, have only 15 yards rushing on seven carries.
Falcons left tackle Jake Matthews made his 199th consecutive start on Monday night. But he watched the Falcons’ 10-play, 65-yard scoring drive from the sideline.
Matthews left in the first quarter with a groin injury that has him questionable to return.
He does not look as if he will.
Matthews’ starting streak is the longest active streak in the NFL.
Michael Jerrell has replaced Matthews, and Jerrell helped Brian Robinson score on a 4-yard run. The Falcons lead 21-7.
The Falcons have ruled out pass rusher Za’Darius Smith with a concussion. Smith took a knee to the head from a teammate early in the first quarter.
The Saints needed a touchdown. They got a touchdown.
Running back Alvin Kamara scored on a 3-yard run, pulling the Saints to within 14-7 of the Falcons.
It was his first rushing touchdown of the season and the 62nd of his career.
The Saints started their fourth drive from their own 46 after Falcons cornerback Billy Bowman Jr. was penalized for unnecessary roughness on the kickoff. Tyler Shough then hit Chris Olave for 44 yards to the Atlanta 10 on the first play from scrimmage on the drive.
Shough has completed 7 of 10 passes for 100 yards.
