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NFL Week 16 playoff picture: Jaguars closing in on AFC South lead, Jets fading in wild card race

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Mike Florio and Chris Simms dive into Week 16’s best showdowns, from Geno Smith going head-to-head with Patrick Mahomes to Russell Wilson squaring up against Bobby Wagner and more.

The Jaguars’ win over the Jets on Thursday night put the Jaguars in great shape and all but knocked the Jets out of contention.

Jacksonville is still half a game behind Tennessee in the AFC South, but the Jaguars are the betting favorites to win the division and control their playoff destiny.

The Jets haven’t been mathematically eliminated from wild card contention, but they’re now long shots.

Here’s how the AFC playoff picture looks after Thursday night’s game:

CURRENTLY IN
1. Bills (11-3) The head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs is big.

2. Chiefs (11-3) Clinched the AFC West.

3. Bengals (10-4) Clinched at least a wild card.

4. Titans (7-7) Barely holding onto the AFC South lead.

5. Ravens (9-5) Fading down the stretch but still a safe bet to earn a wild card.

6. Chargers (8-6) Own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins.

7. Dolphins (8-6) One-game lead in the wild card race with three games to go.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
8. Patriots (7-7) Still control their playoff destiny.

9. Jaguars (7-8) If they win their last two games, they win the AFC South.

10. Jets (7-8) A playoff-caliber defense was let down by its offense.

11. Raiders (6-8) Still not totally out of wild card contention.

12. Browns (6-8) Trying to stay out of last place in the AFC North.

13. Steelers (6-8) Trying to avoid Mike Tomlin’s first losing season.

NO CHANCE OF GETTING IN
14. Colts (4-9-1) Mathematically eliminated.

15. Broncos (4-10) Mathematically eliminated.

16. Texans (1-12-1) Mathematically eliminated.