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Playoff scenarios for Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season

No AFC teams have clinched a division title yet, but Week 16 could end with three of the conference’s four divisions settled.

The NFL released the playoff scenarios for this week and they show that the Ravens, Chiefs, and Dolphins could wrap up their divisions this weekend. The Chiefs are the only member of that trio with the ability to win their division without the help of any other results as a win over the Raiders on Christmas will make them AFC West champions for the eighth straight season.

The Ravens are the only one of those three teams that has already clinched a playoff berth.

In the NFC, the Lions can sew up the NFC North and the 49ers can seal the top seed in the conference. The 49ers need to win and they need the Lions to lose along with other results for that to happen, so both things won’t happen this weekend.

The full Week 16 playoff scenarios are below:

AFC
CLINCHED:
Baltimore Ravens (11-3) – playoff berth

BALTIMORE RAVENS (11-3) at San Francisco (11-3); Christmas (Monday), 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC

Baltimore clinches AFC North division title with:

  1. BAL win + CLE loss or tie OR
  2. BAL tie + CLE loss

CLEVELAND BROWNS (9-5) at Houston (8-6); Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Cleveland clinches playoff berth with:

  1. CLE win + CIN loss + DEN loss or tie + BUF loss + MIA win or tie + IND loss or tie OR
  2. CLE win + PIT loss or tie + BUF loss + MIA win or tie + DEN loss or tie OR
  3. CLE win + PIT loss or tie + BUF loss + MIA win or tie + JAX loss + IND win OR
  4. CLE win + PIT loss or tie + DEN loss or tie + JAX loss + IND win OR
  5. CLE win + PIT loss or tie + BUF loss + KC win + IND win + JAX loss OR
  6. CLE win + PIT loss or tie + DEN loss or tie + MIA win or tie + IND loss OR
  7. CLE win + PIT loss or tie + DEN loss or tie + MIA win or tie + JAX loss OR
  8. CLE win + CIN-PIT tie + BUF loss + IND win + JAX loss

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (9-5) vs. Las Vegas (6-8); Christmas (Monday), 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Kansas City clinches playoff berth and AFC West division title with:

  1. KC win OR
  2. KC tie + DEN loss

MIAMI DOLPHINS (10-4) vs. Dallas (10-4); Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

Miami clinches AFC East division title with:

  1. MIA win + BUF loss or tie OR
  2. MIA tie + BUF loss

Miami clinches playoff berth with:

  1. MIA win OR
  2. MIA tie + JAX loss OR
  3. MIA tie + IND loss + HOU loss OR
  4. MIA tie + IND loss or tie + CLE loss OR
  5. MIA tie + HOU loss or tie + CIN loss or tie OR
  6. MIA tie + CIN loss or tie + IND loss or tie

NFC
CLINCHED:
San Francisco 49ers (11-3) – NFC West division title
Dallas Cowboys (10-4) – playoff berth
Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) – playoff berth

DETROIT LIONS (10-4) at Minnesota (7-7); Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Detroit clinches NFC North division title with:

1. DET win or tie

Detroit clinches playoff berth with:

1. LAR loss or tie OR
2. SEA loss or tie

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (11-3) vs. Baltimore; Christmas (Monday), 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC

San Francisco clinches NFC’s No. 1 seed, lone first-round bye and homefield advantage with:

  1. SF win + PHI loss + DAL loss + DET loss