It has been presumed for much of the year that the Colts will part ways with coach Chuck Pagano after the season ends. Lost in that presumption is the question of whether Pagano would even want to stay.
By not accepting a one-year extension that was offered to him in the offseason, Pagano secured the ability to leave after the season, if he so chooses. Bob Kravitz of WTHR in Indianapolis seems to believe that, at this point, Pagano quite possibly would choose to leave, even if the Colts wanted him to stay.
Kravitz has promised via Twitter to write something explaining the situation in more detail. For now, he describes the situation within the organization as “very bad.”
Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star sheds some light on that dysfunction with an article pondering the future of G.M. Ryan Grigson. He too has been at the center of speculation regarding a possible termination of employment, but Grigson has a contract that runs through 2016 and, more importantly, there’s a sense that he has won the favor of owner Jim Irsay and the rest of the Irsay family.
Still, Holder reiterates that the rift between Grigson and Pagano is real. Which virtually guarantees that Pagano will be gone.
The broader question becomes whether Irsay is willing to neuter or scrap Grigson in order to get the coach Irsay wants. A guy like Nick Saban (if the presence of a franchise quarterback can lure Saban back to the NFL) would want Grigson to be pushed aside, at a minimum. Whether Irsay is willing to do whatever his top choice for head coach wants to do with Grigson will go a long way toward determining who the next coach of the Colts is.
But remember this. In 2002, Irsay kept Bill Polian when hiring Tony Dungy. Then again, Polian had a firmly-established track record at the time. Grigson’s four years on the job carry far more misses than hits when it comes to finding players to help the franchise fulfill Irsay’s high expectations.
