Since Kyle Shanahan arrived as coach and John Lynch was hired as G.M., the 49ers have built a great team. But they’ve made plenty of questionable decisions at the most important position on the roster.
From not evaluating Patrick Mahomes in 2017 (Shanahan was waiting for Kirk Cousins a year later) to trading for Jimmy Garoppolo during the 2017 season (so much for waiting for Cousins) to saying “no thanks” to Tom Brady in 2020 to freaking out and investing three first-round picks and a third-round pick in Trey Lance or Mac Jones (some still think Shanahan wanted Jones), it’s been a wild ride at quarterback for the 49ers.
And now, as they prepare to give Lance the keys to the offense on a full-time basis, with Garoppolo willingly assuming the status of guy who uses the weight room whenever he wants, the 49ers continue to cling to Garoppolo in the hopes that another team will trade for him. As Lynch said Thursday night during the Amazon pregame show, “If someone wants to come and offer us a whole lot for a really great quarterback, then we’re happy to listen.”
But no one has made an offer, of either a whole lot or a little bit. Anyone who trades for Garoppolo has to satisfy the 49ers with draft pick(s) or player(s) -- and the player as to the compensation he’ll receive.
Thus, there’s no interest. That’s something the 49ers have admitted. At this point, they’re simply waiting for a team to lose its starting quarterback for the season. Garoppolo is going along with that approach, because that specific outcome becomes the best path for him to get his full pay in the final year of his deal with the team.
Still, the 49ers know the end is coming. “Deadlines kind of force action on these sort of things,” Lynch said Thursday. There currently are three to watch.
Deadline No. 1: Tuesday, August 30, 4:00 p.m. ET.
That’s when rosters cut from 80 to 53. That’s when Shanahan and Lynch must decide whether to release a player they otherwise would keep, perhaps seeing him get claimed on waivers by another team. Even if the guy who loses his job so that the 49ers can continue to squat on Garoppolo slips through to the practice squad, the 49ers will be proceeding with one fewer player than they could be, in order to preserve the ongoing ability to trade the former starter.
Deadline No. 2: Saturday, September 10, 4:00 p.m. ET.
If Garoppolo remains on the roster when the clock strikes four in Manhattan the day before the first full Sunday of the regular season, Garoppolo’s non-guaranteed base salary becomes fully guaranteed, as a practical matter. That’s because all players with four or more years of service who are on the Week One active roster can, if later released, collect the balance of their unpaid base salary as “termination pay” under the Collective Bargaining Agreement.
For the 49ers, that’s a $25.62 million question, when taking Garoppolo’s $24.2 million base salary and adding in a check for the 17th game.
Deadline No. 3: Tuesday, November 1, 4:00 p.m. ET.
That’s the final deadline. The trade deadline. If the 49ers are willing to pay Garoppolo $1.42 million per week as of Week One, they’ll retain the ability to trade him if/when someone loses a starting quarterback during the season. (It also would provide the 49ers with insurance against Trey Lance suffering a season-ending injury -- and against the slim but theoretical possibility that Lance will be a disaster.)
Here’s the most important wrinkle as to the possibility that the 49ers would choose continue to keep Garoppolo through Week One in the hopes that, for example, there’s an eventual situation like the Jason Campbell’s broken collarbone two days before the deadline, which opened the door for a Carson Palmer trade from Cincinnati to Oakland in 2011. After the trade deadline, the 49ers could agree to release Garoppolo if he agrees to reduce his entitlement to termination pay.
It could come in the form of a deal made right after the trade deadline, like the Browns and OBJ did in 2021. Or the 49ers and Garoppolo could keep waiting, one week at a time, until an injury happens and the team wants Garoppolo. At that point, Garoppolo could agree to waive all of his remaining termination pay in order to wiggle free and sign with the new team that wants to put him on the field.
There’s also a chance that Garoppolo won’t care about securing his freedom after the trade deadline. As previously mentioned, it didn’t hurt Deshaun Watson to not play for a full season. Garoppolo could be content to rest on his most recent performances from 2021, make $25.62 million in 2022 without taking a single snap, and then become a free agent in March.
This leads back to the question contained in the headline to this item. Will the 49ers keep Garoppolo through Week One? Will they assume a $25.62 million obligation simply to retain the ability to trade him?
The decision could come down to whether the 49ers think there’s a decent chance they’ll actually need him. It would be a very expensive insurance policy, but if Lance either gets injured or clearly isn’t the guy, it could end up being money very well spent.
