The proliferation of seven-on-seven tournaments from high school through college has resulted in the emergence of plenty of very good quarterbacks. It also has accelerated the development of plenty of receivers, given that someone is catching all the passes that are being thrown.
As a result, the receiver position is in some ways becoming a lot like the running back position. With an increasing supply of great young players, veterans at the position could quickly find themselves devalued. The best veterans may have a harder time getting paid.
Against that backdrop, the money given to the best receivers has mushroomed in the past month, with players like Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill (pictured), and Stefon Diggs getting contracts worth roughly $25 million per year. Others, like 2019 second-rounders DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown, and Deebo Samuel (and 2019 third-rounder Terry McLaurin), are moving in that direction -- with $30 million annually not very far away.
(By the way, don’t get mad at the players for wanting or getting that money. The salary cap will be rocketing toward $300 million in the coming years. And for every dollar the players get, the owners keep one. Because there’s no transparency as to how much money the owners make -- other than the gold-played deck chairs on their titanic superyachts -- the players, whose contracts are available in chapter-and-verse detail, are the ones who end up being resented. It’s also easier for fans to resent players when embellished and/or fabricated numbers regarding their contracts are circulated by reporters who know they’re being lied to by agents who want to parlay news of big contracts into more clients. For example, ESPN continues to push the lie that the Diggs extension is worth $104 million over four years, when the truth is $8 million lower.)
The fact that the Packers and Chiefs traded Adams and Hill, respectively, shows that for some teams it makes sense to take the draft picks and to start over, with capable young receivers who are entering the draft each and every year. (Sure, once Adams had it in his head that he wanted to go to the Raiders, the Packers supposedly were willing to pay him. But why didn’t the Packer get there before he made it clear he wanted out?)
This dynamic of high-end receivers being traded could just be starting. Whenever a player like that emerges for a team that believes it can scout and select cheap, entry-level pass-catchers to replace those who have gotten more and more expensive, why not start over? That’s what plenty of teams have been doing at running back. The only difference at the receiver position is that other teams are willing to surrender multiple picks and pay market-level cash to the best receivers in the league. Other teams aren’t doing that for the best running backs.
Former NFL G.M. Scot McCloughan thinks that teams shouldn’t give huge money to receivers. He made his case to Mike Reiss of ESPN.com in an item regarding the chronic struggles of the Patriots to draft and develop receivers whom anyone would want to give a second contract.
“When you start throwing that money around, if it’s a quarterback, I get it,” McCloughan told Reiss. “If it’s a pass rusher, I get it. Guys that are impacting games all the time. With a receiver -- they’re important don’t get me wrong, but a good defensive coordinator can take them out of the game plan. . . . So now you’re lucky if he touches the ball 6-8 times a game . . . it’s just who’s going to impact the game the most.”
I won’t argue with a guy who has a strong track record of drafting and developing players. But doesn’t the mere presence of a great receiver affect a defense on every single play? The defense has to constantly account for him. The fact that the coordinator has to try to take him out of the game plan means that fewer players will be available to defend the other 10 men on the offense.
Clearly, the Dolphins, Raiders, and Bills disagree with McCloughan. The Packers and Chiefs, on the other hand, seem to be erring on the side of draft and develop.
It’s a trend that requires close monitoring, one contract or trade at a time, in the coming years. Especially as more great young receivers keep popping up -- and as great veteran receivers keep angling for the paydays that they deserve.
