T.J.

Hockenson

A meteoric draft season “riser,” former five-star recruit and 2023 national champion McCarthy (6’3/219) was infamously treated like a game manager by the Wolverines. When he got the opportunity to actually showcase his skills, however, he played efficient, mistake-free football. That includes under pressure, where McCarthy was both extremely accurate as well as aggressive, rocking Pro Football Focus’ “big time throw rate” metric. Although his passing motion contains a slight hitch, McCarthy throws a clean, straight ball. He does not loft his passes, but rather cuts them through the air. That being said, he will never be accused of having elite arm strength. It is simply adequate. That is the case for most of McCarthy’s game, but the Vikings are obviously hoping he will be the ultimate “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts” quarterback prospect. That includes as an athlete, where McCarthy tested well but was never a true dual-threat at Michigan. The floor is high. The ceiling is totally unknown. McCarthy has an elite pass-catching group in Minnesota, highlighted by the dominant Justin Jefferson, speedster Jordan Addison, and the ever-reliable T.J. Hockenson. In a pass-first Vikings offense, McCarthy could have immediate fantasy relevance if he takes the Week 1 starting job from veteran Sam Darnold.

Fresh off losing Kirk Cousins to the Falcons, the Vikings appear ready to go into 2024 with Darnold under center in what some have termed a “competitive rebuild” for Minnesota. The former first rounder, entering his age-26 season, has a sub-60 percent completion rate and 63 touchdowns alongside 56 interceptions over six NFL seasons. Darnold wasn’t half bad the last time he had a starting gig. In Carolina in 2022, Darnold was eighth in adjusted drop back EPA and first in completion rate over expected in six starts for the Panthers, showing flashes that made him such a highly-touted QB coming out of college. In Minnesota, he’ll likely function as a game manager with a prime objective of force feeding Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson.

Despite tearing his ACL and MCL in his right knee on December 24th, Hockenson delayed surgery for over a month to allow his MCL to heal. There were allegedly no complications from the surgery, but the typical recovery from the type of injury is nine months, which would put Hockenson back at the end of September or early in October. Hockenson’s recovery timeline can speed up or slow down based on the timing of various milestones, so it also becomes possible that the Vikings place him on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list if it seems like he won’t be ready for Week 1. That would make him ineligible to play until Week 5 at the earliest. Obviously, there are still months to go before we have a more firm grasp on his timeline, but the Vikings may need to plan to be without their star tight end for more than a few weeks.

The fact that Hockenson didn’t have surgery until the end of January makes it possible he begins the 2024 season on the physically unable to perform list. Either way, the veteran tight end begins his road to recovery today after suffering the devastating knee injury on Christmas Eve.

Now that what they feared the most has been confirmed, the Vikings will try to move on without Hockenson. Josh Oliver will step into Hockenson’s spot, but it won’t be easy shoes to fill. Hockenson ends his season with 95 receptions for 960 yards (both career-highs) and five touchdowns.

Fowler added, “Team hoping to be surprised by today’s MRI but bracing for damage.” It sounds like the Vikings are expecting to be without Hockenson for the rest of the season, even if they make the playoffs. We should get an update on his status in the coming days, but fantasy managers can assume he won’t suit up next week. Josh Oliver and Johnny Mundt will see more work in his absence. Both players caught exactly one pass in Week 16 and won’t rank as anything more than TE2s in Week 17.

Hockenson took a hit to the knee on a catch at the top of the third quarter and immediately went into the blue medical tent. He was ruled out shortly after leaving the game. K.J. Osborn came to life after Hockenson went down, catching two passes for 53 yards and a score on the same drive. With Jordan Addison also done for the day, Osborn will be forced to step up for the remainder of the game.

Hockenson had the clear top on-paper matchup against a Bengals defense that has struggled to defend in-line tight ends but was never able to fully establish a connection with the fourth starting quarterback he has played with this season, Nick Mullens. That was an interesting development considering Mullens ranks near the top of the league in tight end target rate throughout his career. Either way, the returns were not what fantasy managers had in mind when they sunk significant draft capital into the veteran tight end, particularly as the muted performance came in the first round of the fantasy playoffs.

Hockenson’s 22.9 percent target share led the team, though it didn’t mean much with Josh Dobbs struggling to make even the simplest throws before being benched for Nick Mullens in the fourth quarter. Hockenson made a couple critical catches down the stretch and would seem to benefit big time from Mullens under center. If Justin Jefferson misses time with a chest injury, Hockenson could return to a target-hog fantasy option in Week 15 and beyond.

Hockenson and the rest of the Minnesota offense struggled to get anything going against the Bears on Monday Night Football before the veteran tight end found the end zone on a crossing route to the middle of the end zone to give the Vikings their first lead of the game with just under six minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. It looked like the Vikings were going to hold on for an ugly win after recovering a Justin Fields fumble on the subsequent drive, but a quick three-and-out gave the ball back to the Bears and allowed them to set up a game-winning field goal with 10 seconds remaining. Either way, Hockenson continues to return elite fantasy value at a barren position with Joshua Dobbs under center, a welcome sight for fantasy managers that invested hefty capital in the veteran tight end.