Ranking the UEFA Champions League’s final 16, odds to win
We know the 16 teams left in the chase for the European Cup, a group which includes 17 of the last 18 Champions League finalists.
Our pals Robbie Earle and Robbie Mustoe broke down the odds for Premier League teams to win the crown (see video above) and we’re picking up what they’re putting down as revisit the UCL power rankings we posted prior to the group stage.
[ MORE: Who can PL teams draw in Round of 16? ]
Now we love the 2 Robbies breakdown, but let us bring our own take to the rankings.
Can we defy our pals at SportsBet? We’ve got a couple of quibbles...
UEFA Champions League power rankings (Pointsbet odds)
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16. Porto (+12500)
After allowing three goals to Man City at the Etihad on Matchday 1, allowed zero goals the rest of the group stage. Olympiacos isn’t an an attack force and neither is Marseille, but that’s a quality record.
15. Lazio (+6600)
It shows the depth of this Round of 16 that Lazio sits 15th of 16 teams. The Roman side hasn’t looked as strong in Serie A this season, either, but all it would take is a run of form to make Lazio feel just as imposing as a half-dozen of the teams in front of it.
14. Atalanta (+4000)
Might’ve lost badly to Liverpool at home but then handled the Reds at Anfield and won qualification to the knockout rounds by winning at Ajax. Waxed Lazio away during league play.
13. Borussia Monchengladbach (+8000)
Enter these rankings on a brutal run of form but any team with Marcus Thuram and Alassane Plea leading an attack with so many complementary pieces being arranged by Marco Rose can do damage on a given day. Ask Shakhtar, who beat Real Madrid twice but lost to Gladbach 6-0 at home and 4-0 away.
12. Sevilla (+4000)
A tournament team that hardened itself and burnished its credentials by beating Manchester United and Inter Milan during last season’s Europa League run. Julen Lopetegui is a good manager, too. But the zero goals scored against Chelsea plus the beating suffered against Bayern in the UEFA Super Cup have us leery of moving them up.
11. RB Leipzig (+3300)
The Julian Nagelsmann factor is real, and Leipzig has taken points off of Manchester United, Bayern, and PSG this season after dismissing Atletico Madrid from the Champions League last season. All of that is without Timo Werner.
10. Borussia Dortmund (+2000)
Erling Haaland is a force and BVB has difference makers at nearly every position. A bit young, but Marco Reus being healthy is something they haven’t had in ages and Mats Hummels is back to his very best.
9. Barcelona (+1500)
They have Lionel Messi, so there’s that, and he’s also on an incredibly unfortunate run where he’s underperforming his expected goals and assists by five. Still La Liga’s top team in terms of possession, shots per game, pass accuracy, dribbles, and fouls conceded.
8. Real Madrid (+1600)
Are they the team that lost to Shakhtar Donetsk twice or the team that took 10 of 12 points from Gladbach and Inter Milan? The club that dominated Barca at the Camp Nou, or the one that lost at home to Cadiz and Alaves? Can’t count on ‘em.
7. Atletico Madrid (+1800)
Atleti has some insane defensive stats this season, even for a Diego Simeone club. The La Liga leaders allowed four goals to Bayern Munich in a rout to start the Champions League group stage and two to Red Bull Salzburg on the second match day.
Bayern got one the second time they played and Salzburg was blanked. All told, Atleti has allowed 10 goals in 16 matches between Champions League and domestic outings including a stupid-looking two in 10 La Liga matches.
6. Chelsea (+1400)
Only City allowed fewer goals in the group stage than Chelsea’s two, and Frank Lampard’s Blues are also the second-stingiest team in Premier League (Spurs). And just wait until Timo Werner finds true comfort in Chelsea blue.
5. Liverpool (+600)
This has nothing to do with anything but the loss of Virgil van Dijk. Take the most important player away from anyone in the top four -- KDB, Ronaldo, Messi, Neymar -- and they’d drop just as far if not farther.
4. Juventus (+1400)
Needed seven saves of Lionel Messi from Gianluigi Buffon to keep Barca off the board and claim the group. Cristiano Ronaldo remains lethal finisher and Juve is deep everywhere.
3. Manchester City (+450)
Only sitting behind two sides who cast aside UCL demons last season, something City has to do under Guardiola. But the City attack is as deep as anyone and the defensive depth is there. If Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus can find health and form, perhaps City should be 1B.
2. Paris Saint-Germain (+900)
Last season’s finalists haven’t been unstoppable in Ligue 1 this season but there were COVID-19 concerns. Thomas Tuchel remains a good tactician, having taken 2-1 losses to Manchester United to RB Leipzig and turning them into 1-0 and 3-1 wins in the second meeting. Defense post-Thiago Silva is the big question, but when Kylian Mbappe and Neymar are at their best, it’s often time to call ballgame.
1. Bayern Munich (+275)
The reigning champions are super deep, though this is a second-straight season with a Bundesliga title race that’s remained competitive this far into the season.