There are so many questions to answer as the Big Ten women’s basketball season enters its final week. Who will win the second matchup between UCLA and USC – and with it, the regular season title? Can Ohio State rejoin the ranks of the elite? Is there a dark horse that could make more noise than expected in March (namely, Illinois)?
The most important questions are answered in postseason play. That doesn’t mean the regular season doesn’t have anything to offer; after all, it sets teams up for their postseason positioning, and matchups can make all the difference on the biggest stages.
Here are the current projections for team seedings:
No. 2 UCLA Bruins
Projected seed: 1
This week’s schedule: at Wisconsin Wed. (Peacock), vs. USC Sat.
No. 4 USC Trojans
Projected seed: 2
This week’s schedule: at UCLA Sat.
Assuming UCLA defeats Wisconsin, the winner of this game will be slated on the 1-seed line. The only thing that would change that is an upset loss in the Big Ten Women’s Basketball Tournament or – depending on results in other conference tournaments – a loss in a rubber match in Indianapolis.
Don’t take this as an assumption that UCLA will win, either. UCLA has the better overall resume right now, has the homecourt advantage and looked like the better team for large swaths of their first matchup against the Trojans. But JuJu Watkins is the player in the country most capable of winning a game by herself (as she proved the first time around against the Bruins), and she has plenty of talent backing her up. It’s another toss-up.
No. 12 Ohio State Buckeyes
Projected seed: 4
This week’s schedule: vs. Michigan State Thu., at Maryland Sun.
The Buckeyes got back on track with a 52-point win over Purdue Sunday after a five-game rough patch that saw three road losses and two overtime home wins over seemingly inferior teams. Ohio State better believe it has its mojo back, because vs. Michigan State and at Maryland to close the season is no joke.
No. 23 Michigan State Spartans
Projected seed: 5
This week’s schedule: at Ohio State Wed., vs. Minnesota Sat.
If the Spartans have a chance to unseat Ohio State as the third-best team in the conference. A road win in Columbus would be a major statement, but the NET Rankings say Michigan State is right there with the Buckeyes. If they do get that win, though, the Spartans cannot overlook a good Minnesota team in the finale.
No. 19 Maryland Terrapins
Projected seed: 6
This week’s schedule: at Indiana Thu. (Peacock), vs. Ohio State Sun.
The Terps haven’t played Indiana yet this season and lost to Ohio State in their first matchup, so it would be fair to feel a little uneasy about this closing stretch. Maryland has a better Quad 1 record than the other Big Ten teams in their tier group (Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan), so this is a squad that should feel confident in the biggest games.
Michigan Wolverines
Projected seed: 6
This week’s schedule: vs. Iowa Wed., at Illinois Sun.
There is no doubt the Wolverines get the job done against inferior competition. After all, Michigan has just one loss in non-Quad 1 games. That 3-7 record against Quad 1 teams, though, does not bode well for postseason play. You have to beat the best to be the best when the games truly matter. That’s something Michigan has yet to prove it can do consistently.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Projected seed: 8
This week’s schedule: vs. Michigan Sun.
The Illini got a rude awakening from the conference’s best, seeing their eight-game win streak turn into consecutive double-digit losses on the L.A. road trip. Still, it isn’t like Illinois didn’t belong on the same floor with UCLA and USC. The finale against Michigan, in front of the Champaign faithful, is a great chance for Illinois to affirm its place in the conference.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Projected seed: 8
This week’s schedule: at Michigan Wed., vs. Wisconsin Sun. (Peacock)
The Hawkeyes lost both their games this week but move up a seed from last week’s projection. Why? They took Ohio State to overtime in Columbus and lost to UCLA by two at home. Iowa is perfectly capable of beating any team on any given day – just ask USC. It just doesn’t have the star power it did in recent years.
Indiana Hoosiers
Projected seed: 9
This week’s schedule: vs. Maryland Thu. (Peacock), at Purdue Sun. (Peacock)
“A win against Ohio State, Michigan State and/or Maryland in the next three would go a long way for a Hoosiers team looking to cement its place in the field.” That’s what I wrote last week. Indiana already got one against Ohio State. It couldn’t take down Michigan State, but now comes another homecourt opportunity against the Terrapins.
Oregon Ducks
Projected seed: 10
This week’s schedule: at Washington Sun.
Oregon’s recent win over Minnesota gives them the edge over the Golden Gophers, although they are on the same seed line. The Ducks went on to lose in overtime at Nebraska and next face Washington for the second time in just over two weeks. That first game was a one-point home victory for Oregon.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Projected seed: 10
This week’s schedule: vs. Washington Wed., at Michigan State Sat.
Remember how Michigan lacks contender credibility because of its 3-7 Quad 1 record? Well, the Golden Gophers are 0-6 in such games and 2-2 in Quad 2 games. They are a perfect 18-0 in Quad 3 and Quad 4 games, but those aren’t the level of teams that make it far in the Big Ten or NCAA tournaments.
Washington Huskies
Projected seed: 11
This week’s schedule: at Minnesota Wed., vs. Oregon Sun.
The Huskies have the opportunity to stake their claim to a tournament spot with performances against other bubble teams to close the regular season. They already crushed Nebraska in Lincoln; now they get a Minnesota team that has struggled against strong competition and an Oregon team the Huskies nearly beat in Eugene already.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Projected seed: 11 (Last Four In)
This week’s schedule: at Northwestern Sun.
Assuming they beat Northwestern Sunday, the Cornhuskers will have a solid chance to make the field. Losing by 21 at home to another bubble team in Washington was certainly not helpful, though. It can never hurt to go into Selection Sunday coming off a few conference tournament wins.
