The PGA Tour returns to Olympia Fields Country Club for this week’s BMW Championship.
Last seen at the 2020 edition of this event, we don’t have a lot of history to lean on. That being said, that one-year sample did paint a very specific story in regard to the recipe for success at Olympia Fields.
With tight fairways and thick rough, it was power that reigned supreme on page one of the leaderboard. With that in mind, I will lean on power and baseline skill to navigate the betting board this week. Here are a few notable matchups that stood out to me.
Cameron Young over Lucas Glover - Tournament Matchup (-140)
It’s rare for me to take on such a big favorite in the matchup market but there is so much to like here.
We know Glover is riding in off back-to-back wins but regression is likely right around the corner. When I look at adjusted strokes gained per round over the last two years, Young edges out Glover by 1.14 strokes per round.
They’ve played in 14 crossover events this season and Young has gotten the better of Glover in eight of them (8-4-2).
Lastly, this week’s course heavily emphasized power during the 2020 BMW Championship and if that’s even remotely true again this time around then Young has a huge advantage.
Add it all up, and I’m willing to drink the juice on the week-long matchup.
Tony Finau over Byeong Hun An - Tournament Matchup (-110)
I had to wipe off my monitor when I saw this line, just in case there was a smudge causing me to read it wrong.
Sure, Finau is not posting results up to his lofty standards this summer but he’s just one start removed from a top-10 finish at the 3M Open.
Looking at the head-to-head results of these two golfers over the course of the season, Finau has the edge of An and it’s not particularly close (9 to 4). That would indicate this line should be in the -200s range, not a coin flip like the current odds suggest.
Finau is 50th (of 50) in the field this week when it comes to strokes gained putting over the last six months. As recently as May, his 50-round moving average was more than half a shot better than Tour average when it came to putting. The Big Samoan will figure it out again on the greens eventually and a return to Olympia Fields could be the perfect cure for that. He gained nearly six strokes putting during the 2020 BMW Championship at Olympia Fields which remains one of the 10 best putting performances of his career.
