Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his three favorite games on the February 1st slate, including a Big East battle between Providence and Xavier, plus Army versus Lehigh and Murray State against Belmont.
Providence at Xavier (-4): O/U 155.0
Xavier’s Zach Freemantle is out for at least four weeks, so the Musketeers will be without the highest usage player (24.1%), leading rebounder (8.1) and second leading scorer (15.2).
Providence is a smaller team this season with two players 6-foot-7 and 6-foot-8 in the starting lineup, so this is an opportunity to take the Big East back with Freemantle out.
The Friars have won three-straight games versus DePaul, Butler and Villanova, so not that impressive.
Xavier is coming off a road loss to Creighton and has a two-game home stand versus Providence and St. John’s. The Musketeers are 11-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming against Indiana back in November.
Xavier likes to score inside, getting 59.6% of their points from two in conference action, but at home, they have struggled much more than on the road.
The Musketeers are shooting 35.7% from three, 54.7% from two and 71.4% from the free-throw line at home in conference action compared to 41.2% from three, 53.3% from two and 75.3% from the free-throw line on the road.
Xavier doesn’t force turnovers and has bottom of the league defensive metrics in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage, two-point and three-point percentage. I can only assume Freemantle being out will hurt Xavier defensively and negatively impact inside scoring opportunities.
Providence has an opportunity here to get a signature win and the Friars have a full week off after this game, so expect a full-out effort.
I played Providence at +4 (-115) and sprinkled the ML at +150. I would play Providence down to +2 on the spread.
Pick: Providence +4 (0.5u)
Belmont at Murray State (-1.5): O/U 144.5
This will be a revenge game at home for Murray State.
Belmont won 80-65 at home, going 12-of-29 from three (41.4%) and 56.7% from two-point range against Murray State. The Racers will return a key player, Kenny White, who missed the previous matchup versus Belmont.
White played 26 minutes in the previous game and he has scored at least 9 points or grabbed five-plus rebounds in six of the past eight games.
Murray State ranks 1st in offensive turnover percentage (15.9%) and top three in offensive rebounding percentage (29.8%), free-throw percentage (76.7%) and offensive efficiency (105.7) in MVC action.
The Racers score 56% of their points from two and 20.6% of points from the free-throw line, both tops in the MVC. Luckily for Murray State, Belmont allows 60.7% of points from two, which is the most in conference play.
Even better for Murray State, Belmont scores 40% of their points from three with 38.1% from beyond the arc in MVC (1st). However, Murray State’s three-point defense is 44th nationally (30.8%) and 1st in MVC (31.7%), so they counter Belmont well in this rematch.
Give me Murray State on the ML at -110 odds. I would go out to -130.
Pick: Murray State ML (1u)
Army at Lehigh (-1.5): O/U 144.5
Army burnt us a week ago and I waited patiently for my spot to make our money back and it’s here.
Army beat Lehigh 80-78 at home on Dec. 30 and since then, Lehigh is 8-1 compared to Army at 5-4. This is a revenge game for Lehigh and they’re hot.
Lehigh has posted stellar defenisve numbers in Patriot League action, ranking top three in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, three-point and two-point percentage -- At home, Lehigh is top two in Patriot League in all of those categories.
The Mountain Hawks of Lehigh have won four-straight home games and all four wins were by double-digits. Lehigh is a terrific free-throw shooting team (78.6%) compared to Army (69.1%) and at home, that may come in handy in a tight game.
The Black Knights of Army lost three-straight games before their 66-55 win at home versus Holy Cross, which was the lowest-ranked opponent they have beat all season (in DI).
Lehigh scored at least 72 points in six out of the past eight games, while Army is 4-8 on the year when they permit 70-plus points. The Mountain Hawks play at the second quickest offensive and defense tempo in the Patriot League and scored 78 points at Army earlier in the season. If Lehigh scores 70-plus points again, chances are Lehigh wins.
With Lehigh playing at such a quick tempo and having the better defense, I like the chances the Mountain Hawks avenge that loss and beat the Black Knights at home. The Mountain Hawks have won four of the past five at home against Army.
Give me Lehigh on the ML at -130 odds. I’d risk 1.5u out to -150 to win 1u.
Pick: Lehigh ML (Risk 1.5u)
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