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How to bet the LOADED College Basketball slate!

Donta Scott

Donta Scott

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down the Saturday slate starting with Penn State at Maryland, Florida vs Vanderbilt and a Ivy League game between Penn, Harvard, plus much much more! I broke these games down by tip-off times.

12 PM ET GAMES

Penn State at Maryland (-8): O/U 133.5

We are back in The Big Ten as this conference has been dominated by the home team all year.

I expect it to continue here. Maryland has been awesome at home this season, going 12-1 with the only loss coming to UCLA. The Terps are 6-0 at home in conference play and shooting 83.2% from the line (1st), forcing a turnover 19.1% of the time (3rd), along with a 35.1% offensive rebounding percentage (3rd).

Penn State does not force turnovers on the road, ranking bottom-five in the country (359th), as well as 359th in offensive rebounding percentage (15.4%) and a 41% three-point defense (349th).

Maryland has struggled from three this season (30.2%, 336th), but that number is slightly up in conference play at home (32.7%). However, versus Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin, the three other worst three-point defenses in Big Ten play, Maryland shot 20-of-51 from three (39.2%), so there is hope.

The last five meetings between the Nittany Lions and Terps at Maryland have seen the home team go 4-1 with wins of six or more in all four victories. The 2021 loss to Penn State was the final game of the regular season and Maryland blew a 33-23 halftime lead and a 29-13 lead with less than four minutes in the first half.

2022: Maryland 67, PSU 61

2021: PSU 66, Maryland 61

2019: Maryland 66, PSU 59

2018: Maryland 75, PSU 69

2015: Maryland 70, PSU 64

This season, Penn State is 1-6 in true road games this season, including five-straight losses topped off by Nebraska.

The Nittany Lions have lost three-straight games overall entering this contest. PSU lost by 20 at Purdue, by 9 at Nebraska, then by 5 at home in OT three days ago to Wisconsin. PSU trailed almost the entire game, so that was a max effort to get back into that game before hitting the road.

Maryland is in a bounce back spot after losing on the road at Michigan State breaking the Terps four-game winning streak. We took MSU in that game versus Maryland. We are on Maryland here.

I don’t like backing big favorites on Saturday’s but the Big Ten is a great conference to back the home teams and Penn State is trending in the wrong direction, plus a much worse road team.

Give me the Terps at -8 (-110) out to -9.

Pick: Maryland -8 (-110)

Providence (-5) at St. John’s: O/U 151.0

This one is simple. St. John’s is about to be a weekly fade. This St. John’s team has lost 11 of the past 14 games and has no chance of making the NCAA Tournament.

Providence, on the other hand, well they are winners in four of the past five with a lone two-point loss in OT at Xavier. We took the Friars +4.5 there and will back Providence here.

In road games, Providence has the nation’s 11th-best three-point defense (28.4%), 20th-ranked offensive rebounding percentage (34.9%) and adjusted offensive efficiency (113.9).

Those three areas should be enough to put away St. John’s who turn the ball over 20.4% at home in conference play (11th), rank 9th in defensive rebounding percentage (31.3%) and hit the three at 40% (1st).

Providence held Georgetown to 3-of-15 (20%) from three, Xavier to 8-of-23 (34.8%) and Villanova to 6-of-23 (26.1%) in the past three games, so I expect St. John’s to see that 40% regress today. The Friars will have a ton of second-chance points and dictate the pace of this game.

Take Providence -5 (-110) out to -6 as they should roll in this matchup. Providence only won by three at home versus St. John’s earlier this season and won three-straight overall versus the Red Storm.

Pick: Providence -5 (1u)

2 PM ET GAMES

Rutgers at Illinois (-5): O/U 133.5

Rutgers has always been an awful road team, but this season the Scarlet Knights rank last in the country in Haslametric’s Away From Home rating.

That basically breaks down teams offensive ratings and other stats at home and on. the road, comparing the two.

Anyways, Rutgers is 2-6 in true road and neutral court games with a one-point upset over Purdue and a three-point win at Northwestern. They have lost on a neutral court or at Temple, Miami (FL), Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa and Indiana this season. Rutgers went 4-11 in road games and neutral courts last season.

In previous meetings between Illinois and Rutgers at Illinois or on a neutral court, the Illini have owned the Scarlett Knights. Illinois won those games by scores of:

2021: Illinois 86, Rutgers 51

2021: Illinois 90, Rutgers 68

2020: Illinois 54, Rutgers 51

2019: Illinois 99, Rutgers 94

2018: Illinois 91, Rutgers 60

Illinois also has a serious rest advantage. The Illini last played on Feb. 4, losing at Iowa by two points compared to Rutgers who played on Feb. 7 at Indiana, a 6-point loss.

This is the first meeting of the two teams this year and Rutgers is also without Mawot Mag (7.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG), who missed the Indiana game. Rutgers largest lead in that road game was 2-0.

Rutgers owns a 41.4% three-point defense on the road (355th) and make their two’s at 45.7% (283rd). Both teams offensive rebound very well, but without Mag, I think Illinois can win the rebounding battle, as well as the turnover battle. Illinois is 34th at home in forcing turnovers (23%) compared to Rutgers turning the ball over 19.4% on the road (208th).

Illinois is 11-2 at home and has to continue stacking wins there if they want to make the Tournament. Give me the home team with rest. Illinois -5 (-110) out to -5. This opened at -2.5 for a hot 30 minutes.

Pick: Illinois -5 (1u)

Alabama (-2.5) at Auburn: O/U 152.5

Alabama has not lost an SEC game yet this season and how perfect would today be?

It is a road game for a undefeated conference team that’s ranked on the road versus a non-ranked opponent who has lost four of the past five games with its only win versus Georgia... the books want you to take Alabama today but that is my opinion.

The Crimson Tide look too easy, but going on the road at their rival Auburn will be challenging. The Tigers are ranked 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (93.1) and top five nationally in defensive effective field goal percentage (43.6%) and three-point defense (27.2%).

Alabama loves chucking three-pointers. Three’s make up 37.8% of Alabama’s points (21st-most) and that goes up to 41% in SEC play, which is first. Auburn should limit Alabama from three and you know the Tigers fans are going to have that place rocking.

Auburn is 11-1 at home this season with its lone loss to Texas A&M (79-63). Auburn has elite defensive numbers at home and great offensive rebounding numbers (36%, 27th). They will get second-chance points and contain Alabama’s sometimes hectic offense.

Alabama also has a date with Tennessee up next that could determine the SEC Regular Season Title, so a slight look-ahead could come here. Give me Auburn +2.5 (-110) as I think they can get the upset today.

Pick: Auburn +2.5 (1u)

Clemson at North Carolina (-7): O/U 146.5

If you have been betting UNC this year, you probably hate them, I know I do.

The Tar Heels are 7-16-1 ATS this season and get a -7 favorite tag against a Clemson team that has the rest advantage. Clemson last played on Feb. 4 and are coming off back-to-back losses, which puts an extra emphasis on this game.

The Tigers lost to Boston College and Miami (FL), while the Tar Heels have lost three-straight games to Pitt, Duke and Wake Forest. UNC lost four-straight games earlier in the season and their defense appears to be back to that form.

Clemson is 4-3 in true road games and 6-5 with neutral court game included, so a winning record away from home. The Tigers have a stellar two-point defense on the road (42.8%, 9th) and make free-throws at a 82.1% clip (3rd). With a top 50 defense, making free-throws and facing an inflated line on UNC, I like Clemson here.

The Tar Heels score almost 53% of their points from two in conference play (4th) and struggle to make threes at 29.1% (last). Fade UNC and give me Clemson +7 (-110) down to +6. I think they can win outright.

Pick: Clemson +7 (1u)

Penn at Harvard (-1.5): O/U 138.5

You probably weren’t expecting this but I wasn’t expecting to attend this game, but here we are, just living life!

This is a home revenge spot for Harvard as they lost to Penn on Jan. 28, 83-68. The Crimson are on a three-game losing streak, so they desperately need a victory, especially after dropping two-straight home games on this three-game home-stand.

On the other side, the Penn Quakers have won four-straight games by six or more points, yet they are the underdog here. Two of Harvard’s three home losses in Ivy League play have come by a combined five points, so their 2-3 home record could easily be 4-1.

The Crimson play much better defense at home, ranking second in Ivy League for defensive effective field goal percentage (49.4%) and first in two-point defensive percentage (47.9%).

Penn gets 50.9% of its points from two in conference play (3rd), so Harvard could neutralize the Quakers offense. Plus, Penn turns the ball over 20.6% of the time on the road in Ivy League play and a 30% defensive rebounding percentage (7th out of 8 teams).

Harvard is a quality offensive rebounding team at home with 29.9% (2nd) and makes their free-throws (73%, 3rd) in conference play and should win the turnover battle.

Harvard has lost three-straight overall versus Penn, including a 78-74 home loss last year. Before that home loss, Harvard won eight-straight home meetings versus Penn dating back to 2013. The Ivy League didn’t have any games in 2021 due to COVID, so last year was a scrap in that conference.

Give me the Crimson on the ML at -125 odds and if you see me on TV at the game, it’s probably because I am rooting my heart out for the home team.

Pick: Harvard ML (1u)

3:30 PM ET GAME

Vanderbilt at Florida (-9): O/U 139.5

Vanderbilt is coming off a high in their previous game beating Tennessee on a buzzer-beating three-pointer to give the Commodores back-to-back wins for the first time in 10 games (Dec. 30 - Jan. 3).

Florida is coming off consecutive losses, both on the road at Kentucky and Alabama. At home, the Gators are 4-1 in conference play with four-straight wins of seven or more points.

This is a letdown spot for Vandy coming off that win and going on the road to Gainesville. Vandy is 2-5 in true road games with two-point and three-point wins at Temple and Georgia.

At Florida, Vanderbilt has struggled historically and over the past five trips to Gainesville, Vanderbilt is 0-5. The Commodores defense finished with a 96.1 adjusted efficiency in conference road play last year. This year, well that number has skyrocketed to 108.6, second-worst in the SEC.

2022: Florida 61, Vandy 42

2021: Florida 78, Vandy 71

2020: Florida 84, Vandy 66

2019: Florida 66, Vandy 57

2017: Florida 81, Vandy 74

The Gators should not have many issues scoring on Vanderbilt, who’s allowed 85, 77, 82, 72 and 101 points in five conference road games for 83.4 points per game allowed! Florida scored at least 73 points in three of the past four home games with the only Under versus Tennessee (67 points in a win).

I like Florida -9 (-110) and think they can out to an early lead and pull away.

Pick: Florida -9 (1u)

6:00 PM ET GAME

Indiana at Michigan (-3): O/U 144.0

We are back to another Big Ten home team and it’s an ugly one.

Michigan opened as -1 and -1.5 point favorite and we’ve watched this one continue to grow. The Wolverines have won three-straight and are attempting to turn their season around. While the wins came against Northwestern, Ohio State and Nebraska, you could see the confidence come back to this Michigan team -- all three wins came by 8 or more.

Indiana has been a team I’ve loved to back lately but this seems like a letdown spot for the Hoosiers. Indiana has won seven of the past eight games and the last time they had an underdog tag was on the road at Maryland and Indiana lost. We were on Maryland. Indiana has won two-straight big games over Purdue and Rutgers.

Last Saturday, Indiana beat Purdue at home and we loved that spot for them versus the No. 1 team in the country. This Saturday, I feel Michigan is the play and Indiana is a fade. The casual bettor will take Indiana today.

Michigan doesn’t turn the ball over (14.7%, 7th), has size (23rd in height) and are 6-1 at home in conference games this year ranking top five in nearly every category. Give me the Wolverines on the ML at -145 odds out to -150.

Pick: Michigan ML (1u)

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