Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his favorite College Basketball bets, including Kentucky at Florida and Armando Bacot’s rebounding prop versus Notre Dame.
Kentucky (-2.5) at Florida: O/U 140.5
Kentucky will go for the sweep as they visit Florida on this small Wednesday card.
Florida will be without Colin Castleton, who broke his hand and is out for the season. The Gators big man recorded 25 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 blocks in 37 minutes versus the Wildcats earlier this season.
Kentucky beat Florida 72-67 at home this season despite Castleton’s huge game. Without Castleton, Florida scored 65 points on the road at Arkansas and lost by 19.
Florida shot 4-of-21 from three (19%) and were out-rebounded 40-25 against Arkansas. Kentucky is the best rebounding team in the SEC, ranking first in both offensive and defensive percentages, plus the Wildcats rank No. 3 in offensive rebounding and 67th defensively in the country. Oscar Tshiebwe and Jacob Toppin should feast.
The Gators are shooting below 30% from three in conference play and rarely forces turnovers (16.4%). Florida allows 57.7% of opponents points to come from two-point range in SEC play, which is Kentucky’s strength (56.9%).
The Wildcats should own the boards in this meeting and historically, Kentucky has won eight of the previous nine meetings against Florida and three-straight in Gainesville. I played the Wildcats ML at -130 odds. I’d go to -150.
Pick: kentucky ML (1u)
Armando Bacot O/U 10.5 Rebounds vs. Notre Dame
Let’s roll with our second player prop of the week after Tre Mitchell of West Virginia rewarded us on Monday.
Armando Bacot of North Carolina has a positive matchup versus Notre Dame in a must-win spot for the Tar Heels.
Notre Dame ranks 14th out of 15 in the ACC for offensive rebounding percentage (20.9%) and 4th in defensive rebounding parentage (25.3%). The Irish play at the second-slowest tempo overall and offensively in ACC play, so expect a lot of half-court sets, positively impacting Bacot’s rebounding potential.
Looking over Bacot’s history versus Notre Dame, the UNC big man recoded 13, 17, 13, 10, 10 and 8 rebounds over six meetings since his freshmen campaign with the Tar Heels. Over the last three meetings, Bacot posted 13 or more rebounds in all three for a 14.3 rebounds per game average.
Bacot is 4-2 to the Over 10.5 rebounds in the past six games and 10-5 to the Over versus ACC opponents this season. The Richmond, VA product is 7-4 to the Over in the last 11 games with 34 or more minutes played.
I played Bacot Over 10.5 rebounds at -140 odds on DraftKings. I would go a 0.5 unit at Over 11.5 rebounds for +100 or better. This opened around -105 and -110 at most books.
Pick: Armando Bacot Over 10.5 Rebounds (1u)
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