Vaughn Dalzell beaks down how to bet Kansas versus Texas and Miami versus Duke in Big 12 and ACC league action.
Duke at Miami (-3): O/U 147.5
This is a revenge game for Miami as the Hurricanes lost 68-66 at Duke on Jan. 21.
We had Miami +6/+5.5 in that game and it was competitive throughout with multiple lead changes. Miami enters this meeting with the 10th-ranked adjusted efficiency on offense and has done practically done everything well outside of defensive rebounding (258th).
Duke’s main strength on offense is rebounding as they rank second in the country (37.9%), so expect another competitive outing as the Blue Devils between the two.
The Blue Devils are 2-4 in true road games this season with victories over Boston College and Georgia Tech. Duke lost to Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson and Virginia Tech on the road. The Blue Devils have yet to win back-to-back true road games this season.
Since 2021, Miami and Duke have met four times and split the series 2-2. Miami beat Duke at home 76-74 and on the road 77-75. Duke won on a neutral court during the ACC Tournament 80-76 and the most recent meeting this season at Duke 68-66. All four of those matchups finished four points or fewer for the winning team.
In ACC action, Duke turns the ball over 18.4% of the time and forces a turnover 14.3% of the time, both bottom-three ranks in the league. The Blue Devils are barely shooting 50% for effective field goal percentage and ranks 246th nationally with a 32.6% three-point percentage.
Miami owns the fourth-best offensive efficiency in the country when at home (119.9) and Duke’s defense is 90th in efficiency on the road (99.2) compared to No. 25 at home (91.6).
Duke is coming off a high of beating North Carolina at home and extending their undefeated record at home, plus they got revenge for Coach K.
Now, the Blue Devils get one day off and go on the road to face a Miami team hasn’t lost a home game (12-0). Last year, Duke lost to Virginia after playing North Carolina and the same happened in 2021 versus Notre Dame.
Duke was the home team in both of those losses to Virginia and Notre Dame. Now, they’re the road team after the UNC game, which is frightening considering Duke is 2-4 away from home this season.
I grabbed the Hurricanes ML at -150 odds on DraftKings and FanDuel. I’d rather live bet then do the -3 for 1u because these contests have been so tight between the two teams.
Pick: Miami ML (1u)
Texas at Kansas (-3): O/U 145.5
We have another top 10 matchup on our hands and this one should be a dandy.
Kansas has won nine of the last 10 meetings at home versus Texas and is searching for a bounce back spot at home after losing at Iowa State on Saturday.
Texas has won two-straight games over Baylor and Kansas State as they are proving their still a contender with interim head coach Rodney Terry.
Getting off to a quick start will be the key for Texas. The Longhorns are 6-3 when trailing at halftime under Terry and Kansas is an insane atmosphere. The Longhorns trailed at Kansas State on Saturday and used a huge second-half comeback to steal the road victory.
Making a second-half comeback in back-to-back road games will be challenging if a slow start occurs for Texas.
Kansas scored 49, 38, 29 and 36 first half points in the past four home games. The Jayhawks rank 24th in the nation with 38.0 first half points per game, while the Longhorns average 32.4 first half points per game on the road (139th).
Texas is shooting an abysmal 26.2% from three on the road in conference action, plus turning the ball over 20.4% of the time. The Longhorns have gotten by a top-three ranked BIG 12 defense and there’s no doubt Texas will present issues for the Jayhawks in their first meeting of the season.
Kansas allows 37.3% from three at home, which is a concern if Texas gets clicking from beyond the arc, but I doubt it. Beyond that, the Jayhawks have stellar three-point offense (37.9%) and offensive turnover percentage (16.1%), but there’s one major stat I like about Kansas.
The Jayhawks record an assist on 61% of their buckets, which is 11th in the nation and leads Big 12 play. If Kansas is moving the ball at home, they’ll find quality shots against Texas.
Kansas has one home loss this season (TCU) and in the last home outing, the Jayhawks handled Kansas State 90-78 from start to finish. Texas won three of the past four overall meetings versus Kansas, so the Jayhawks will want to put a stop to this madness in a series they own 46-12.
I risked 2 units on the Jayhawks ML at -165 odds on DraftKings to win 1.2 units or you can play the -3 for 1u out to -4. I think Kansas wins and should cover unless Texas has another dramatic comeback in them.
I like Kansas first half too but we have to wait for odds to come out. This ML will close around -200 and the line should close at -4 or -4.5.
Pick: Kansas ML (Risk 2u)
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