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Richmond (-7.5) at Fordham: O/U 141.5
Fordham did us dirty in the previous game that we bet on the Rams. Antonio Daye Jr. hit a game-winner with four seconds left versus Duquesne, then left the program that same night. Come on, man!
In the next game, Fordham lost to Saint Louis, 63-45, went 25% from three (5/20), and grabbed 26 total rebounds.
Daye was Fordham’s leading scorer at 16.8 points per game, plus ranked first in assists (3.3), second in steals (1.4) and fourth in rebounds per game (3.6).
Without him, things could get ugly. Richmond has covered six straight games as a true road favorite and seven of the past nine (77.8%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
During that stretch as true road favorites, the Spiders are 8-1 (88.9%) on the ML, winning seven straight.
In this A-10 series, Richmond has won nine out of the last 10 meetings but failed to cover in four straight. While that is alarming, this is a great opportunity to break that streak versus Fordham because of what Richmond does as favorites, especially away from home.
Richmond has won 15 consecutive meetings versus Fordham as the favorite and owns a 9-6 ATS mark in that span (60%).
In the past six meetings as a road favorite at Fordham, the Spiders are 4-2 ATS in the last six, winning all six.
Oh yea, there are no fans allowed at Rose Hill Gym for Fordham because of COVID -- so this a little easier to back Richmond and expect the Spiders to pull away or stop the Rams’ runs.
As a home underdog in conference play, Fordham is 4-6 ATS (40%) and 3-7 on the ML (30%) in its last 10 games.
The Rams have only played one home game as an underdog this season and that came versus Duquesne as a +1 to +2 dog -- Fordham won by one, thanks to Daye.
Without Daye, this team has to muster offense, and only Darius Quisenberry (16.4 PPG) and Chuba Ohams (14.1 PPG) offer some scoring. One or both players could easily be negated as they combined for 23 of Fordham’s 45 points last week.
Richmond is an experienced team with a 74.2% minute continuity from a season ago (26th) and 2.49 years of average experience (33rd), per Kenpom. Fordham only brought back 21.7% of its minutes from last year (325th) and took a major hit with Daye’s departure, a former FIU transfer.
Richmond ranks sixth in the country with a 13.9% turnover percentage, and that has dropped to 11.9% in conference play (four games).
This should be the Spiders easiest A-10 game thus far, coming on the road, in an empty arena.
I would play this out to -8.5 but prefer to get the -7.5 to -8.
Pick: Richmond -7.5 (1u)
Wisconsin (-3) at Northwestern: O/U 140.0
Pending major injury news/availably on Pete Nance for this game -- I will be on the Badgers ML (-150).
If Pete Nance of Northwestern is out, I will play Wisconsin ML.
If Pete Nance is playing for Northwestern, I will sit this out and live bet or enjoy Richmond hoops.
Wisconsin has won six straight meetings versus Northwestern, seven of the last eight and three straight at Northwestern, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Northwestern is coming off an upset over Michigan State at MSU, which sets them up perfect for a letdown spot at home, especially if Nance is out. Wait for the confirmation news and grab them on the ML or out to -3.
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