Vaughn Dalzell breaks down six teams that he believes can be a first-round exit in the NCAA Tournament this year.
TEAMS THAT COULD BE FIRST-ROUND EXITS:
CLEMSON (19-7) -- During conference action on the road, Clemson ranks fourth or worse in offensive efficiency, offensive rebounding percentage, offensive three-point percentage and both offensive and defensive turnover percentage. The Tigers do a lot of things bad against conference opponents and sport a 6-6 road/neutral court record. If they get matched up with a team that can speed them up like North Carolina or Wake Forest did, then Clemson is toast.
DUKE (18-8) -- The Blue Devils are really struggling with turnovers this season. After ranking top 125 in the country every season since 2008, the Blue Devils rank 235th with a 19.1% offensive turnover percentage. On defense, they rank 247th (17.2%). Plus on the road and neutral court games, Duke is 5-8 and shooting 28.5% from three (342nd). Don’t trust the Blue Devils because of the name on their jersey.
MICHIGAN (14-12) -- The Wolverines are 2-5 in true road games and 2-3 in neutral court games this year with wins over Eastern Michigan, Pitt, Minnesota and Northwestern. Michigan doesn’t force turnovers (293rd), make free-throws (66.5%) or stop the triple (37%) when away from home. The Wolverines cannot be trusted no matter how good the duo of Hunter Dickinson and Jett Howard are. If Michigan is a No. 10 or 11 seed, I like the chances they get bumped.
PROVIDENCE (19-7) -- The Friars are nowhere near the same team from last season. Providence still has its road issues, posting a 5-5 road record with a 0-2 neutral court record. The Friars are 1-4 in the last five road games. Providence doesn’t force turnovers away from home (315th) and turns it over too much (153rd). Providence is 13-1 and expected to finish 15-1 in Q3 and Q4 games, but against top competition, Q1-A and Q1, the Friars are 7-9 and expected to finish 8-11. Providence is likely a first or second round exit in the tournament.
UCONN (19-7) -- This is a hot topic. The Huskies started the season 14-0 before going 5-7 over the next 12 games. UConn is 2-5 in the last seven road games with victories at DePaul and Georgetown. The Huskies turn the ball over at 18.3% in conference play and rank middle of the league in offensive two-point and three-point percentage, a few areas you need to excel at in March. UConn beat Alabama and Oregon in neutral courts back in November, but that was a long time ago.
WISCONSIN (15-10) -- The Badgers are right in the middle of a first four in and a first four out bid, but either way, Wisconsin is a fade in the tournament. The Badgers are the worst free-throw shooting team in the country away from home (57.3%) and are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams (345th). On the road, Wisconsin is 4-5 and a combined 7-10 in Q1-A and Q1 games. The Badgers best wins away from home both came in OT at Iowa and Marquette back at the start of December.
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