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The Favorite: Gonzaga’s Drew Timme (+600)
Gonzaga’s Drew Timme will not blow you away with his physical appearance or be the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming draft, but he has a pathway to being the best College Basketball player this season.
At +600 odds to win the John R. Wooden Award, there are a few reasons why Timme will and can win.
Timme went from 9.8 points per game in his first season with the Bulldogs then 19.0 in his sophomore season. He scored 19 on 28.2 minutes per game, 7.0 reobunds, 2.3 assists and 1.4 combined blocks and steals.
He is the clear favorite to win the Wooden Award and worth a bet as Gonzaga is expected to breeze through this season once again.
Going back to 2015, Gonzaga is 94-6 on the ML versus conference opponents (94%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
The model shows 86-6 because six games did not feature odds.
The big games on the Bulldogs’ non-conference schedule are against Texas, UCLA, Duke, Alabama and Texas Tech.
Timme will be on full display, and his stats against those four squads will impact voters since Gonzaga plays a cakewalk of a non-conference schedule.
Timme scored 53 points on 22/37 shooting and grabbed 16 rebounds to open last season. His odds skyrocketed down, and I expect the same this season, so get some Timme stock before it is too late.
At +600 odds, we should expect +300 or less after a few weeks into the season.
Pick: Drew Timme to win John R. Wooden Award (1u)
The Contenders:
Kansas’ Remy Martin +800
Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson +875
Illinois’ Kofi Cockburn +1100
Villanova’s Collin Gillespie +1500
UCLA’s Johnny Juzang +1600
Texas’ Marcus Carr +1700
Texas’ Marcus Carr and Kansas’ Remy Martin make the list as contenders, but Martin is the clear choice if we chose between the two.
Texas’ Marcus Carr makes the list at 17-1 odds as a transfer from Minnesota. He will have a lot of competition for points at Texas, so do not expect 20-plus points per game from him every night. Carr averaged 19.4 points per game at Minnesota after 15.4 as a sophomore.
I do not see Carr increasing his scoring, but perhaps his 4.9 assists per game will be his claim to fame (and buzzer-beaters). Martin averaged 19.1 points per game in back-to-back seasons for Arizona State and unlike Carr, I believe Martin can score 20-plus points for the Kansas Jayhawks.
Villanova’s Collin Gillespie and UCLA’s Johnny Juzang are two options that aren’t terrible bets, but they will have to do A LOT to get votes.
Gillespie is coming back from injury, so one false move and Villanova is done without him, while the expectations on UCLA are so high that Juzang and company will have to keep their heads above water all season. I do not think either is worth a bet at this point, and I doubt they will be throughout the season.
If we choose between Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson and Illinois’ Kofi Cockburn, I would prefer the Fighting Illini’s center. Both big men take on significant roles with the teams’ primary ball-handlers graduating, transferring or going pro.
Cockburn will make more of an impact and could average a double-double this season. As a freshman, Cockburn averaged 13.3 points and 8.8 rebounds in 27.4 minutes. He played less minutes at 27.0 per game and increased his numbers to 17.7 points and 9.5 rebounds as a sophomore.
In Dickinson’s only season as a Wolverine, he averaged 14.1 points and 7.4 rebounds on 59.8% from the field and 24.9 minutes per game. Dickinson will need to play at least 27-28 minutes per game, so expect a near double-double average from Michigan’s best player.
They are the 1A and 1B of centers in college basketball, but neither is a better bet than Timme at this point.
Line Movement:
Gonzaga’s Chet Holgrem +1000
Purdue’s Jaden Ivey +2200
Baylor’s Matthew Mayer +3000
Believe it or not, these are the only three players with line value of under +4000 that have seen movement on their chances to win the Wooden Award.
Gonzaga’s star freshman, Chet Holgrem, is a decent guy to back, but not confidently. You can probably get better odds than +1000 by waiting a month into the season.
Purdue’s Jaden Ivey will see an uptick in minutes and scoring, but I would not bet him or Matthew Mayer of Baylor.
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