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The brackets are out, the game lines are posted. March is in full swing, which means one thing: it’s time to talk underdogs.
Whether you’re looking to fill out an office pool entry, earn bragging rights at the dinner table or pocket a few bucks from a moneyline ticket, this is the time of year when everyone pays attention to the teams that shouldn’t - but do. Underdogs reign supreme in the NCAA Tournament, especially over the first few chaotic days.
So to help you sift through the (many) options on the board, we have created the Underdog Rankings powered by PointsBet. Our top college basketball analysts, Thomas Casale and Vaughn Dalzell, have built a composite ranking of every underdog that will hit the court across the first two full days of March Madness. They’ll break things down by day for the first weekend, then will add rankings for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games to come next week.
These rankings are geared toward ATS figures, with the top teams viewed as most likely to cover the spread. (Inevitably, a couple will also pull the outright upset to keep those bracket hopes alive.) Those teams near the bottom of the rankings may have short stays in the tournament - and you could be well-served to look to the other side of the spread.
In fact, sometimes the oddsmakers differ from those setting the seeds. This year’s opening round features three different matchups where the lower-seeded team is actually the betting favorite, including a pair of double-digit seeds - No. 10 Loyola Chicago and No. 11 Michigan - who are slim favorites over No. 7 Ohio State and No. 6 Colorado State, respectively.
Click here to see how Thomas and Vaughn rank the March 17 underdogs, and here is a look at how they view the underdogs for the second day of games on March 18:
1. (13) Chattanooga (+7) vs. (4) Illinois
TC: The Mocs are one of the most talented mid-major teams in the country and one of the few that can deal with Illinois’ size in the paint. If Chattanooga is hitting their outside shots, they should cover this number and an outright upset is possible.
2. (12) UAB (+8.5) vs. (5) Houston
TC: Houston has just two wins over NCAA Tournament teams this season (Memphis and Bryant). Led by electric guard Jelly Walker, UAB matches up well with the No. 5 seed Cougars. This should be an entertaining, close game. Take the points with UAB.
3. (10) Davidson (+1.5) vs. (7) Michigan State
VD: The other No. 10 seed to advance, besides Loyola? I like the Wildcats. Davidson does three things well on offense: shoot the three (38.5%, 6th), free-throw shooting (75.7%, 26th) and turnover percentage (14.8%, 15th). Davidson is a tall team, ranked 44th in average height, and experienced enough to give Michigan State a dog fight in the opening round.
4. (11) Notre Dame (+4) vs. (6) Alabama
VD: I think we’ve all been waiting to fade Alabama in the NCAA Tournament, and the time has finally come. The Crimson Tide have lost three straight games and rank 270th and 305th in offensive turnover percentage and offensive three-point percentage, respectively. After knocking out Rutgers in a 2OT play-in game thriller, the Fighting Irish are a live dog to win this one outright.
5. (11) Virginia Tech (+1) vs. (6) Texas
VD: This is the toughest 6-11 game in the tournament. While Texas has the athleticism, Virginia Tech is hot at the right time entering the tournament. The Hokies have won four straight and 13 out of their last 15 games. Texas enters on a three-game losing streak, which is hard to back. If Va Tech wins this game, watch out.
6. (14) Colgate (+7) vs. (3) Wisconsin
TC: Last year, Colgate got a bad draw with Arkansas. This season the Raiders are facing a team they match up well against in Wisconsin. Colgate is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country. They are a live dog to not only cover, but pull the outright 14-over-3 upset.
7. (10) Miami (+2) vs. (7) USC
TC: Miami-USC is an intriguing matchup because the Trojans play a lot of zone defense and dare teams to shoot from the perimeter. That’s fine with Miami, a team that shoots it well from beyond the arc. The Trojans have a big size advantage, though, making this a tough game to call.
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8. (9) TCU (+1) vs. (8) Seton Hall
VD: Tom and I both have a disdain for TCU after they failed to cover against Kansas in their previous game. That sentiment isn’t aided by the fact that the Horned Frogs rank 320th or worse nationally in free-throw percentage (66.8%), three-point percentage (30.4%) and offensive turnover percentage (21.6%). Seton Hall enters as winners of six of the last seven, while TCU is 1-3 in its last four games.
9. (14) Montana State (+15) vs. (3) Texas Tech
TC: Montana State isn’t the easiest first-round opponent, and could give Texas Tech trouble for a half. But it’s only a matter of time before the vaunted Red Raiders defense takes control and Texas Tech pulls away, likely covering the big number.
10. (14) Yale (+16) vs. (3) Purdue
VD: Yale has one player taller than 6'6" in the starting lineup, so this is a tough draw against a Purdue team with Zach Edey and Trevion Williams. The Bulldogs also have the ninth-quickest average possession length on defense (16.4 seconds), so expect the Boilermakers to have plenty of chances to run up the score and possibly cover versus lower competition despite Purdue being 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.
11. (15) Jacksonville State (+15.5) vs. (2) Auburn
VD: Is Auburn back? They have the opponent to look like it. Auburn has won five of its last nine games, scoring 62 points in three of the four losses. The Tigers have struggled but they get a Gamecocks squad that ranks 258th or worse in both offensive and defensive turnover percentage, along with a 68.3% clip from the free-throw line (291st). It’s hard to back an offense like that against Auburn’s size and athleticism.
12. (11) Iowa State (+4) vs. (5) LSU
TC: LSU just fired its coach, so it’s hard to know how the Tigers will react. However, Iowa State doesn’t match up well with LSU’s aggressive defense. There are much better underdogs to invest in on Friday than the offensively-challenged Cyclones.
13. (16) Wright State (+21.5) vs. (1) Arizona
VD: If you’re not betting Gonzaga to win it all, you are probably taking Arizona. With that being said, Wright State is going to be overmatched. While the Raiders have scored at least 71 points in nine straight games, they’ll likely struggle to score and keep pace against the second-tallest team in the country.
14. (7) Ohio State (+1) vs. (10) Loyola Chicago
TC: The Buckeyes stumbled into the tournament, losing four of their last five. The committee did Ohio State no favors by pitting them up with a Loyola Chicago squad that shoots the lights out from three. The Ramblers are a dangerous team, and the Buckeyes are likely to go home early for the second straight year.
15. (15) Delaware (+15.5) vs. (2) Villanova
VD: I am so low on Delaware in this game that I passed on $50 tickets to watch them in Pittsburgh. The Blue Hens have held their last three opponents to 12-of-61 from three (19.6%), but they get a real test with Villanova (35.9% from three on the season). In Delaware’s three losses against top-100 teams, the average margin of loss was 14 points.
16. (15) Cal State Fullerton (+18) vs. (2) Duke
TC: A lot of people are looking to fade Duke, but the first round isn’t the time to do it. The Blue Devils got a good draw facing a Cal State Fullerton defense that is one of the worst in college basketball at defending the three-point shot. Wait a round to fade Duke. The Blue Devils cruise in their opener.
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